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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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717 FXUS65 KABQ 111722 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1122 AM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 157 AM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Moisture and daytime heating across western and northern New Mexico today will lead to scattered storms in the afternoon and early evening. Temperatures will also continue to warm up today with many locations in central valleys and the eastern plains reaching the 90`s and low 100`s by late afternoon. A fairly typical early August monsoon pattern will persist into Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday with storms generally continuing to be concentrated over the western and central high terrain areas of New Mexico while the eastern plains remain mostly dry and hotter than normal. The arrival of some drier air on Thursday and Friday could limit the development of showers and storms, but rain chances will not fully disappear from the forecast. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 157 AM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Today is expected to be a near-repeat of Saturday but with a slight increase in storm coverage. A 595dm H5 high centered over south- central NM will drift west while another subtle shortwave trough moves southeast across northeast NM. Small footprints of heavy rainfall are likely again today the slow and erratic storm motions. A strong storm or two is still possible over northeast NM where better lift and shear is present beneath the upper level shortwave. Max temps are expected to trend a degree or two warmer with Roswell edging closer to 105F. More notable changes to the monsoon pattern will begin tonight as a complex interaction of atmospheric features evolves across the southwest CONUS. A warm-core low currently over southern Sonora will continue moving northwest toward southwest AZ today ahead of an upper trough approaching the west coast. Meanwhile, a broad upper trough over the Great Plains will be moving east into the MS River Valley. These features will split the monsoon high with one lobe reorganizing farther east into TX while deep-layer south to north flow develops over western NM Monday. This pattern will allow very rich moisture across northwest MX to surge northward into AZ and western NM with a significant uptick in storm coverage possible for areas along and west of the Cont Divide. There is some uncertainty with how far east the heavier rainfall chances will occur so any changes to PoPs may be most notable along the central mt chain. Flash Flood Watches may be warranted once again for HPCC and the Sacramento Complex as early as Monday. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 157 AM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024 With Monday`s increased storm coverage, a few more cells may have potential to redevelop along outflows and the leading edges of mesoscale cold pools, perhaps as far east as the east central to northeastern plains Monday evening. The prognosis for Tuesday is for the upper high to be situated near the Ark-La-Tx region. Earlier model runs were indicating a potential easterly wave that would be moving into MX, but last evening`s runs have dampened and lost this feature. This should create a less interrupted subtropical tap of moisture for Tuesday, albeit a short-lived one. The blended POP guidance still seemed far too high and after coordination with EPZ, these values were lowered significantly while still retaining likely (60 percent) values over the western high terrain zones, and over portions of the northern mountain zones. Widespread PWATs of 0.9 to 1.0 inch would keep the threat for locally heavy rain going. Perhaps a few training cells would also be possible over the same spots in western zones as storms drift north northeastward. Hot temperatures would persist in the central valleys and eastern plains Tuesday. There would be a hint of some west/southwesterlies aloft moving over the Four Corners on Tuesday, turning westerly along the NM- CO border on Wednesday as a shortwave trough crosses. Meanwhile the high to our east would stay put while an eastern Pacific high also nudges inland toward the lower CO river basin on Wednesday. This would keep light, disrupted flow over NM with some drier air pushing into north central NM while most remaining areas retain similar moisture values to that of Tuesday. Blended POP guidance lowers a bit, and it`s difficult to argue against this with the aforementioned disruption to the southerly tap of subtropical moisture. Storms would once again be hardest to come by in the east central to southeastern plains zones Wednesday where temperatures will also be hottest. The western high builds more squarely over AZ on Thursday with a notable slug of dry air wrapping into many of our western and central zones. This may not fully shut down convection in these zones Thursday, but it will minimalize it and reduce rainfall efficiency with higher based storms. The high over AZ then shifts over NM on Friday with more dry air cycling clockwise over the state with a meager crop of showers and thunderstorms expected. Other than the Four Corners area, most zones will run 3 to 7 degrees above average for daytime high temperatures Friday. Into next weekend, we will be watching how far east the high moves in response to a very unseasonably deep low that will be moving toward the Pacific Northwest states. If nudged far enough east (as the ECMWF is advertising), this would reintroduce the southerly subtropical tap of moisture, at least for eastern AZ and western NM. