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763
FXUS61 KOKX 010012
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
812 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the region this afternoon and
evening. High pressure then builds in Monday and will remain
in control through Wednesday. A warm front lifts north of the
area on Wednesday Night followed by a cold front late in the
week which may remain nearby into the first half of next
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Some showers and thunderstorms remain along the cold front but
are much less coverage with more coverage south of Long Island.
With decreasing instability, reduced thunderstorm probabilities
to chance and have chance to likely POPs across the region,
getting more confined to the coastal areas for mid to late this
evening. The showers are expected to be mainly south of Long
Island overnight with a slight chance of thunderstorms also.
Mainly dry conditions are going to become re-established across
much of the region overnight.

Thunderstorms are expected to remain below severe thresholds but
some localized strong thunderstorms cannot be ruled out with
strong gusty winds and locally heavy rain this evening.

The cold front is expected to move through the NYC metro around
2z, and Central and Eastern LI towards 3-4z as the cold front
is expected to increase in forward speed.

A much drier air mass will ensue with the winds switching to
the NW and becoming more N towards daybreak. Dewpoints will fall
quickly through 60s from NW to SE across the area. By the pre-
dawn hours look for dewpoints to get into the middle and upper
50s with a more refreshing and comfortable feel into Monday
morning with gusts of 15 to 20 mph in places.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
During Monday expect a pleasant early summer day. Dewpoint
readings should remain primarily in the 50s with temperatures
a few degrees below normal with upper 70s to lower 80s for the
afternoon. With the strong synoptic flow out of the N there is
little chance for sea breeze development. Forecast soundings
indicate some scattered cloud development in the 5 to 7 kft
level with any daytime heating towards the late morning and
afternoon. Otherwise expect a partly to mostly sunny day with a
refreshing breeze out of the N.

The pressure gradient relaxes Monday night with high pressure
starting to settle just west of the area. With light winds and
likely just a few clouds around 5 kft expect some radiational
cooling across outlying areas. Temperatures should be able to
fall into the lower and middle 50s in the coolest spots, with
lower to middle 60s for the metro and along much of the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
No major changes were made to the Long Term and closely followed the
NBM.

High pressure will remain in control Tuesday and Wednesday before
shifting offshore Wednesday night as a warm front lifts to the
north. A cold front will follow, but will likely not move through
the area and may remain to our north into early next weekend. Will
have to watch the evolution of any middle level impulses as they
ride along the periphery of the ridge. These are difficult to
resolve at this time range, but they may be a focus for showers and
thunderstorms. Right now the consensus of the modeling indicates a
bit higher probability on Friday and potentially Saturday compared
to Thursday.

Temperatures remain seasonable on Wednesday. The deterministic NBM
has trended down a bit for the end of the week, but still should
reach above normal levels, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s
away from the coast. Similar readings are expected through Saturday.
Humidity levels will also be on the rise for the end of the week
into next Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A cold front passes through this evening with high pressure building
in behind it through Monday.

VFR, but possible brief MVFR in -shra before 02z. Winds shift NW-NNW
by 03z for most terminals. Gusts around 20kt tonight behind the
front, mainly for the city terminals. NNW-N winds increase Monday
morning to around 15kt with gusts near 25kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts tonight might be only occasional.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday night: VFR. S wind gusts 15-20 kt Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday early evening.

Thursday: MVFR or lower possible with any late day or nighttime
showers/tstms.

Friday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of showers and
tstms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
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There is forecast to be some 25 kt gusts on the ocean with some
parts of the ocean getting around 5 ft seas this evening. Small
craft advisory remains in effect for the ocean until midnight.
In addition, some thunderstorms could also bring brief SCA level
wind gusts. Otherwise sub-SCA conditions are expected through
tonight.

The winds quickly switch to the NW and N behind a cold frontal
passage for tonight. On Monday high pressure builds with slowly
subsiding seas with mainly sub small craft conditions, although
the winds will be gusting close to 20 kt throughout all waters.
The pressure gradient relaxes Monday night as north winds
lighten and ocean seas subside closer to 2 ft towards early
Tuesday morning.

Sub advisory conditions will remain through at least Wednesday night
for all waters as high pressure settles over the waters, then moves
offshore. Marginal small craft conditions become more likely late
Thursday as a southerly flow increases, with possible small craft
seas on the ocean into Friday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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Besides any localized hydrological impacts from any stronger storms
this evening, no hydrological impacts are expected through
Wednesday. A frontal boundary and pre-frontal trough are likely
to approach late Thursday into Friday, and possibly linger to
begin next weekend. It remains too early to determine the risk
of any hydrological impacts from this frontal system.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There will be a moderate rip current risk on Monday with a lingering
S to SE swell. A low rip current risk is anticipated for
Tuesday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JE
NEAR TERM...JE/JM
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JE/JM
HYDROLOGY...JE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...