Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
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239 FXUS63 KUNR 161012 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 412 AM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Normal summer conditions continue && .DISCUSSION...(Today Through Monday) Issued at 142 AM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Current surface map places weak low across eastern Montana. Shortwave embedded in northwest flow is tracking across eastern Montana with weak theta-e advection bringing isolated/scattered convection across eastern Montana into central South Dakota. Current activity will shift eastward by daybreak. Focus will turn to thunderstorms this afternoon. Surface low drops through south central South Dakota into Nebraska this afternoon. With steep mid level lapse rates, MLCAPE of 1500-2000J/KG expected across south central South Dakota. Sufficient shear to support isolated severe threat. Timing of shortwave suggest best thunderstorm coverage/severe threat will be south of the forecast area. Northwest flow aloft continues across the through the remainder of the week as persistent upper level ridge remains across the Intermountain west. Surface high slips through the eastern Dakotas on Wednesday/Thursday with drier conditions for much of the area. Narrow axis of buoyancy will favor some isolated thunderstorm activity across northeastern Wyoming/western South Dakota Wednesday and Thursday. The chance for thunderstorms continue into the weekend as several impulses rotate over the ridge and drop through the plains. Highs will mainly be in the 80s through the forecast period with 70s in the Black Hills. Thursday and Friday will be the warmest days with some locations on the plains reaching the lower 90s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Wednesday Morning) Issued At 409 AM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Isolated showers and storms will develop across northwestern SD this morning with LCL MVFR conditions near any storms. Isolated storms may develop this afternoon, especially across the Black Hills into south central SD. Some storms over south central SD may be strong to severe and capable of hail and gusty, erratic winds. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...7 AVIATION...Wong