087
FXUS65 KABQ 022031
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
231 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 115 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

A warming and drying trend is in play through Independence Day,
which will be the hottest and least active day of the next seven.
Thunderstorms are still anticipated through Wednesday, with burn
scar flooding possible, but will be more limited in coverage. A
backdoor front will recharge moisture from the central mountain
chain eastward late Thursday into Friday, setting the stage for an
uptick in storm coverage going into the weekend with a renewed
threat for burn scar flooding. Western NM will remain mostly dry
and relatively hot through the weekend under the influence of high
pressure centered over the Desert Southwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 115 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

An anomalously high PWAT atmosphere continues across much of the
area, but a drying trend is underway as the westerlies penetrate
further south across the state. The KABQ upper air sounding showed
a PWAT of 1.13" this morning, which is still above normal but
below our daily record value. Plenty of moisture exists for a
robust round of storms this afternoon/evening, which is already
underway with a recent nickel size hail report coming from Los
Alamos. A severe storm or two are possible due to the increased
shear associated with the westerlies across northern NM, but the
best shot at seeing severe storms this afternoon/evening will be
across far northeast NM where a weak boundary will provide some
added forcing. Otherwise, the main thunderstorm related threat
this afternoon/evening will be locally heavy rainfall and the
potential for burn scar flooding. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect
through this evening for the South Central Mountains, mainly given
the sensitive situation in/near the Sacramento Complex where the
combination of higher PWATs and slower storm motion reside. A
similar day Wednesday, but with a drier airmass penetrating
further west into northern and western NM leading to a downtick in
coverage there. The combination of slow storm motion and higher
PWATs will linger near the Sacramento Complex Wednesday, so
another Flash Flood Watch is likely. A weak backdoor front will
provide some surface convergence and focus for thunderstorm
initiation Wednesday afternoon across the east central plains
between Tucumcari and Clovis, where the right combination of
instability and shear will be present at least a limited threat
for severe storms. Storms on Wednesday are modeled to follow a
more normal diurnal downtrend compared to what we`ve been seeing
the past many days in part due to lower PWATs and greater reliance
on daytime heating.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 115 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

