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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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295 FXUS65 KABQ 112108 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 308 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 308 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024 An uptick in monsoon shower and storm coverage is expected across western and northern areas Monday and Tuesday as the monsoon high moves east over the south central U.S. A few storms across northeast NM Monday afternoon and evening could become strong to severe. Shower and storm coverage favors central and eastern areas Wednesday as a disturbance moves across the region. Much lower shower and storm coverage Thursday and Friday as drier air moves in behind the system and the monsoon high builds back overhead. Temperatures will be seasonably hot across the state. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 308 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Latest analysis depicts a 596dam high pressure centroid at 500hPa directly over Ruidoso, NM, with a decent slug of mid-level dry air over a significant portion of the CWFA. Main focus for storms this afternoon and early evening will be across the wrn/nrn high terrain. A weak shortwave is progressing eastward along the nrn periphery of the aforementioned upr high. Current mesoanalysis depicts about 500- 750 J/kg of MLCAPE in the northeast plains with the SREF suggesting little change through the remainder of the daylight period. Given greatest bulk shear remains well east over OK and only modest mid- level lapse rates, anticipate mainly clusters of cells of the pulsy nature capable of gusty winds and small hail. Most convection will dwindle after sunset with the exception of the northwest zones with light showers persisting beyond midnight. No significant changes to overnight lows, generally within 2-5F of this morning. The upper high slides eastward for Monday, allowing return flow to establish itself on its wrn periphery. PWATs are progged to nudge a tad higher in the wrn/srn zones. With weaker subsidence, this will support a greater bumper crop of storms over these areas. This may also support a higher risk for flash flooding on the Sacramento Mtn burn scars. Slightly stronger, though still fairly weak, southeast low-level flow will be favored in northeast NM for the afternoon. Another upr level disturbance embedded in the flow will track over this same region. MLCAPE, mid-level lapse rates and bulk shear will be marginally greater to support stronger/more persistent updrafts. As a result, large hail and gusty downburst winds will be the main threats. SPC provides a Marginal Risk over this area and opted to include this language in the forecast grids. That said, widespread severe weather is not anticipated at this time. Activity across the northeast plains will persist into the early and mid-evening hours before propagating eastward/dissipating. Showers/embedded isolated storms will persist over the northwest zones through the overnight. DPorter && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 308 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024 On Tuesday, shortwaves embedded in the southwest flow across the intermountain West between an upper level trough over the Pacific NW and the upper high over the south central U.S. look to result in an enhancement of shower and storm coverage along and west of the central mountain chain. PWATs will be near to slightly above normal for mid August and storm motion will be southwest to northeast at around 5 to 15 mph. Most of the storms look to remain west of the HPCC and Ruidoso burn scars, but just like any day during monsoon season, only one storm can cause major problems. On Wednesday, ensemble clusters agree on the upper level trough over the Pacific NW moves east through the Rockies and desert southwest with the higher monsoon moisture moving along with it. Storm coverage will favor central NM during the afternoon hours shifting to eastern NM come the evening hours. A higher coverage of showers and storms are expected for the HPCC and Ruidoso burn scar compared to Tuesday, but storm motion will be a little quicker from west to east at around 10 to 20 mph along the base of the upper level trough helping to reduce residence time of heavier precip over the burn scars. Temperatures of Tuesday and Wednesday will be slightly below average across northwest NM, and slightly above normal across central and eastern NM. Deterministic and ensemble guidance are in much better agreement for late this week compared to this time yesterday. Drier northwest flow moves into the state Thursday behind Wednesday`s shortwave trough and ahead of a developing upper high over southern CA and AZ. PWATs drop to around half an inch across western and central NM and around 0.75 inches across eastern NM. This along with the subsidence behind the shortwave trough will result an much lower coverage of showers and storms across the state, with low chances across the mountain ranges. The upper high moves east over New Mexico Friday strengthening to 596 dam. PWATs increase slightly to 0.75 inches areawide as some mid level moisture moves back north. However, with the subsidence overhead, shower and storm coverage remains low with higher terrain areas being favored. The upper high then looks to shift slightly east