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1120 AM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Another round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon across western and northern NM. Probs for TSRA at each TAF site is relative low (20-30%), thus TAFs are predominately covered with VCTS. Some gusty winds and brief heavy rain can be expected. Most activity should wane after sunset with the exception of the Four Corners region where activity may linger through 12/12Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 157 AM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024 There are no critical fire weather conditions over the next 7 days. A more traditional monsoon pattern is expected thru mid week as high pressure gradually moves east of NM. Storm motion will become more south to north or southwest to northeast. The threat for locally heavy rainfall will increase each day with the primary focus over the western half of NM. Temps will be near to above normal for mid August with the hottest and driest weather focused over east-central and southeast NM. Forecast confidence decreases with the extended weather pattern by Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 88 64 86 64 / 20 30 30 30 Dulce........................... 83 51 84 53 / 50 40 50 40 Cuba............................ 85 57 85 57 / 30 30 50 50 Gallup.......................... 87 57 86 57 / 50 30 50 30 El Morro........................ 83 56 82 55 / 60 40 70 50 Grants.......................... 87 60 86 60 / 50 40 70 50 Quemado......................... 86 57 84 56 / 50 40 70 50 Magdalena....................... 88 64 87 62 / 40 20 50 40 Datil........................... 85 57 84 55 / 40 30 70 40 Reserve......................... 91 57 88 56 / 50 40 80 40 Glenwood........................ 95 66 94 64 / 40 30 70 30 Chama........................... 77 50 77 51 / 60 30 70 40 Los Alamos...................... 84 62 84 62 / 40 20 60 40 Pecos........................... 85 59 86 56 / 30 20 60 50 Cerro/Questa.................... 79 52 80 53 / 60 30 70 40 Red River....................... 70 47 71 45 / 60 20 80 40 Angel Fire...................... 75 44 76 45 / 50 20 60 30 Taos............................ 84 54 84 54 / 40 20 50 30 Mora............................ 82 53 81 52 / 40 20 60 40 Espanola........................ 90 62 90 61 / 30 20 40 40 Santa Fe........................ 85 62 86 62 / 30 20 50 50 Santa Fe Airport................ 89 61 90 60 / 30 20 40 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 92 69 93 66 / 40 20 40 50 Albuquerque Heights............. 94 69 94 68 / 40 30 40 40 Albuquerque Valley.............. 96 68 96 62 / 40 30 30 40 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 95 68 95 66 / 30 30 30 40 Belen........................... 96 67 96 65 / 30 20 30 40 Bernalillo...................... 95 67 95 64 / 30 30 40 40 Bosque Farms.................... 96 65 95 61 / 30 30 30 40 Corrales........................ 96 67 95 64 / 30 30 30 40 Los Lunas....................... 96 66 95 62 / 30 30 30 40 Placitas........................ 92 66 92 64 / 40 30 40 40 Rio Rancho...................... 94 68 94 66 / 30 30 30 40 Socorro......................... 98 70 98 68 / 20 10 20 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 86 63 86 60 / 40 20 50 40 Tijeras......................... 91 63 91 62 / 40 20 50 50 Edgewood........................ 90 60 90 60 / 30 10 50 40 Moriarty/Estancia............... 91 57 90 55 / 20 10 40 40 Clines Corners.................. 86 59 86 57 / 20 10 40 40 Mountainair..................... 89 61 89 59 / 30 10 40 40 Gran Quivira.................... 89 61 89 59 / 20 10 40 40 Carrizozo....................... 93 68 93 66 / 10 5 30 40 Ruidoso......................... 85 62 85 56 / 20 5 30 30 Capulin......................... 84 56 82 57 / 30 30 60 30 Raton........................... 89 55 87 56 / 30 30 50 30 Springer........................ 90 57 88 57 / 30 20 50 30 Las Vegas....................... 87 56 86 55 / 30 20 50 40 Clayton......................... 92 62 86 64 / 20 30 30 30 Roy............................. 90 61 88 62 / 30 20 30 30 Conchas......................... 98 66 97 66 / 20 20 20 30 Santa Rosa...................... 94 65 94 65 / 20 20 20 30 Tucumcari....................... 98 65 97 66 / 20 20 20 30 Clovis.......................... 99 70 99 68 / 10 20 20 20 Portales........................ 99 70 99 67 / 10 10 10 20 Fort Sumner..................... 98 69 98 68 / 20 20 20 30 Roswell......................... 104 73 104 72 / 5 5 5 20 Picacho......................... 95 66 96 65 / 10 5 20 20 Elk............................. 92 62 92 61 / 10 5 30 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...46