931
FXUS64 KTSA 161613
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1113 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today)
Issued at 1113 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Another hot and humid day is expected across eastern Oklahoma and
northwest and west central Arkansas today, with both air
temperatures and dew points likely to be influenced by last
night`s rains in a few places. Short-term models have the right
idea in placing a dew point max in parts of the Tulsa metro,
extending southward given where the heaviest rain fell last night,
with the short-term blend reflecting a local minimum in highs in
the same location. The dew points this afternoon have been
adjusted using the values from the RAP, while adjustments to the
afternoon temperatures have been made using the aforementioned
short-term blend. Incorporating the updated temperatures and dew
points, the Excessive Heat Warning has been expanded into
Washington, Nowata, Craig and Mayes counties in northeast Oklahoma
through 9 pm this evening.

The other issue today is the potential for isolated thunderstorm
development this afternoon in areas near the Kansas border. If
thunderstorms develop during this time frame, severe weather
potential will exist, with forecast soundings supporting both a
damaging wind and hail threat. The previous forecast has this
scenario handled well with no adjustments necessary.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to increase in
coverage this evening/tonight as a mid-level shortwave trough
slides off the High Plains and rides the northern fringe of the
upper ridge and approaches the forecast area. Bulk shear (0-1km &
0-6km) will rapidly increase as the wave approaches. Steep low-
level lapse rates from earlier in the day will remain in place
through the evening. As a modest low-level jet develops after
sunset, storms should grow upscale, with an MCS forecast to
develop and move across portions of the forecast area late tonight
and possibly through the overnight hours. Large hail and strong
damaging wind gusts will be the main threats with the convection.
With exceptionally high DCAPE values produced by CAMs, would not
be surprised if a few storms produced wind gusts in excess of 70
mph. PoPs may need to be adjusted through the day today as updated
short-range models/CAMs get a better grasp of the setup this
evening/tonight. In addition to the severe threat, moderate to
heavy rain may accompany the storms. Heavier storms/stronger
updrafts will be capable of producing minor flooding and perhaps
isolated flash flooding.

Hot and humid weather will persist on Saturday as the
aforementioned stationary surface frontal boundary begins to
slide southward some during the daytime on Saturday. Guidance
shows the frontal boundary pushing south of I-40 by Sunday morning
where it seems to stall again in far southeast OK by Sunday
afternoon/evening. Nevertheless, additional heat headlines look to
be needed both on Saturday and again on Sunday for portions of the
forecast area. The frontal boundary will gradually sag south of
the Red River by Monday, with widespread unseasonably cooler
temperatures through at least the first half of next week. Despite
the strong ridge over the Southern Plains this weekend (before
retrograding westward early-mid part of next week), guidance
suggests almost a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms as the
forecast area remains in a north-northwest flow/deformation zone
aloft, with ridging to the west and and deepening trough to the
east of the area. For now, kept the conservative NBM solution for
PoPs. These PoPs will likely need to be adjusted in the upcoming
days.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the day today. Scattered
thunderstorms will become more likely this evening into the early
part of the overnight hours, with ceiling and visibility
reductions expected in storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  76  98  75 /  10  30   0  10
FSM  100  77 100  78 /  10  20   0  10
MLC  101  76 102  76 /  10  10   0   0
BVO   99  71  97  70 /  20  40   0  10
FYV   96  72  96  72 /  10  50  10  10
BYV   97  70  95  69 /  10  50  10  10
MKO   97  75  99  75 /  10  20   0  10
MIO   99  70  95  70 /  10  70  10  10
F10  100  74 101  74 /  10  10   0  10
HHW  101  77 102  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054-058-059-063-
     068-069.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-
     053-060-061-064>067-070>076.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ055>057-062.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-
     020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...05