717
FXUS65 KABQ 111722 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1122 AM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 157 AM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Moisture and daytime heating across western and northern New
Mexico today will lead to scattered storms in the afternoon and
early evening. Temperatures will also continue to warm up today
with many locations in central valleys and the eastern plains
reaching the 90`s and low 100`s by late afternoon. A fairly
typical early August monsoon pattern will persist into Monday,
Tuesday and Wednesday with storms generally continuing to be
concentrated over the western and central high terrain areas of
New Mexico while the eastern plains remain mostly dry and hotter
than normal. The arrival of some drier air on Thursday and Friday
could limit the development of showers and storms, but rain
chances will not fully disappear from the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 157 AM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Today is expected to be a near-repeat of Saturday but with a slight
increase in storm coverage. A 595dm H5 high centered over south-
central NM will drift west while another subtle shortwave trough
moves southeast across northeast NM. Small footprints of heavy
rainfall are likely again today the slow and erratic storm motions.
A strong storm or two is still possible over northeast NM where
better lift and shear is present beneath the upper level shortwave.
Max temps are expected to trend a degree or two warmer with Roswell
edging closer to 105F.

More notable changes to the monsoon pattern will begin tonight as a
complex interaction of atmospheric features evolves across the
southwest CONUS. A warm-core low currently over southern Sonora will
continue moving northwest toward southwest AZ today ahead of an
upper trough approaching the west coast. Meanwhile, a broad upper
trough over the Great Plains will be moving east into the MS River
Valley. These features will split the monsoon high with one lobe
reorganizing farther east into TX while deep-layer south to north
flow develops over western NM Monday. This pattern will allow very
rich moisture across northwest MX to surge northward into AZ and
western NM with a significant uptick in storm coverage possible for
areas along and west of the Cont Divide. There is some uncertainty
with how far east the heavier rainfall chances will occur so any
changes to PoPs may be most notable along the central mt chain.
Flash Flood Watches may be warranted once again for HPCC and the
Sacramento Complex as early as Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 157 AM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024

With Monday`s increased storm coverage, a few more cells may have
potential to redevelop along outflows and the leading edges of
mesoscale cold pools, perhaps as far east as the east central to
northeastern plains Monday evening.

The prognosis for Tuesday is for the upper high to be situated
near the Ark-La-Tx region. Earlier model runs were indicating a
potential easterly wave that would be moving into MX, but last
evening`s runs have dampened and lost this feature. This should
create a less interrupted subtropical tap of moisture for Tuesday,
albeit a short-lived one. The blended POP guidance still seemed
far too high and after coordination with EPZ, these values were
lowered significantly while still retaining likely (60 percent)
values over the western high terrain zones, and over portions of
the northern mountain zones. Widespread PWATs of 0.9 to 1.0 inch
would keep the threat for locally heavy rain going. Perhaps a few
training cells would also be possible over the same spots in
western zones as storms drift north northeastward. Hot
temperatures would persist in the central valleys and eastern
plains Tuesday.

There would be a hint of some west/southwesterlies aloft moving
over the Four Corners on Tuesday, turning westerly along the NM-
CO border on Wednesday as a shortwave trough crosses. Meanwhile
the high to our east would stay put while an eastern Pacific high
also nudges inland toward the lower CO river basin on Wednesday.
This would keep light, disrupted flow over NM with some drier air
pushing into north central NM while most remaining areas retain
similar moisture values to that of Tuesday. Blended POP guidance
lowers a bit, and it`s difficult to argue against this with the
aforementioned disruption to the southerly tap of subtropical
moisture. Storms would once again be hardest to come by in the
east central to southeastern plains zones Wednesday where
temperatures will also be hottest.

The western high builds more squarely over AZ on Thursday with a
notable slug of dry air wrapping into many of our western and
central zones. This may not fully shut down convection in these
zones Thursday, but it will minimalize it and reduce rainfall
efficiency with higher based storms. The high over AZ then shifts
over NM on Friday with more dry air cycling clockwise over the
state with a meager crop of showers and thunderstorms expected.
Other than the Four Corners area, most zones will run 3 to 7
degrees above average for daytime high temperatures Friday.

