170
FXUS65 KABQ 160528 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1128 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Heat will be the name of the game for the foreseeable future.
Triple digit temperatures will prevail for the lower elevations of
the Rio Grande Valley and much of the eastern plains for the next
seven days. Vulnerable populations and those that are sensitive to
heat will be at risk for heat illness without effective cooling
or adequate hydration. Showers and thunderstorms will be few and
far between for the remainder of today, but isolated storms are
expected Friday across the Southwest and South Central Mountains.
After Friday, isolated storms will be focused across western and
northern New Mexico through the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024

A drier airmass has pushed into the forecast area behind an early
week upper level trough and ahead of a building 595 to 596 dam upper
high currently centered over southern AZ. PWATs have dropped to
around half an inch across most of central and western NM with PWATs
around 0.75 across the eastern plains due to a weak backdoor front
that moved through the region this morning. For the rest of the
afternoon and evening until around sunset, there could be some stray
showers and storms across the south central mountains south of
Ruidoso due to the daytime heating, and across far northeast NM near
Raton and Capulin due to some upslope flow behind this morning`s
backdoor front. Little if any precipitation is expected. A cool
night is expected across the region due to dry air and clearing
skies.

On Friday, the upper high center moves squarely overhead New Mexico
strengthening to around 597 dam. As a result, temperatures will heat
up a few more degrees from today to unseasonably hot readings for
mid August, with the most noticeable warming across the eastern
plains. Lower elevations across central and western NM will heat up
into the low to mid 90s with upper 90s to around 100 across the
middle to lower RGV, including ABQ and Socorro. Temperatures around
100 will be common across the eastern plains, with temperatures
around 105 in Chaves County, including Roswell. The daily records
for Albuquerque and Roswell are 99 and 104 degrees, respectively.
Given the above factors for Albuquerque and Roswell and with the
experimental heat risk showing a major (level 3/4) risk for these
locations, have opted to issue a Heat Advisory for these zones
tomorrow afternoon and evening. In terms of shower and storm
chances, they will be nil to slim due to the subsidence inversion
aloft. However, few locations could overcome this subsidence
inversion for stray to isolated storms to develop. This includes the
south central mountains in Lincoln County and southwest mountains in
Catron County, due to slightly higher mid level moisture moving in
from the south and increasing PWATS to around 0.75 inches. A few
stray showers and storms can`t be ruled out across the eastern
plains due to a weak surface boundary across the region, but it`s
dependent on if intense surface heating can overcome the subsidence
inversion at around 500 to 600 mb. Little if any wetting
precipitation is expected from this activity. Any shower and storm
activity quickly dissipate around sunset with the loss of daytime

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024

The upper level high will inch to the northeast on Saturday,
likely centered over NE NM, and will remain around 597dam at H5.
Unfortunately, the high will steer the moisture plume westward
into AZ and perhaps far western NM. Therefore, the best chances
for precipitation will be across the west. However, there will be
meager moisture advection at low to mid levels elsewhere as the H7
high is positioned near the west TX/OK border. Thus, can`t rule
out a stray storm along the Central Mountain Chain as well. Given
the relatively lower dewpoints anticipated Saturday afternoon, any
storm that develops will have the potential for gusty outflow
winds.

Drier mid level air works its way into NM from the east on Sunday,
thus less chances for a stray storm near the Central Mountain
Chain, but isolated storms will possible across the north and
west. The upper high will move little, though may strengthen to
598dam.

The upper high will have an affinity for NM for the remainder of
the forecast period as it is progged to wobble over NM through
the end of next week. This will mean continued slim chances of
precipitation and hot temperatures. An inverted trough looks to
slide westward across Old Mexico late Monday and into AZ by late
Tuesday. This looks to increase moisture and precipitation
chances, but mainly for AZ as the upper high will still be too
strong and too far west over NM. It`s possible some of the
moisture from this disturbance could work back into NM later next
week as it rounds the upper high, especially if the high shifts
eastward a bit. Fingers crossed. We`ll also be watching a boundary
that will be draped across far northeast NM Monday through
Wednesday which could be a focus for thunderstorms.

