009
FXUS65 KABQ 290717
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
117 AM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1217 AM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast
  again today, mainly along and east of the central mountain chain
  of New Mexico. Slow storm motion will keep a low risk for flash
  flooding, mainly on recent burn scars.

- Abundant moisture returns Monday through at least Thursday
  allowing for greater coverages of showers and thunderstorms each
  afternoon and evening. These will be efficient rain producing
  storms which will increase the risk of flash flooding,
  especially over recent burn scars.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1217 AM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025

The North American monsoon high is building over eastern AZ and
western NM today with very dry air (PWATs of 0.2-0.4 inch) beneath
its core. This leaves the better moisture in place along and east
of the central mountain chain and also in the southern tier of NM
which is where storms will develop today via diurnal heating.
Scattered storms are projected over the Sacramento mountains
today, but most high resolution models indicate the bulk of
activity staying south of Lincoln county, so no Flash Flood Watch
is planned. A belt of stronger westerlies is ushering a shortwave
trough into southern Manitoba and the far northern plains states
today, and this send a weaker tandem shortwave into eastern CO
with some scant forcing expected to assist storms initiate off of
the Sangre de Cristos and roll southeastward. The higher
resolution CAMs were keying on this yesterday and are again this
morning, indicating cells moving into the east central plains
through the evening and exiting NM near or shortly after midnight.
Storms to the east of the central mountain chain will drive
outflows through gaps and canyons, impacting ABQ with easterly
gusts tonight (gusts of 30 to 40 mph).

The moist outflows will send higher dewpoints west toward the AZ
border tonight into Monday morning. While the western fringe of
this moisture advection will retreat eastward some into the early
afternoon Monday, the moisture will set the stage for a much more
active convection day with PWATs ranging from 0.75 to 1.25 from
the Divide to the eastern NM border. The easterly surface wind
component will also be retained for much of the area into the
afternoon, generally the Continental Divide eastward, and this
will provide upslope to assist storm initiation on the east faces
of the Divide and the central mountain chain. With the monsoon
high parked just south of the Four Corners, steering flow will be
very slow, and east slope areas that retain uninhibited upslope
inflow will have a tendency to sustain cells anchored to the
terrain, leading to localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding.
Very high QPF is pegged over the Sangre de Cristos Monday
afternoon, and the central highlands to the eastern plains will
likely remain active through much of Monday evening. Areas west of
the Divide will tend to be less efficient at rainfall production
with virga and/or dry storms likely Monday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1217 AM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Moist outflows will help advance deeper moisture farther into
central and western NM Monday night through early Tuesday. Surface
winds would veer more southeasterly in most zones by Tuesday
afternoon, and PWATs would fight toward 1.0 inch in central NM
and even close to this in most western zones. Other than the San
Juan basin in northwestern NM, much of the forecast area should
observe at least isolated storms Tuesday with an uptick in the
southwestern mountains and numerous cells still near/east of the
central mountain chain. The higher humidity and increased clouds
and precip will send temperatures below average in most zones,
especially in the east.

The moisture will stay put into Wednesday and Thursday, keeping
daily rounds of scattered to numerous slow moving showers and
thunderstorms going. Looking upstream, we will be watching a
Pacific low that will be moving inland over CA and then over the
Colorado river basin by Thursday. This will introduce drier
westerly flow aloft into NM by Thursday night into Friday,
reducing storm development significantly. By Saturday, the monsoon
high becomes less prominent, blending ambiguously with the Bermuda
high. Moisture would remain deepest in the eastern zones, and a
potential surface boundary arriving in the northeast looks to be
the main catalyst for storms Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1125 PM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025

VFR (Visual Flight Rules) conditions will prevail through early
Sunday afternoon with a gradual clearing trend. Hot temperatures
will on Sunday will create high density altitude readings that
will suggest poor aircraft performance for some. New cumulus
clouds will build over the mountains in the early afternoon,
especially over the central mountain chain of New Mexico, and this
will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms that will
generally drift slowly southeastward through the late afternoon,
impacting the northeast to east central plains through the early
evening Sunday. Storms will be capable of hail, gusty downburst
winds, and brief heavy downpours that will temporarily lower
ceilings/visibility. Gusty east canyon winds will also spill into
the central Rio Grande valley (including at KABQ) Sunday
evening. Most of the storm activity will come to an end or exit
New Mexico before midnight Sunday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1217 AM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Very dry conditions will prevail today in western and central NM
with afternoon humidity plummeting to 5 to 10 percent in most
zones while temperatures soar into the upper 80`s and 90`s. Just
enough mid level moisture will be present for a stray dry
thunderstorm or two over the southwestern mountains (FWZ109) this
afternoon, and this will likely be the primary weather concern
today. East of the central mountain chain, isolated to scattered
storms will be observed in the afternoon and early evening,
eventually sending moist outflows westward tonight into early
Monday. This will lead to much better humidity recoveries Monday
morning with much of the eastern half of the state reaching 80 to
90 percent and even areas between the Continental Divide and Rio
Grande rising to near 50 to 60 percent. Storms will consequently
spread and expand westward into Monday. While anywhere east of the
Divide will have a chance for storms Monday, the focus will be
along and east of the central mountain chain where soaking, if not
flooding, rains are likely. Just west of the Divide, storms would
be drier with a greater potential for new lightning ignitions.

