937
FXUS64 KTSA 151714
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1214 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1030 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Cluster of morning storms has weakened and largely moved off to
the northeast as of mid-morning. Outflow boundary laid down
across northeast OK will remain present to some degree through the
afternoon and serve as potential focus for additional development
late this afternoon. Locations north of the boundary are still
expected to maintain slightly lower heat indices this afternoon,
while excessive heat warning conditions are likely to be met in a
corridor to the south, similar to what was observed yesterday. A
few small changes to the first period forecast have been made,
but heat headlines left intact.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today into Tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Another day of dangerous heat is on tap for eastern Oklahoma
and western Arkansas today with heat index values topping out
in the 105 to 115 degree range across much of the area this
afternoon. Will leave the current heat headlines as is for now.

There will be a couple of opportunities for isolated to scattered
showers/storms today. The first chance will be this morning across
northeast Oklahoma as a thunderstorm complex moving across southeast
Kansas may clip the area. The next chance of showers and storms will arrive
later this afternoon/evening as a weak frontal boundary moves toward the
Kansas/Oklahoma border and the outflow boundary from the morning
storms lingers near the I-44 corridor. A few of these storms could
be strong to severe with damaging winds the main concern.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Temperatures at or above normal are expected to continue through
the weekend across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas with heat
headlines likely for portions of the area. There will be low chances
of showers/storms Friday into Saturday as a weak surface front sags
through the area. The greatest potential for storms during this time
is expected to be north of I-40.

The models are trending slightly cooler as we move into next week
as the upper level ridge is forecast to retrograde further to the
west. This will result in more of a northwesterly flow aloft over
the region which could also lead to additional chances of showers/storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. By late
this afternoon isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop along an outflow boundary across northeast OK. AS such the
NE OK sites will include VCTS from about 00-05z this evening.
Very low probability of direct flight impacts at any one site.
SLim chance of some storms holding together into NW AR, but have
not included at this time due to low confidence.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  98  76 100 /  30  10  30  10
FSM   78 100  77 100 /  10  10  20  10
MLC   77 100  76 100 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   71  98  71  99 /  30  20  40  10
FYV   74  97  72  97 /  20  20  30  30
BYV   73  98  69  95 /  20  20  40  30
MKO   75  98  75  98 /  20  10  20  10
MIO   71  96  70  95 /  30  20  50  20
F10   75  99  74  99 /  20  10  10  10
HHW   78 101  77 103 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>059-062-
     063-068-069-073-075.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ060-
     061-064>067-070>072-074-076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-
     020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...14