The main story will continue to be the heat in the long term.
Record or near record heat is likely for several locations. Many
locations in the Rio Grande Valley and eastern plains will
breach the century mark for several days in a row. Those having
outdoor activities should remember to take frequent breaks in the
shade or A/C and drink plenty of water.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1121 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024

A backdoor front has passed through the Rio Grande Valley, but
will get washed out in the next few hours as it moves westward
towards the Continental Divide. A couple of showers are currently
ongoing in the southwest mountains, but those should not persist
past 09Z. Isolated showers and storms this afternoon will favor
the southwest and south-central mountains, although a few storms
are possible in the northeast plains as well. VFR conditions
currently prevail and will continue to persist through the TAF
period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024

No critical fire weather conditions are expected during the forecast
period due to a strong upper level high pressure overhead. Hot and
dry weather will be the main story through at least mid next week.
Temperatures will be around record territory for mid-August. Shower
and storm coverage will be pretty isolated and limited to the
southern high terrain tomorrow, increasing slightly across the
northern and western high terrain this weekend through the middle of
next week as some moisture sneaks up under the anomalously strong
Monsoon High. Any wetting precipitation will be confined to the high
elevations since storms will struggle to maintain their strength as
they come off the mountains. Afternoon humidities will bottom out in
the teens and twenties each afternoon areawide.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  58  95  59  96 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  48  89  49  92 /   0   0   0   5
Cuba............................  53  89  56  92 /   0   0   0  10
Gallup..........................  51  92  53  93 /   0   0   0  20
El Morro........................  58  87  60  88 /   0   5   5  30
Grants..........................  50  92  55  93 /   0  10   0  20
Quemado.........................  58  89  60  90 /  10  10  10  50
Magdalena.......................  64  91  65  92 /  10  10   5  20
Datil...........................  59  88  59  88 /  20  20  10  30
Reserve.........................  57  94  59  93 /  10  20  20  40
Glenwood........................  69  99  69  97 /  20  10  10  30
Chama...........................  48  83  49  87 /   0   0   0  10
Los Alamos......................  63  87  64  89 /   0   0   0  20
Pecos...........................  59  89  62  90 /   0   5   0  10
Cerro/Questa....................  53  85  54  87 /   0   5   0  10
Red River.......................  48  76  49  78 /   0   5   0  10
Angel Fire......................  37  81  34  82 /   0  10   0   5
Taos............................  50  90  48  90 /   0   0   0   5
Mora............................  52  86  55  87 /   0   5   0  10
Espanola........................  61  95  60  97 /   0   0   0   5
Santa Fe........................  63  90  64  92 /   0   5   0  10
Santa Fe Airport................  62  94  62  95 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  69  96  71  96 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  67  98  69  99 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  64 100  66 100 /   0   0   5   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  68  98  69  99 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  66 100  66 100 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  65 100  67 100 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  64 100  65  99 /   0   0   5   0
Corrales........................  67  99  68 100 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  66 100  67 100 /   0   0   5   0
Placitas........................  66  96  67  96 /   0   0   0   5
Rio Rancho......................  67  99  68  99 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  69 101  70 101 /   5   0   5   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  61  90  62  90 /   0   0   0  10
Tijeras.........................  63  92  65  93 /   0   0   0  10
Edgewood........................  57  93  58  94 /   0   0   0  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  54  95  52  94 /   0   0   0   5
Clines Corners..................  57  91  59  90 /   0   0   0   5
Mountainair.....................  60  92  60  92 /   0   5   0   5
Gran Quivira....................  60  92  61  92 /   0   5   0  10
Carrizozo.......................  67  95  67  95 /   0  10   0  10
Ruidoso.........................  62  87  60  87 /   0  20   0  20
Capulin.........................  56  89  57  92 /   0   5   0   0
Raton...........................  55  94  57  96 /   5   5   0   0
Springer........................  56  95  56  96 /   5   5   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  55  91  57  92 /   0   5   0   5
Clayton.........................  63  98  65  96 /   0  20   5   0
Roy.............................  59  93  61  93 /   0   5   0   0
Conchas.........................  64 101  65 101 /   0  10   5   0
Santa Rosa......................  62  98  64  97 /   0  10   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  64 102  68 101 /   0  10  10   0
Clovis..........................  69 100  70 101 /   0  10   0   0
Portales........................  68 101  70 101 /   5  10   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  66 100  68 100 /   0  10   0   0
Roswell.........................  72 105  73 105 /   0  10   5   0
Picacho.........................  66  98  66  96 /   0  10   5   5
Elk.............................  62  95  62  94 /   0  20   0  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for NMZ219-238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...16