Into Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday the moisture will continue
deepening and fighting its way west toward AZ. This will increase
the footprints of soaking rainfall, but given the dry fuels in
far western NM, this will still be an area of concern for new
lightning ignitions as storms multiply there, especially on
Tuesday. By Friday and Saturday, drier air moves in from the west.
Storm chances will reduce considerably, but afternoon humidity
values should remain in the 15 to 25 percent range over western NM,
far better than today`s readings.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  96  62  96  62 /   0   0   5   5
Dulce...........................  91  47  89  45 /   0   0  40  10
Cuba............................  91  55  87  54 /   0   0  40  20
Gallup..........................  93  49  93  53 /   0   0   5  10
El Morro........................  89  54  87  54 /   0   0  20  20
Grants..........................  92  52  89  54 /   0   0  30  20
Quemado.........................  90  56  89  57 /   0   0  30  20
Magdalena.......................  90  61  88  59 /   5   0  50  40
Datil...........................  88  57  86  55 /  10   5  40  30
Reserve.........................  97  53  96  53 /  10   0  30  20
Glenwood........................ 101  58  99  57 /  10   5  30  20
Chama...........................  84  47  81  45 /   5   0  60  20
Los Alamos......................  88  60  82  57 /   5   5  70  30
Pecos...........................  87  56  80  54 /  10  10  80  50
Cerro/Questa....................  85  53  81  51 /  20  10  80  30
Red River.......................  75  44  70  43 /  20  10  80  30
Angel Fire......................  79  39  73  42 /  20  10  80  30
Taos............................  88  51  83  50 /  10   5  70  30
Mora............................  84  49  76  48 /  20  10  80  40
Espanola........................  95  58  89  57 /   5   5  60  30
Santa Fe........................  89  59  84  57 /  10   5  70  40
Santa Fe Airport................  93  59  87  56 /   5   5  60  40
Albuquerque Foothills...........  96  67  92  64 /   0   5  50  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  97  65  94  63 /   0   0  40  40
Albuquerque Valley..............  99  64  97  63 /   0   0  40  40
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  98  65  94  64 /   0   0  40  30
Belen...........................  98  61  96  61 /   0   0  30  40
Bernalillo......................  98  64  94  62 /   0   0  50  30
Bosque Farms....................  98  60  95  60 /   0   0  40  40
Corrales........................  99  64  95  64 /   0   0  40  30
Los Lunas.......................  98  62  96  62 /   0   0  40  40
Placitas........................  94  64  90  62 /   0   5  50  30
Rio Rancho......................  98  64  94  63 /   0   0  40  30
Socorro......................... 100  66  97  64 /   0   0  40  40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  90  57  86  56 /   0   5  60  40
Tijeras.........................  94  59  90  58 /   0   5  60  50
Edgewood........................  92  54  87  54 /   5   5  60  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  91  52  87  52 /   5  10  60  50
Clines Corners..................  86  55  79  53 /  10  10  60  60
Mountainair.....................  90  55  86  55 /   5   5  60  60
Gran Quivira....................  89  55  84  55 /  10  10  70  60
Carrizozo.......................  91  62  88  61 /  20  10  60  60
Ruidoso.........................  83  56  79  56 /  40  10  70  50
Capulin.........................  83  51  74  52 /  40  40  70  50
Raton...........................  88  52  79  53 /  30  20  80  40
Springer........................  89  54  82  54 /  30  20  80  40
Las Vegas.......................  87  51  78  52 /  20  10  70  50
Clayton.........................  91  59  81  59 /  30  50  40  50
Roy.............................  88  57  79  57 /  30  30  60  60
Conchas.........................  94  62  87  62 /  20  40  60  60
Santa Rosa......................  92  60  84  59 /  20  30  60  70
Tucumcari.......................  92  62  83  60 /  20  50  60  70
Clovis..........................  93  64  85  62 /  10  40  60  80
Portales........................  94  64  86  62 /  10  30  70  80
Fort Sumner.....................  95  64  87  62 /  10  30  60  70
Roswell.........................  97  69  92  67 /  10  20  50  70
Picacho.........................  91  62  87  60 /  30  10  70  60
Elk.............................  89  58  84  57 /  40  10  70  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52