An upper high over the eastern Pacific will move inland across CA
and into the Great Basin/Desert SW while expanding and
strengthening from Thursday through the weekend. Dry northwest
flow aloft associated with an expanding ridge axis from the west
will overtake the area Thursday, leading to a dramatic downtrend
in PWATs, a near void of convection and what will likely be the
hottest day of the forecast cycle for most locales. Isolated
storms are possible along our southern border Thursday afternoon
where sufficient moisture will linger, with low chances for
impacts to the Sacramento Complex. A backdoor front will rush in
late Thursday into Thursday night and recharge moisture across
eastern and central NM. The front will create a gusty east
canyon/gap wind into the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys
Thursday night. With renewed moisture, expect an uptick in
thunderstorm coverage from the central mountain chain eastward
from late Friday through the weekend with the potential for burn
scar flooding. Given low level south or southeast flow with
northwest flow aloft, sufficient shear will exist across eastern
NM from Friday through the weekend for a threat for severe
thunderstorms. Another, stronger backdoor front will arrive Sunday
night and bring moisture west to the Continental Divide by
Monday, setting the stage for an active early week period with
plenty of moisture and northerly flow aloft. This setup would be
favorable for lighting-up the northern mountains and central
mountain chain, with storms moving south or southeast into valleys
and adjacent highlands during the late afternoon and evening
hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1040 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, although MVFR
conditions are likely near sct/num storms this afternoon/evening.
Highest chances of impacts among our TAF sites are at KAEG, KLVS
and KROW. Low probabilities of thunderstorm impacts at KFMN and
KTCC. Winds will generally be light outside of thunderstorm
outflow, which could gust as high as 40-50kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 115 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through at least
the next seven days with rounds of wetting storms and good to
excellent humidity recovery most areas. A gradual downtrend in
coverage of wetting storms is forecast through Thursday with a
drying and warming trend in play. A backdoor front will recharge
moisture from the central mountain chain eastward late Thursday
into Friday, setting the stage for an uptick in wetting storms
going through the weekend. Another, stronger backdoor front will
race southwest across the area Sunday night, brining increased
moisture to at least the Continental Divide and setting the stage
for an uptick in wetting storms further west across central NM
early next week. Burn scar flooding is possible most days, but
will be very low on Independence Day due to drying of the
atmosphere.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  61  93  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  51  87  46  88 /   5   5   0   0
Cuba............................  56  87  54  87 /  20   5   0   0
Gallup..........................  55  92  50  92 /  20   5   0   0
El Morro........................  56  87  54  89 /  30   5   0   0
Grants..........................  57  90  50  91 /  30  10   0   0
Quemado.........................  58  88  55  90 /  40  10  10   5
Magdalena.......................  61  86  61  90 /  50  30  10   0
Datil...........................  57  85  57  88 /  40  20   5   5
Reserve.........................  57  92  53  94 /  40  30  10  10
Glenwood........................  67  95  66 100 /  50  40  20  20
Chama...........................  50  81  46  83 /  10  10   0   0
Los Alamos......................  59  86  62  88 /  30  20   0   0
Pecos...........................  57  85  56  88 /  20  30   5   5
Cerro/Questa....................  49  81  45  84 /  10  20   0   5
Red River.......................  48  73  45  76 /  20  20   5  10
Angel Fire......................  49  78  38  80 /  20  30   5   5
Taos............................  53  86  48  89 /  10  20   0   0
Mora............................  53  82  50  86 /  20  30   5   5
Espanola........................  60  92  58  94 /  20  10   0   0
Santa Fe........................  59  87  60  89 /  30  20   5   0
Santa Fe Airport................  59  90  58  92 /  20  10   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  64  91  66  94 /  40  20   5   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  65  93  66  96 /  40  10   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  64  94  65  98 /  40  10   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  65  94  65  96 /  30  10   0   0
Belen...........................  63  95  61  98 /  50  10   0   0
Bernalillo......................  64  95  64  97 /  20  10   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  62  94  61  97 /  50  10   0   0
Corrales........................  64  95  63  97 /  20  10   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  62  95  60  98 /  50  10   0   0
Placitas........................  63  91  64  94 /  20  20   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  65  94  65  96 /  20  10   0   0
Socorro.........................  66  94  67  99 /  40  20  10   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  59  86  61  88 /  30  20   0   0
Tijeras.........................  61  88  62  92 /  40  20   5   0
Edgewood........................  58  88  59  92 /  30  20   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  57  89  54  93 /  30  20   5   0
Clines Corners..................  57  84  56  89 /  30  20   5   0
Mountainair.....................  59  86  60  91 /  50  30   5   0
Gran Quivira....................  60  86  59  91 /  50  30  10   5
Carrizozo.......................  65  88  67  94 /  50  40  20  10
Ruidoso.........................  59  80  61  86 /  50  60  20  30
Capulin.........................  58  83  55  81 /  20  50  10   5
Raton...........................  57  87  54  88 /  20  30   5   5
Springer........................  62  89  54  91 /  20  30   5   5
Las Vegas.......................  56  84  54  87 /  20  30  10   5
Clayton.........................  66  86  62  87 /  40  30  20   0
Roy.............................  63  85  59  89 /  20  30  20   5
Conchas.........................  68  93  64  97 /  30  30  20   0
Santa Rosa......................  66  90  63  96 /  30  30  10   0
Tucumcari.......................  69  93  66  98 /  30  20  20   0
Clovis..........................  71  93  68  97 /  30  40  30  10
Portales........................  70  94  70  98 /  30  40  20  10
Fort Sumner.....................  67  93  68 100 /  30  30  20   0
Roswell.........................  72  99  74 104 /  30  30  30  10
Picacho.........................  66  90  66  96 /  40  50  20  20
Elk.............................  62  87  63  92 /  50  70  30  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11