720
FXUS65 KVEF 152039
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
138 PM PDT Thu Aug 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions and afternoon breezes will continue
through Friday, along with near normal temperatures. Mohave,
Lincoln, and Clark counties will see monsoonal moisture and chances
for afternoon showers and thunderstorms return over the weekend.
Farther west, continued dry and breezy conditions will lead to
elevated fire risk over the weekend, with moisture possibly
returning next week.
&&

.UPDATE...For the 18Z TAF.
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Breezy south-southwest winds are
expected this afternoon. Wind will be  15KT to 20KT are expected
with only a 10% chance for gusts over 20KT this afternoon. Gusts
will end around sunset and winds will drop below 8KT after 04Z.
Light diurnal winds will persist overnight through Friday morning
before breezy south winds return Friday late morning and continue
through the afternoon. Low chance for southeast preceding the south-
southwest winds between 17Z through 20Z, however winds speeds will
remain around 8KT and the direction would favor 160 or 170 degrees.
Wind gusts Friday will be slightly stronger than today with a 30%
chance for gusts over 20KT Friday afternoon. Mostly clear skies will
prevail through the TAF period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Breezy south to southwest winds are expected across
southern Nevada into western Arizona this afternoon with winds
gusting to 15-20KT. Further west, winds follow typical wind trends
and remain at 10KT or less. Diurnal wind patterns will set up for
tonight through Friday morning before breezy south to southwest
winds develop across the region late Friday morning and afternoon.
No significant clouds or weather is expected through the TAF period.
-Nickerson-
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...143 AM PDT Thu Aug 15 2024.
.SHORT TERM...through Sunday night. Early morning satellite loop
showed clear skies areawide. Surface obs showed temperatures and
dewpoints both a few degrees lower than 24 hours ago. The break from
monsoonal moisture will continue through today, then moisture will
start to seep back into the southeast zones Friday as the mid level
flow turns more southerly. This will lead to thunderstorm chances
returning to Mohave, Clark, and Lincoln counties both Saturday and
Sunday. Farther west, where the dry air remains in place and south
to southwest winds will gust to around 30 mph in the afternoons, the
main concern will be wildfire risk. As noted by previous shifts,
these conditions will be flirting with Red Flag Warning criteria. A
coordination call is planned for later this morning, so will defer
any watch or warning decision to the day crew. Through Sunday,
expect no meaningful day to day change in temperatures, except in
areas where thunderstorms develop early in the day.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Wednesday.

There remains uncertainty heading into next week regarding the
amount of moisture that hangs around the area. ECMWF ensemble means
indicate a westward shift of the upper-level area of high pressure
currently centered over the southern Plains. This would cut off the
monsoonal moisture flow and return above-average temperatures to the
area. However, the GEFS holds onto moisture well into next work
week, with daily afternoon precipitation chances in northwestern
Arizona and the mountains of southeastern Nevada thanks to a
persistent southerly flow aloft. The NBM returns temperatures to 5-7
degrees above seasonal normals next week, which hints that the NBM
is favoring the ECMWF solution. Confidence will increase as we
approach the weekend.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...South-southwest winds will persist
into this evening with frequent gusts around 20 knots from 18Z-03Z.
Skies will remain clear.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...South-southwest winds 10-15 knots can be expected
across much of the region with gusts 20-25 knots during the
afternoon hours. Winds at KBIH will be generally light through the
afternoon, but occasional south winds up to 8 knots are possible
after 22z. Mostly clear skies across the region.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Morgan
LONG TERM...Soulat
AVIATION...Gorelow

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