791
FXUS65 KVEF 131913
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
Issued by National Weather Service Reno NV
1213 PM PDT Tue Aug 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry air will limit afternoon convection to the eastern
portion of the Arizona Strip, with dry and breezy conditions across
the rest of our forecast area. The lingering moisture helping fuel
today`s storms in the Arizona Strip will be scrubbed from the
region tomorrow, with dry conditions and seasonal temperatures
across the entire region through the end of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Monday.

Much drier air is in place across the region today, as is evident
from looking at surface observations. The exception to this
statement is Mohave County, where dew point temperatures remain
in the 50s. Locally here in Las Vegas, dew points have dropped
into the lower 40s, a nice relief from the 60 degree dew points
of the past few days. Limited moisture means limited chances for
afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The best chances for
afternoon storms will be in the eastern Arizona Strip, where there
is a 20% to 40% chance of precipitation. The breezy southwesterly
winds that accompanied this drying trend will continue into the
afternoon. The strongest of these winds will occur in the belt
extending across the Mojave Desert, through southern Nevada, and
into northwestern Arizona. 25 to 35 mph westerly to southwesterly
wind gusts are expected across these areas this afternoon, with
winds beginning to decrease after sunset.

By tomorrow our anomalous monsoonal moisture will have been scrubbed
from the area, with no precipitation in the forecast through at
least Friday. Temperatures across the region will hover right around
normal for mid-August, making for a beautiful second half of the
week in terms of weather.

Forecast uncertainty increases as we head into the weekend and begin
looking at the potential for moisture to return to the area. An
upper-level trough will dig along the West Coast, with a ridge of
high pressure positioned off to our east. This will put us under
southerly to southwesterly flow aloft. Given that southerly flow
aloft will open up the doors for moisture to begin creeping into the
area and southwesterly flow would keep things on the drier side, the
exact orientation of winds aloft will play an important role in when
moisture returns to the area. Currently the GFS ensemble mean has
moisture returning to the southern and eastern portions of our
forecast area on Saturday, slightly sooner than it`s ECMWF
counterpart. This can be seen in the slight uptick in precipitation
chances across eastern Mohave County on Saturday afternoon and
evening. Storm chances for the rest of the area remain uncertain and
will depend on just how far this moisture creeps in.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Southwest winds will remain in place
through much of today with speeds 7-10 knots with gusts up to 20
knots this morning. Wind speeds are expected to increase later this
morning with speeds 10-15 knots and gusts 20-25 knots. This
southwest flow will bring in drier air which will keep any
thunderstorm activity well east of the airport. Skies will be SKC-
FEW120.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...South-southwest winds will develop at most TAF sites
through this afternoon with gusts generally 25-30 knots from KDAG to
KLAS. Winds at KBIH will generally remain light through the day with
increasing northwest wind after 00z this evening. Drier air will
push into the region today, but a few storms will be possible from
early this morning through the afternoon over northwest Arizona.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stessman
AVIATION...Gorelow

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