862
FXUS65 KVEF 150416 AAA
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
915 PM PDT Wed Aug 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions and afternoon breezes will continue
through the end of the work week along with near normal
temperatures. The eastern portions of our forecast area will see
monsoonal moisture and chances for afternoon showers and
thunderstorms return to the area over the weekend. The western
half of our forecast area will not be as lucky, with dry and gusty
conditions expected over the weekend.
&&


.UPDATE...Winds are calm across the region this evening.
Slightly-above-average temperatures will continue through Friday
with dry conditions expected. No changes made to the forecast this
evening as it remains in good shape.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...141 PM PDT Wed Aug 14 2024/


.DISCUSSION...Today through Tuesday.

Dry and breezy conditions with slightly above average temperatures
are on tap for the region through the Friday. Things will get a
little more interesting heading into the weekend as a trough digs
along the West Coast with an upper-level ridge positioned off to our
east. This set up will result in southerly winds aloft in the
eastern portions of our forecast area and southwesterly flow aloft
in the western half of our forecast area. The southerly flow over
our eastern zones will open the door for monsoonal moisture to
return to the area, bringing increased chances for afternoon showers
and thunderstorms with it. Northwestern Arizona and the higher
terrain of Clark and Lincoln counties will have the best shot at
seeing afternoon convection each afternoon from Saturday through
Monday. Precipitation chances beyond Monday will depend on how the
upper-level trough and ridge interact with each other. The ECMWF
ensemble mean solution shows the upper-level flow shifting more to
the southwest, drying things out, and limiting precipitation
chances. However, the GFS ensemble mean keeps the southerly flow
across the eastern portions of our forecast area beyond Tuesday,
keeping the moisture in place.

Meanwhile, our western zones will find themselves under dry
southwesterly flow aloft. Without the influx of monsoonal moisture,
afternoon relative humidity values will continue to bottom out in
the single digits across. These dry conditions combined with gusty
southwesterly winds over the weekend will lead to elevated fire
weather concerns, especially in Esmeralda and Nye counties where
fuels are critical. While the gusty winds are not expected to
continue into next week, the dry conditions will.
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...South-southwest winds will persist
through Thursday with frequent gusts around 20 knots from 18Z-03Z.
Skies will remain clear.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...South-southwest winds 10-15 knots can be expected
across much of the region with gusts 20-25 knots during the
afternoon hours. Winds at KBIH will be northwest at night and south
during the day generally less than 10 knots. Mostly clear skies
across the region.
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Soulat
DISCUSSION...Stessman
AVIATION...Adair

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