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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
791 FXUS65 KVEF 131913 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV Issued by National Weather Service Reno NV 1213 PM PDT Tue Aug 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Dry air will limit afternoon convection to the eastern portion of the Arizona Strip, with dry and breezy conditions across the rest of our forecast area. The lingering moisture helping fuel today`s storms in the Arizona Strip will be scrubbed from the region tomorrow, with dry conditions and seasonal temperatures across the entire region through the end of the work week. && .DISCUSSION...through Monday. Much drier air is in place across the region today, as is evident from looking at surface observations. The exception to this statement is Mohave County, where dew point temperatures remain in the 50s. Locally here in Las Vegas, dew points have dropped into the lower 40s, a nice relief from the 60 degree dew points of the past few days. Limited moisture means limited chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The best chances for afternoon storms will be in the eastern Arizona Strip, where there is a 20% to 40% chance of precipitation. The breezy southwesterly winds that accompanied this drying trend will continue into the afternoon. The strongest of these winds will occur in the belt extending across the Mojave Desert, through southern Nevada, and into northwestern Arizona. 25 to 35 mph westerly to southwesterly wind gusts are expected across these areas this afternoon, with winds beginning to decrease after sunset. By tomorrow our anomalous monsoonal moisture will have been scrubbed from the area, with no precipitation in the forecast through at least Friday. Temperatures across the region will hover right around normal for mid-August, making for a beautiful second half of the week in terms of weather. Forecast uncertainty increases as we head into the weekend and begin looking at the potential for moisture to return to the area. An upper-level trough will dig along the West Coast, with a ridge of high pressure positioned off to our east. This will put us under southerly to southwesterly flow aloft. Given that southerly flow aloft will open up the doors for moisture to begin creeping into the area and southwesterly flow would keep things on the drier side, the exact orientation of winds aloft will play an important role in when moisture returns to the area. Currently the GFS ensemble mean has moisture returning to the southern and eastern portions of our forecast area on Saturday, slightly sooner than it`s ECMWF counterpart. This can be seen in the slight uptick in precipitation chances across eastern Mohave County on Saturday afternoon and evening. Storm chances for the rest of the area remain uncertain and will depend on just how far this moisture creeps in. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Southwest winds will remain in place through much of today with speeds 7-10 knots with gusts up to 20 knots this morning. Wind speeds are expected to increase later this morning with speeds 10-15 knots and gusts 20-25 knots. This southwest flow will bring in drier air which will keep any thunderstorm activity well east of the airport. Skies will be SKC- FEW120. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...South-southwest winds will develop at most TAF sites through this afternoon with gusts generally 25-30 knots from KDAG to KLAS. Winds at KBIH will generally remain light through the day with increasing northwest wind after 00z this evening. Drier air will push into the region today, but a few storms will be possible from early this morning through the afternoon over northwest Arizona. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Stessman AVIATION...Gorelow For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter