Extended Streamflow Prediction
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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945 FGUS63 KKRF 231439 ESPYEL LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO 1137 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2024 ******************************************************** ********* THESE NUMBERS ARE PRODUCED WITH HEFS ********* ******************************************************** IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT ESP (CS), HEFS, AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. HEFS VALUES INDICATE THE HEFS PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. CS VALUES INDICATE THE ESP PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS OR HEFS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS OR HEFS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 07/27/2024 - 10/25/2024 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR | HEFS CS HS |HEFS CS HS |HEFS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :YELLOWSTONE R AT YELLOWSTONE LK WY BLO YLOW4 9.0 10.0 11.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :LAMAR R AT TOWER FALLS WY 1NE TFLW4 15.0 16.0 17.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :YELLOWSTONE R AT CORWIN SPRINGS MT CORM8 11.0 12.0 13.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :YELLOWSTONE R AT LIVINGSTON MT 5S LIVM8 10.0 10.5 11.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :SHIELDS R AT LIVINGSTON MT 7NE SLDM8 5.5 0.0 0.0 | <5 <5 <5 | NA NA NA | NA NA NA :BOULDER R AT BIG TIMBER MT 1E BTMM8 8.0 0.0 0.0 | <5 <5 <5 | NA NA NA | NA NA NA :STILLWATER R AT ABSAROKEE MT 1NE SRAM8 7.5 8.0 9.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :CLKS FK YLLWSTN AT BELFRY MT 10SW BFYM8 9.0 10.0 11.5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :YELLOWSTONE R AT EDGAR MT EDGM8 9.0 10.0 11.5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :YELLOWSTONE R AT BILLINGS MT 1NE BILM8 13.5 14.5 15.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :LTL BIGHORN R AT HARDIN MT 3E HRDM8 8.0 10.0 11.8 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :YELLOWSTONE R AT FORSYTH MT FRYM8 14.0 0.0 0.0 | <5 <5 <5 | NA NA NA | NA NA NA :GOOSE CR AT SHERIDAN WY SHBW4 7.5 8.5 9.5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :TONGUE R AT BIRNEY MT BNYM8 7.0 0.0 0.0 | <5 <5 <5 | NA NA NA | NA NA NA :TONGUE R AT MILES CITY MT 2S MICM8 10.0 13.0 15.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :YELLOWSTONE R AT MILES CITY MT 1NW MILM8 14.0 0.0 0.0 | <5 <5 <5 | NA NA NA | NA NA NA :POWDER R AT SUSSEX WY SXXW4 11.0 12.0 13.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :YELLOWSTONE R AT GLENDIVE MT 1E GLNM8 53.5 60.0 65.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :YELLOWSTONE R AT SIDNEY MT 2S SIDM8 19.0 20.0 21.7 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 LEGEND HEFS = HYDROLOGIC ENSEMBLE FORECAST SERVICE SIMULATION (CURRENT) CS = CONDITIONAL ESP SIMULATION (CURRENT) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 2--HEFS EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 0727 Z DH12 /DC2407230437/DVD90/HGVFPXT/HGVFPX9/HGVFPXH .B1 /HGVFPX5/HGVFPXG/HGVFPX1/HGVFPXF : CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 07/27/2024 - 10/25/2024 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :YELLOWSTONE R YLOW4 5.1/ 5.1/ 5.1/ 5.1/ 5.1/ 5.1/ 5.1/ :LAMAR R TFLW4 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 2.1/ 2.0/ 2.4/ 3.2/ :YELLOWSTONE R CORM8 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.7/ LIVM8 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.7/ 3.3/ :SHIELDS R SLDM8 0.9/ 0.9/ 1.0/ 2.0/ 1.9/ 2.5/ 3.0/ :BOULDER R BTMM8 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.1/ 3.6/ :STILLWATER R SRAM8 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.7/ 3.1/ 2.8/ 3.5/ 4.2/ :CLKS FK YLLWSTN BFYM8 1.5/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 2.9/ 2.7/ 3.3/ 4.3/ :YELLOWSTONE R EDGM8 2.3/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 4.1/ 4.0/ 4.4/ 5.6/ BILM8 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.4/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.1/ 5.0/ :LTL BIGHORN R HRDM8 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 3.0/ :YELLOWSTONE R FRYM8 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.7/ 2.6/ 2.8/ 3.3/ :GOOSE CR SHBW4 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3/ :TONGUE R BNYM8 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ MICM8 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.6/ 3.9/ :YELLOWSTONE R MILM8 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.2/ 4.7/ :POWDER R SXXW4 2.4/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 3.4/ 3.1/ 4.3/ 4.9/ :YELLOWSTONE R GLNM8 43.2/ 43.2/ 43.2/ 43.5/ 43.5/ 43.6/ 44.0/ SIDM8 3.3/ 3.4/ 3.4/ 4.0/ 3.9/ 4.1/ 4.7/ .END IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 3--HEFS NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 0727 Z DH12 /DC2407230437/DVD90/HGVFPNT/HGVFPN9/HGVFPNH .B1 /HGVFPN5/HGVFPNG/HGVFPN1/HGVFPNF : CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 07/27/2024 - 10/25/2024 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :YELLOWSTONE R YLOW4 3.6/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.4/ :LAMAR R TFLW4 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3/ :YELLOWSTONE R CORM8 2.0/ 1.8/ 1.7/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.6/ LIVM8 0.8/ 0.8/ 0.7/ 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.6/ :SHIELDS R SLDM8 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2/ :BOULDER R BTMM8 0.0/ 0.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ :STILLWATER R SRAM8 1.4/ 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.1/ 1.2/ 1.1/ 1.1/ :CLKS FK YLLWSTN BFYM8 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.1/ 1.2/ 1.1/ 1.1/ :YELLOWSTONE R EDGM8 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.7/ BILM8 3.0/ 3.0/ 2.9/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.7/ :LTL BIGHORN R HRDM8 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ :YELLOWSTONE R FRYM8 0.0/ 0.0/ 2.1/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ :GOOSE CR SHBW4 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ :TONGUE R BNYM8 0.0/ 0.0/ 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3/ MICM8 1.3/ 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/ :YELLOWSTONE R MILM8 0.0/ 0.0/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ :POWDER R SXXW4 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ :YELLOWSTONE R GLNM8 42.9/ 42.9/ 42.8/ 42.7/ 42.7/ 42.7/ 42.6/ SIDM8 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.3/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.0/ 2.0/ .END $$