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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
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285 FXUS63 KUNR 151026 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 426 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -Cooler this week with chances for storms most days -A few stronger storms possible this afternoon and evening && .DISCUSSION...(Today Through Sunday) Issued at 104 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Water vapor shows upper high over the Southern Rockies with short wave trof over southern ALTA/Manitoba, which is flattening the ridge over the Northern Plains. At the surface, low is over north-central SD with cold front along a line that extends through KPHP and KIEN early this morning. Isolated to scattered showers/storms moving across the region. Showers/storms will continue into the morning hours, shifting east by late morning. Additional activity expected later this afternoon mainly from northeast WY into the Black Hills and southwest SD as next upstream wave moves through the strengthening west/northwest flow aloft. Shear is rather marginal but enough for a couple stronger storms, although CAM`s don`t show much in the way of significant storms. Activity will spread east through the night into south-central SD, with another band of storms possibly diving southeast to near the ND/SD border towards daybreak. Highs today will be in the 80s to lower 90s with northerly winds behind the cold front. Additional storms possible on Tuesday afternoon/evening with stronger short wave trof moving through and steep lapse rates in place with northwest flow aloft. Highs will be similar or a degree or two cooler than today, with continued northerly flow. Slightly drier conditions expected Wednesday with more subsidence behind the Tuesday short wave, with better focus around and south of the Black Hills. Next strong short wave trof looks to move through Thursday night/early Friday, with temperatures rebounding a few degrees late week as upper ridge amplifies over the Northern Rockies. Better focus for storms may shift a bit east over the weekend as upper ridge attempts to build into the Northern Plains. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Tuesday Morning) Issued At 425 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024 VFR conditions are generally expected through today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into tonight, especially from northeast WY to southwest SD. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Johnson AVIATION...Wong