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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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170 FXUS65 KABQ 160528 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1128 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Heat will be the name of the game for the foreseeable future. Triple digit temperatures will prevail for the lower elevations of the Rio Grande Valley and much of the eastern plains for the next seven days. Vulnerable populations and those that are sensitive to heat will be at risk for heat illness without effective cooling or adequate hydration. Showers and thunderstorms will be few and far between for the remainder of today, but isolated storms are expected Friday across the Southwest and South Central Mountains. After Friday, isolated storms will be focused across western and northern New Mexico through the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024 A drier airmass has pushed into the forecast area behind an early week upper level trough and ahead of a building 595 to 596 dam upper high currently centered over southern AZ. PWATs have dropped to around half an inch across most of central and western NM with PWATs around 0.75 across the eastern plains due to a weak backdoor front that moved through the region this morning. For the rest of the afternoon and evening until around sunset, there could be some stray showers and storms across the south central mountains south of Ruidoso due to the daytime heating, and across far northeast NM near Raton and Capulin due to some upslope flow behind this morning`s backdoor front. Little if any precipitation is expected. A cool night is expected across the region due to dry air and clearing skies. On Friday, the upper high center moves squarely overhead New Mexico strengthening to around 597 dam. As a result, temperatures will heat up a few more degrees from today to unseasonably hot readings for mid August, with the most noticeable warming across the eastern plains. Lower elevations across central and western NM will heat up into the low to mid 90s with upper 90s to around 100 across the middle to lower RGV, including ABQ and Socorro. Temperatures around 100 will be common across the eastern plains, with temperatures around 105 in Chaves County, including Roswell. The daily records for Albuquerque and Roswell are 99 and 104 degrees, respectively. Given the above factors for Albuquerque and Roswell and with the experimental heat risk showing a major (level 3/4) risk for these locations, have opted to issue a Heat Advisory for these zones tomorrow afternoon and evening. In terms of shower and storm chances, they will be nil to slim due to the subsidence inversion aloft. However, few locations could overcome this subsidence inversion for stray to isolated storms to develop. This includes the south central mountains in Lincoln County and southwest mountains in Catron County, due to slightly higher mid level moisture moving in from the south and increasing PWATS to around 0.75 inches. A few stray showers and storms can`t be ruled out across the eastern plains due to a weak surface boundary across the region, but it`s dependent on if intense surface heating can overcome the subsidence inversion at around 500 to 600 mb. Little if any wetting precipitation is expected from this activity. Any shower and storm activity quickly dissipate around sunset with the loss of daytime && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024 The upper level high will inch to the northeast on Saturday, likely centered over NE NM, and will remain around 597dam at H5. Unfortunately, the high will steer the moisture plume westward into AZ and perhaps far western NM. Therefore, the best chances for precipitation will be across the west. However, there will be meager moisture advection at low to mid levels elsewhere as the H7 high is positioned near the west TX/OK border. Thus, can`t rule out a stray storm along the Central Mountain Chain as well. Given the relatively lower dewpoints anticipated Saturday afternoon, any storm that develops will have the potential for gusty outflow winds. Drier mid level air works its way into NM from the east on Sunday, thus less chances for a stray storm near the Central Mountain Chain, but isolated storms will possible across the north and west. The upper high will move little, though may strengthen to 598dam. The upper high will have an affinity for NM for the remainder of the forecast period as it is progged to wobble over NM through the end of next week. This will mean continued slim chances of precipitation and hot temperatures. An inverted trough looks to slide westward across Old Mexico late Monday and into AZ by late Tuesday. This looks to increase moisture and precipitation chances, but mainly for AZ as the upper high will still be too strong and too far west over NM. It`s possible some of the moisture from this disturbance could work back into NM later next week as it rounds the upper high, especially if the high shifts eastward a bit. Fingers crossed. We`ll also be watching a boundary that will be draped across far northeast NM Monday through Wednesday which could be a focus for thunderstorms. The main story will continue to be the heat in the long term. Record or near record heat is likely for several locations. Many locations in the Rio Grande Valley and eastern plains will breach the century mark for several days in a row. Those having outdoor activities should remember to take frequent breaks in the shade or A/C and drink plenty of water. