208
FXUS65 KABQ 040827
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
227 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 215 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Warmer and drier today, with the exception of locales in the
northeastern and east central plains where a backdoor front will
cool highs a few degrees. The aforementioned front will give rise
to another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms favoring
the central mountains. A slight downtick in storms is expected
Saturday. Flash flooding will be possible both days on recent burn
scars. Temperatures will rise a few to several degrees areawide
Sunday amongst much drier air. A stronger backdoor front will
descend the eastern plains and surge westward, bringing the
potential for strong canyon winds Sunday night through Monday
morning to the Albuquerque metro.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 215 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Happy Independence Day! Fortunately, this 4th of July looks to be
rather quiet weather-wise, especially as compared to the last few
weeks. With an upper high parked over the CA coast, northwest flow
over NM will usher in much drier air from the Rio Grande Valley
westward today. Dewpoints will plummet into the teens and 20s
allowing for several hours of single digit relative humidities. This
is quite the change from the last week or so. As a result, shower
and thunderstorm activity will be shut down altogether in these
areas. Meanwhile, a convectively aided backdoor front will push into
northeast NM this morning and gradually sag southward across the
remainder of the plains through the afternoon. The amount of dry air
aloft should generally limit shower and thunderstorm activity along
and east of the Central Mountain Chain, but a few storms remain
possible thanks to moist upslope flow. Best chances for storms look
to be across southeast NM, but couldn`t rule out a stray shower or
storm near the burn scars in the South Central Mtns. Confidence is
too low to issue a Flood Watch though.

Now, shortly after midnight, mother nature may have some fireworks
of her own across eastern NM. Winds behind the aforementioned front
will veer around to the east, and the front should push through the
gaps of the Central Mountain Chain, resulting in breezy to locally
windy conditions at both ABQ and SAF. It also looks like there will
be a moisture gradient that sets up near a line from KLVS to KTCC
which is coincident with weak 850-700mb speed convergence and
elevated instability. Thus, it is looking increasingly likely that
overnight showers and thunderstorms will impact northeast and east
central NM. Storms may develop as far west as the Hermits Peak Calf
Canyon burn scar, but better chances will be to the east.
Nonetheless, as we know, it only takes one storm to cause problems.
Will hold off for now on a Flood Watch for tonight for HPCC, but the
day shift will continue to monitor closely. Any precipitation that
develops should wane by the noon hour on Friday.

The backdoor front, precipitation and persistent cloud cover will
keep temperatures much cooler across eastern NM on Friday, with high
temps in the 70s and low 80s common. As such, it may be a late start
for thunderstorm activity in the afternoon, but it is expected near
and east of the Central Mountain Chain. At minimum, a Flood Watch
will be needed for the South Central Mtn burn scars on Friday
afternoon and early evening, but can`t rule out HPCC as well. A
strong or severe storm will also be possible with decent instability
and around 30kt of 0-6km bulk shear.  The amount of convection will
depend on how much of the cloud cover erodes during the daytime
hours across the plains, and hence how much instability can develop
with daytime heating. The NAM keeps it more stable across the plains
(but still a few storms develop along the Central Mtn Chain), but
the GFS and ECMWF suggest more convection, especially through the
evening. Meanwhile, from the Rio Grande Valley westward, any
moisture that pushed through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain
with the front, should largely mix out during the afternoon.
Couldn`t rule out a few storms near the moisture gradient in the
afternoon, but the bulk of the activity should be along and perhaps
east of the Central Mtn Chain.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Strong dome of high pressure will center itself on the CA/NV border
Saturday, allowing a regime of dry northwesterly flow to take hold
across NM. Another round of afternoon thunderstorms is possible,
especially across portions of central NM. A storm or two along the
NM/TX border may become strong to severe given high CAPE values,
but lackluster shear will keep storms disorganized and more pulse
in nature. Much drier air enters the arena on Sunday, pushing all
locales west of the central mountains into the low double to
single digits for minimum RH. The dry northwesterly flow aloft
will bring breezy to locally windy conditions across the northwest
plateau. The downsloping component of winds elsewhere will allow
temperatures to soar, sparking the potential need for heat
highlights. Meanwhile, a stronger backdoor front will descend the
eastern plains, surging southward and westward throughout the day.
The front will squeeze through the canyon gaps Sunday night,
bringing a blustery east canyon wind to the central valleys.
Guidance`s magnitude of these winds is debatable, with the GFS
continuing to hint towards a sustained wind speed in excess of 40
kts. While that seems a little overcooked from a synoptic
perspective (no low to the west to draw it westward), an
impressive density gradient might be all the incentive the winds
need. Tds at KABQ Sunday night go from a lip-chapping 18F to 50F
in 12 hours, which is certainly something to watch as model
temporal resolution improves. Either way, wind highlights by way
of advisory or warning will likely be needed in future updates.