Into next weekend, we will be watching how far east the high moves
in response to a very unseasonably deep low that will be moving
toward the Pacific Northwest states. If nudged far enough east (as
the ECMWF is advertising), this would reintroduce the southerly
subtropical tap of moisture, at least for eastern AZ and western
NM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 AM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Another round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
will develop this afternoon across western and northern NM. Probs
for TSRA at each TAF site is relative low (20-30%), thus TAFs are
predominately covered with VCTS. Some gusty winds and brief heavy
rain can be expected. Most activity should wane after sunset with
the exception of the Four Corners region where activity may linger
through 12/12Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 157 AM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024

There are no critical fire weather conditions over the next 7 days.
A more traditional monsoon pattern is expected thru mid week as high
pressure gradually moves east of NM. Storm motion will become more
south to north or southwest to northeast. The threat for locally
heavy rainfall will increase each day with the primary focus over
the western half of NM. Temps will be near to above normal for mid
August with the hottest and driest weather focused over east-central
and southeast NM. Forecast confidence decreases with the extended
weather pattern by Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  88  64  86  64 /  20  30  30  30
Dulce...........................  83  51  84  53 /  50  40  50  40
Cuba............................  85  57  85  57 /  30  30  50  50
Gallup..........................  87  57  86  57 /  50  30  50  30
El Morro........................  83  56  82  55 /  60  40  70  50
Grants..........................  87  60  86  60 /  50  40  70  50
Quemado.........................  86  57  84  56 /  50  40  70  50
Magdalena.......................  88  64  87  62 /  40  20  50  40
Datil...........................  85  57  84  55 /  40  30  70  40
Reserve.........................  91  57  88  56 /  50  40  80  40
Glenwood........................  95  66  94  64 /  40  30  70  30
Chama...........................  77  50  77  51 /  60  30  70  40
Los Alamos......................  84  62  84  62 /  40  20  60  40
Pecos...........................  85  59  86  56 /  30  20  60  50
Cerro/Questa....................  79  52  80  53 /  60  30  70  40
Red River.......................  70  47  71  45 /  60  20  80  40
Angel Fire......................  75  44  76  45 /  50  20  60  30
Taos............................  84  54  84  54 /  40  20  50  30
Mora............................  82  53  81  52 /  40  20  60  40
Espanola........................  90  62  90  61 /  30  20  40  40
Santa Fe........................  85  62  86  62 /  30  20  50  50
Santa Fe Airport................  89  61  90  60 /  30  20  40  40
Albuquerque Foothills...........  92  69  93  66 /  40  20  40  50
Albuquerque Heights.............  94  69  94  68 /  40  30  40  40
Albuquerque Valley..............  96  68  96  62 /  40  30  30  40
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  95  68  95  66 /  30  30  30  40
Belen...........................  96  67  96  65 /  30  20  30  40
Bernalillo......................  95  67  95  64 /  30  30  40  40
Bosque Farms....................  96  65  95  61 /  30  30  30  40
Corrales........................  96  67  95  64 /  30  30  30  40
Los Lunas.......................  96  66  95  62 /  30  30  30  40
Placitas........................  92  66  92  64 /  40  30  40  40
Rio Rancho......................  94  68  94  66 /  30  30  30  40
Socorro.........................  98  70  98  68 /  20  10  20  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  86  63  86  60 /  40  20  50  40
Tijeras.........................  91  63  91  62 /  40  20  50  50
Edgewood........................  90  60  90  60 /  30  10  50  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  91  57  90  55 /  20  10  40  40
Clines Corners..................  86  59  86  57 /  20  10  40  40
Mountainair.....................  89  61  89  59 /  30  10  40  40
Gran Quivira....................  89  61  89  59 /  20  10  40  40
Carrizozo.......................  93  68  93  66 /  10   5  30  40
Ruidoso.........................  85  62  85  56 /  20   5  30  30
Capulin.........................  84  56  82  57 /  30  30  60  30
Raton...........................  89  55  87  56 /  30  30  50  30
Springer........................  90  57  88  57 /  30  20  50  30
Las Vegas.......................  87  56  86  55 /  30  20  50  40
Clayton.........................  92  62  86  64 /  20  30  30  30
Roy.............................  90  61  88  62 /  30  20  30  30
Conchas.........................  98  66  97  66 /  20  20  20  30
Santa Rosa......................  94  65  94  65 /  20  20  20  30
Tucumcari.......................  98  65  97  66 /  20  20  20  30
Clovis..........................  99  70  99  68 /  10  20  20  20
Portales........................  99  70  99  67 /  10  10  10  20
Fort Sumner.....................  98  69  98  68 /  20  20  20  30
Roswell......................... 104  73 104  72 /   5   5   5  20
Picacho.........................  95  66  96  65 /  10   5  20  20
Elk.............................  92  62  92  61 /  10   5  30  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...46