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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
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862 FXUS63 KABR 031127 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 627 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather this evening across south central South Dakota, mainly along and south of Interstate 90. The main threats with the stronger storms will be large hail and strong wind gusts. - Rain showers, and a few thunderstorms, will occur across the area tonight and through the day Thursday, making for a cooler and soggy Fourth of July. - The active weather pattern of showers and thunderstorms persists into Friday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 623 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 See updated aviation discussion below. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/... Issued at 308 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Upper level zonal flow across the area today will give way to a shortwave trough approaching from the west and tracking across the Northern Plains late tonight and Thursday. At the surface, weak high pressure will be over the region this morning. A low pressure system will approach the area from the west, with a warm front setting up over southern South Dakota. This front may be the focus for thunderstorms late this afternoon and this evening, mainly along and south of Interstate 90. This is highlighted by a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather. The better chances will stay south of the CWA, but cannot rule out a stray storm or two reaching Jones or Lyman counties. The cold front associated with the low will then gradually drift eastward tonight and Thursday, and in association with the upper level shortwave, will be the focus for precipitation. Instability will be minimal, but there will be some shear (35 to 45 knots) available tonight, so may see some thunderstorm development. During the day Thursday, both instability and shear are minimal across the CWA, so expect the precipitation to be mainly in the form of rain showers. Current CAMS are indicating the potential for a period of more widespread rain in the morning, then becoming more scattered in the afternoon, but overall looking like a cooler, soggy Fourth of July. High temperatures today will be in the lower to mid 80s. Low temperatures tonight will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Highs on Thursday will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 308 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Thursday evening, the upper level low is over eastern SD and will be moving east through the night. Friday through Saturday, we are in north to northwest flow aloft. Sunday, another low comes down from Canada and clips northeast SD with the trough spreading across all of SD. We remain in a trough pattern through the end of the period. Thursday evening, showers and non-severe thunderstorms are expected across the region. Chances of exceeding an inch max out at 30% in eastern SD and decrease to the west. Rain chances don`t really go away until Monday. However, Friday and Saturday`s highest PoPs look to be around 30 to 40%. Accumulations through Saturday morning (48 hours starting Thursday morning) have a 60% chance of exceeding half an inch in eastern SD and a 10% chance of exceeding half an inch in central SD. Higher chances move in Saturday evening into the overnight hours with 50 to 65% PoPs over far northeast SD. Early Sunday morning, these PoPs spread to cover the James River valley and points east and then decrease into the afternoon. There are some slight chances (up to 15%) for some sprinkles through the end of the period but no measurable precipitation is expected. Temperatures will be around average through the period with highs in the 80s. Winds are still expected to be around normal through the term. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 623 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG For the most part, VFR conditions will prevail across the area today and tonight. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over south central South Dakota this evening and overnight. Periods of MVFR vsby will be possible with any thunderstorms. Some of this activity could hold together long enough to reach east central South Dakota late in the TAF period, but due to uncertainty, will not mention in the KATY TAF. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Parkin LONG TERM...KK AVIATION...Parkin