869
FXUS64 KTSA 162326
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
626 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Small cluster of storms keeps chugging along across southern
Kansas this afternoon near a frontal boundary. A very unstable and
weakly capped airmass resides south of the boundary over much of
eastern OK, with DCAPES >1500. Present trends continue to defy CAM
solutions and imply a threat of this cluster eventually moving
into far northeast OK later this afternoon, posing at least a low
threat of damaging wind gusts given the environment south of the
boundary.

Otherwise, dangerously hot and humid conditions persist this
afternoon with heat warnings/advisories continuing through 9 PM.
Still expected re-juivenated convection later this evening north
of the boundary with greatest concentration of storms across NE OK
and NW AR this evening and overnight. Some storm organization is
likely with relatively strong deep layer flow for August, with
damaging wind gusts the primary hazard, but some large hail
potential as well at least initially. Pockets of heavy rainfall
also appear likely, which could lead to localized flooding
potential if heavier rain rates can coincide with locations that
have seen heavier totals as of late.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Expectation is for convection to be ongoing across mainly NW AR
early Saturday morning. The brunt of organized activity may have
mostly shifted east and south by 12z or shortly thereafter, some
continued rejuvenation of storms remains possible through the
morning within the frontal zone draped across extreme NE OK and NW
AR. The severe threat should be lower at this point, but the
heavy rain threat will continue. Outside of the influence of any
morning convection, dangerously hot and humid conditions are once
again expected Saturday, and additional heat warnings and
advisories have been issued. Notable exception may be the above
mentioned area of NW AR and extreme NE OK where residual cloud
cover may hamper this to some degree. FOr the time being have
kept NW AR out of any headlines, and went with an advisory for the
AR River valley area as confidence is lower in those areas.

Some additional thunderstorm chances continue Late Saturday into
Sunday, primarily across NW AR. Hot weather will continue with
additional headlines likely needed for some areas. Overall the
pattern favors a gradual trend toward not as hot and humid weather
from Monday onward and, whole the forecast does not explicitly
mention any storm chances next week, we do remain on the periphery
of upper ridge with a NNW flow aloft, raising some uncertainty in
keeping a dry forecast. IN any case we will get a break from the
excessive heat, first across NW AR/NE OK, then most everywhere by
mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

An isolated severe thunderstorm has shifted east of KROG with conditions
improving. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop across
far NE OK/NW AR by late evening with cluster of storms likely
impacting several TAF sites across aforementioned area into the
overnight hours. IFR conditions will be possible in the stronger
storms with very heavy rain/gusty winds. Additional storms may
also redevelop on western flank of activity in convergent zone of
low level jet. Thunderstorm chances are expected to diminish by
mid morning Saturday with VFR conditions for the remainder of the
forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  98  76  96 /  30  10  10  10
FSM   78  97  77  99 /  20  20  10  10
MLC   78  99  76 101 /  10  10   0  10
BVO   71  97  71  94 /  40  20  10  10
FYV   72  94  71  94 /  60  40  10  20
BYV   70  94  70  92 /  70  50  20  20
MKO   75  96  75  96 /  30  20  10  10
MIO   70  94  70  91 /  70  30  10  10
F10   75  99  74  98 /  20  10   0  10
HHW   78 102  77 104 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054-058-059-063-
     068-069.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-
     053-055>057-060>062-064>067-070>076.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ054>059-063-
     068-072.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ049-
     053-060>062-064>067-070-071-073>076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-
     020-029.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...12