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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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931 FXUS64 KTSA 161613 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1113 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of today) Issued at 1113 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Another hot and humid day is expected across eastern Oklahoma and northwest and west central Arkansas today, with both air temperatures and dew points likely to be influenced by last night`s rains in a few places. Short-term models have the right idea in placing a dew point max in parts of the Tulsa metro, extending southward given where the heaviest rain fell last night, with the short-term blend reflecting a local minimum in highs in the same location. The dew points this afternoon have been adjusted using the values from the RAP, while adjustments to the afternoon temperatures have been made using the aforementioned short-term blend. Incorporating the updated temperatures and dew points, the Excessive Heat Warning has been expanded into Washington, Nowata, Craig and Mayes counties in northeast Oklahoma through 9 pm this evening. The other issue today is the potential for isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon in areas near the Kansas border. If thunderstorms develop during this time frame, severe weather potential will exist, with forecast soundings supporting both a damaging wind and hail threat. The previous forecast has this scenario handled well with no adjustments necessary. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage this evening/tonight as a mid-level shortwave trough slides off the High Plains and rides the northern fringe of the upper ridge and approaches the forecast area. Bulk shear (0-1km & 0-6km) will rapidly increase as the wave approaches. Steep low- level lapse rates from earlier in the day will remain in place through the evening. As a modest low-level jet develops after sunset, storms should grow upscale, with an MCS forecast to develop and move across portions of the forecast area late tonight and possibly through the overnight hours. Large hail and strong damaging wind gusts will be the main threats with the convection. With exceptionally high DCAPE values produced by CAMs, would not be surprised if a few storms produced wind gusts in excess of 70 mph. PoPs may need to be adjusted through the day today as updated short-range models/CAMs get a better grasp of the setup this evening/tonight. In addition to the severe threat, moderate to heavy rain may accompany the storms. Heavier storms/stronger updrafts will be capable of producing minor flooding and perhaps isolated flash flooding. Hot and humid weather will persist on Saturday as the aforementioned stationary surface frontal boundary begins to slide southward some during the daytime on Saturday. Guidance shows the frontal boundary pushing south of I-40 by Sunday morning where it seems to stall again in far southeast OK by Sunday afternoon/evening. Nevertheless, additional heat headlines look to be needed both on Saturday and again on Sunday for portions of the forecast area. The frontal boundary will gradually sag south of the Red River by Monday, with widespread unseasonably cooler temperatures through at least the first half of next week. Despite the strong ridge over the Southern Plains this weekend (before retrograding westward early-mid part of next week), guidance suggests almost a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms as the forecast area remains in a north-northwest flow/deformation zone aloft, with ridging to the west and and deepening trough to the east of the area. For now, kept the conservative NBM solution for PoPs. These PoPs will likely need to be adjusted in the upcoming days. Mejia && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 626 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the day today. Scattered thunderstorms will become more likely this evening into the early part of the overnight hours, with ceiling and visibility reductions expected in storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 97 76 98 75 / 10 30 0 10 FSM 100 77 100 78 / 10 20 0 10 MLC 101 76 102 76 / 10 10 0 0 BVO 99 71 97 70 / 20 40 0 10 FYV 96 72 96 72 / 10 50 10 10 BYV 97 70 95 69 / 10 50 10 10 MKO 97 75 99 75 / 10 20 0 10 MIO 99 70 95 70 / 10 70 10 10 F10 100 74 101 74 / 10 10 0 10 HHW 101 77 102 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054-058-059-063- 068-069. Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049- 053-060-061-064>067-070>076. Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055>057-062. AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011. Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019- 020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...05