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1121 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024 A backdoor front has passed through the Rio Grande Valley, but will get washed out in the next few hours as it moves westward towards the Continental Divide. A couple of showers are currently ongoing in the southwest mountains, but those should not persist past 09Z. Isolated showers and storms this afternoon will favor the southwest and south-central mountains, although a few storms are possible in the northeast plains as well. VFR conditions currently prevail and will continue to persist through the TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024 No critical fire weather conditions are expected during the forecast period due to a strong upper level high pressure overhead. Hot and dry weather will be the main story through at least mid next week. Temperatures will be around record territory for mid-August. Shower and storm coverage will be pretty isolated and limited to the southern high terrain tomorrow, increasing slightly across the northern and western high terrain this weekend through the middle of next week as some moisture sneaks up under the anomalously strong Monsoon High. Any wetting precipitation will be confined to the high elevations since storms will struggle to maintain their strength as they come off the mountains. Afternoon humidities will bottom out in the teens and twenties each afternoon areawide. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 58 95 59 96 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 48 89 49 92 / 0 0 0 5 Cuba............................ 53 89 56 92 / 0 0 0 10 Gallup.......................... 51 92 53 93 / 0 0 0 20 El Morro........................ 58 87 60 88 / 0 5 5 30 Grants.......................... 50 92 55 93 / 0 10 0 20 Quemado......................... 58 89 60 90 / 10 10 10 50 Magdalena....................... 64 91 65 92 / 10 10 5 20 Datil........................... 59 88 59 88 / 20 20 10 30 Reserve......................... 57 94 59 93 / 10 20 20 40 Glenwood........................ 69 99 69 97 / 20 10 10 30 Chama........................... 48 83 49 87 / 0 0 0 10 Los Alamos...................... 63 87 64 89 / 0 0 0 20 Pecos........................... 59 89 62 90 / 0 5 0 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 53 85 54 87 / 0 5 0 10 Red River....................... 48 76 49 78 / 0 5 0 10 Angel Fire...................... 37 81 34 82 / 0 10 0 5 Taos............................ 50 90 48 90 / 0 0 0 5 Mora............................ 52 86 55 87 / 0 5 0 10 Espanola........................ 61 95 60 97 / 0 0 0 5 Santa Fe........................ 63 90 64 92 / 0 5 0 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 62 94 62 95 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 69 96 71 96 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 67 98 69 99 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 64 100 66 100 / 0 0 5 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 68 98 69 99 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 66 100 66 100 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 65 100 67 100 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 64 100 65 99 / 0 0 5 0 Corrales........................ 67 99 68 100 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 66 100 67 100 / 0 0 5 0 Placitas........................ 66 96 67 96 / 0 0 0 5 Rio Rancho...................... 67 99 68 99 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 69 101 70 101 / 5 0 5 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 61 90 62 90 / 0 0 0 10 Tijeras......................... 63 92 65 93 / 0 0 0 10 Edgewood........................ 57 93 58 94 / 0 0 0 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 54 95 52 94 / 0 0 0 5 Clines Corners.................. 57 91 59 90 / 0 0 0 5 Mountainair..................... 60 92 60 92 / 0 5 0 5 Gran Quivira.................... 60 92 61 92 / 0 5 0 10 Carrizozo....................... 67 95 67 95 / 0 10 0 10 Ruidoso......................... 62 87 60 87 / 0 20 0 20 Capulin......................... 56 89 57 92 / 0 5 0 0 Raton........................... 55 94 57 96 / 5 5 0 0 Springer........................ 56 95 56 96 / 5 5 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 55 91 57 92 / 0 5 0 5 Clayton......................... 63 98 65 96 / 0 20 5 0 Roy............................. 59 93 61 93 / 0 5 0 0 Conchas......................... 64 101 65 101 / 0 10 5 0 Santa Rosa...................... 62 98 64 97 / 0 10 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 64 102 68 101 / 0 10 10 0 Clovis.......................... 69 100 70 101 / 0 10 0 0 Portales........................ 68 101 70 101 / 5 10 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 66 100 68 100 / 0 10 0 0 Roswell......................... 72 105 73 105 / 0 10 5 0 Picacho......................... 66 98 66 96 / 0 10 5 5 Elk............................. 62 95 62 94 / 0 20 0 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for NMZ219-238. && $$ SHORT TERM...71 LONG TERM....34 AVIATION...16