Much cooler temperatures areawide will follow in the wake of the
front on Monday, with locales seeing a reduction of around 5F to
15F compared to Sunday`s readings. After drier conditions on
Sunday, the front will recharge moisture and give rise to showers
and thunderstorms Monday afternoon, favoring the high terrain and
its adjacent lowlands. The upper high will continue its slow
saunter eastward, arriving to the NV/UT border on Tuesday and
setting up a regime of northerly flow aloft. Thunderstorm coverage
will spread westward and allow for motions to bring storms down
the central valley. The subtle rise in pressure heights from the
high`s position will bring daytime highs up a few degrees nearly
areawide but temperatures will still be below normal for early
July most areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Quiet conditions are expected overnight across northern and
central NM. Much drier air will filter into the area on
Independence Day, resulting few -SHRA/-TSRA. Storms that do
develop will generally be southeast of KROW. Rather, breezy
northwest winds with gusts near 25kt will be possible along and
west of the Rio Grande Valley. A backdoor cold front will also
push into northeast NM overnight into Thursday morning. Breezy
north wind will also be possible behind it. As it pushes southward
during the day Thursday, winds will veer around to the east behind
it but will remain breezy at times.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 215 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Drier and warmer conditions are expected for much of the area today.
Single digit relative humidity values are expected for most areas
from the Rio Grande Valley westward, with durations longer than 6
hours across the Northwest Plateau and lower elevations of the West
Central Mountains. A few breezes will also be noted this afternoon,
which will result in elevated to near-critical fire weather
conditions. Fortunately, some of these areas have received
substantial rainfall over the last week. Meanwhile, a backdoor
front will slide down the plains today and thru the gaps of the
Central Mtn Chain tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will be
possible along and east of the Central Mtn Chain tonight and again
Friday afternoon/evening. Yet another round in these areas is
expected on Saturday afternoon. Another surge of drier air within
northwest flow will arrive on Sunday, dropping precipitation
chances once again, and resulting in 7 to 10 hours of single digit
RH west of the Rio Grande Valley. Locally windy conditions may
also result in elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Yet
another backdoor front Sunday night combined with moisture from
the remnants of Beryl moving northward will increase humidity and
chances for precipitation early next week while the upper high
remains over CA and the Great Basin.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  93  54  92  54 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  88  44  86  44 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  88  51  87  51 /   0   0   5   5
Gallup..........................  93  49  91  49 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  88  53  86  52 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  91  49  89  49 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  90  53  87  53 /   0   0  10  10
Magdalena.......................  91  61  87  61 /   0   0  20  20
Datil...........................  89  56  86  56 /   0   0  10  10
Reserve.........................  94  54  93  53 /   0   0  20  10
Glenwood........................  98  66  97  66 /  10   5  20  20
Chama...........................  82  45  80  45 /   0   0  10   5
Los Alamos......................  87  60  80  58 /   0   5  20  10
Pecos...........................  89  55  78  54 /   0  20  40  20
Cerro/Questa....................  84  44  78  43 /   0  10  40  20
Red River.......................  75  43  70  43 /   5  20  40  30
Angel Fire......................  79  40  73  40 /   5  20  40  30
Taos............................  89  50  82  50 /   0   5  20  20
Mora............................  85  50  75  48 /  10  20  40  30
Espanola........................  94  58  87  58 /   0   5  10  10
Santa Fe........................  88  59  80  57 /   0  10  30  20
Santa Fe Airport................  92  60  84  57 /   0  10  20  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  94  64  88  63 /   0   5  20  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  96  64  89  63 /   0   0  10  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  98  64  91  62 /   0   0   5  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  97  64  90  63 /   0   0   5   5
Belen...........................  99  60  93  61 /   0   0   5  10
Bernalillo......................  97  64  90  62 /   0   0  10   5
Bosque Farms....................  98  60  91  59 /   0   0   5  10
Corrales........................  97  62  91  61 /   0   0   5   5
Los Lunas.......................  98  60  92  60 /   0   0   5  10
Placitas........................  93  63  87  61 /   0   0  10  10
Rio Rancho......................  96  64  90  62 /   0   0   5   5
Socorro......................... 100  67  95  67 /   0   0  10  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  89  58  82  57 /   0   0  20  10
Tijeras.........................  91  60  84  59 /   0   0  20  10
Edgewood........................  91  58  82  56 /   0   5  20  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  93  55  83  54 /   0  10  20  20
Clines Corners..................  89  54  76  53 /   5  20  30  20
Mountainair.....................  91  57  83  56 /   0   5  20  10
Gran Quivira....................  92  57  84  56 /   0   5  40  20
Carrizozo.......................  96  65  87  63 /  10  10  50  20
Ruidoso.........................  88  58  77  56 /  20  20  70  30
Capulin.........................  81  52  76  53 /  20  20  40  30
Raton...........................  86  54  79  54 /  20  30  30  30
Springer........................  90  55  79  54 /  20  20  30  30
Las Vegas.......................  86  53  74  53 /  10  30  30  30
Clayton.........................  83  57  79  57 /   0  30  20  30
Roy.............................  86  57  74  57 /  10  40  30  50
Conchas.........................  93  62  81  61 /   0  50  20  40
Santa Rosa......................  93  61  78  60 /   5  40  20  30
Tucumcari.......................  93  61  83  60 /   0  60  20  40
Clovis..........................  95  63  81  62 /  20  50  30  40
Portales........................  96  64  80  62 /  20  50  30  40
Fort Sumner.....................  97  65  80  63 /   0  40  20  40
Roswell......................... 103  71  88  70 /  10  30  40  30
Picacho.........................  96  65  82  62 /  10  20  50  30
Elk.............................  93  61  80  58 /  20  20  70  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...34