into eastern NM and West Texas Saturday in response to an upper low moving into the Pacific NW. This will shift the monsoon plume and higher mid level moisture over Arizona Friday into far western NM Saturday increasing PWATs to around 0.9 inches to 1 inch and thus shower and storm chances. Temperatures during this period will be slightly above average for most areas cooling across western NM to near average come the weekend due to the higher moisture inching in from the west. Anand && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1120 AM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Another round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon across western and northern NM. Probs for TSRA at each TAF site is relative low (20-30%), thus TAFs are predominately covered with VCTS. Some gusty winds and brief heavy rain can be expected. Most activity should wane after sunset with the exception of the Four Corners region where activity may linger through 12/12Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 308 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024 No critical fire weather conditions are anticipated over the next several days. Precipitation chances are expected to increase Monday and Tuesday in western and central NM as a more traditional monsoon setup with high pressure to the east of New Mexico will develop. As a result, the risk for locally heavy rain capable of flash flooding will be elevated, particularly on wildfire burn scars. This pattern appears short-lived as drier air is advected into northwest NM for Wednesday, then spreading over the entire forecast area on Thursday. This will significantly reduce storm coverage and allow for hotter daytime highs. Based on the latest guidance, this drier setup could persist into next weekend. DPorter && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 62 88 63 86 / 30 20 30 30 Dulce........................... 48 86 50 84 / 30 30 30 50 Cuba............................ 56 85 56 84 / 20 40 40 50 Gallup.......................... 56 88 56 84 / 30 40 40 50 El Morro........................ 56 83 56 81 / 40 60 50 70 Grants.......................... 59 88 58 84 / 20 60 40 70 Quemado......................... 57 85 56 83 / 50 60 50 80 Magdalena....................... 63 87 62 86 / 20 40 30 50 Datil........................... 57 85 56 83 / 40 60 40 70 Reserve......................... 56 90 56 88 / 30 70 40 70 Glenwood........................ 66 95 66 93 / 30 60 40 60 Chama........................... 48 80 49 78 / 40 50 40 50 Los Alamos...................... 61 83 61 84 / 20 50 30 50 Pecos........................... 59 85 58 85 / 20 50 40 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 50 81 52 81 / 30 60 40 50 Red River....................... 46 72 47 72 / 40 70 40 50 Angel Fire...................... 43 76 45 76 / 30 70 40 50 Taos............................ 52 85 53 85 / 20 40 30 30 Mora............................ 52 82 51 82 / 20 60 40 50 Espanola........................ 59 91 60 92 / 20 30 30 30 Santa Fe........................ 61 86 62 86 / 20 40 30 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 60 89 61 89 / 10 30 30 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 68 92 68 93 / 20 30 30 40 Albuquerque Heights............. 68 95 66 94 / 20 10 20 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 67 97 66 96 / 20 5 20 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 68 94 67 94 / 20 10 30 20 Belen........................... 65 96 64 96 / 20 10 20 20 Bernalillo...................... 66 96 66 96 / 20 10 30 20 Bosque Farms.................... 64 95 63 95 / 20 10 20 20 Corrales........................ 68 97 66 96 / 20 10 30 20 Los Lunas....................... 66 96 65 95 / 20 10 20 20 Placitas........................ 65 91 65 92 / 20 20 30 30 Rio Rancho...................... 67 95 66 95 / 20 10 30 20 Socorro......................... 68 99 67 98 / 10 20 20 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 61 86 59 86 / 20 30 30 30 Tijeras......................... 63 88 61 89 / 20 30 30 30 Edgewood........................ 58 89 57 88 / 10 20 30 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 55 90 55 90 / 10 20 30 30 Clines Corners.................. 57 86 57 86 / 5 30 30 20 Mountainair..................... 59 89 58 88 / 10 20 30 20 Gran Quivira.................... 60 89 58 88 / 10 30 30 20 Carrizozo....................... 66 93 65 92 / 10 20 40 30 Ruidoso......................... 61 85 58 84 / 20 30 30 40 Capulin......................... 55 82 56 85 / 40 70 40 20 Raton........................... 54 87 55 89 / 40 60 30 30 Springer........................ 55 89 56 90 / 30 60 30 30 Las Vegas....................... 55 86 56 86 / 20 50 40 30 Clayton......................... 62 87 63 92 / 30 30 40 5 Roy............................. 59 88 61 89 / 30 50 40 10 Conchas......................... 65 97 66 98 / 20 20 30 5 Santa Rosa...................... 64 93 64 94 / 20 20 30 5 Tucumcari....................... 66 97 66 99 / 20 10 20 0 Clovis.......................... 70 99 68 97 / 20 10 10 0 Portales........................ 70 100 68 98 / 10 0 10 0 Fort Sumner..................... 68 99 67 98 / 20 5 20 0 Roswell......................... 73 103 72 101 / 10 0 5 0 Picacho......................... 66 96 63 94 / 20 10 10 20 Elk............................. 62 94 59 91 / 20 20 10 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...46 LONG TERM....71 AVIATION...46