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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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898 FXUS64 KTSA 170839 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 339 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 339 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Widely scattered strong/severe thunderstorms continue to develop across far eastern OK and northwest AR early this morning. This activity is just now showing signs of weakening in comparison to a couple of hours ago. Latest surface analysis indicates an extensive outflow boundary from convection in central AR advancing southward across southeast OK. Warm air advection overrunning the outflow has generated a few clusters of thunderstorms, which are riding a 700-500mb moisture axis across far eastern OK/northwest AR. Sufficient instability, shear, and lift are supporting strong to severe storms, with large hail and gusty winds being the primary hazards with this activity. Guidance has the storms continuing to weaken over the next few hours. Will monitor trends and amend the near-term grids as necessary. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect for west-central AR as well as Sequoya and Le Flore counties in OK until 4 AM this morning. Showers and thunderstorms should continue to decrease in coverage through the morning, with mostly dry conditions by midday. Dangerous heat and humidity will once again be the main storyline today once the precipitation ends. Rainfall from last night/this morning will likely keep dewpoint temperatures elevated through the day, especially locations that have received wetting rainfall over the last 12-24 hours. With ambient air temperatures expected to rise into the mid-upper 90s and lower 100s, oppressive heat is likely again today for most locations in the forecast area. Have included far northwest AR in a Heat Advisory and upgraded portions of west- central AR/northeast OK in an Excessive Heat Warning, both of which go into effect from noon until 9 PM tonight. Mejia && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 339 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Strong mid/upper-level ridging will slide eastward over the TX/OK Panhandles by this evening/tonight. Meanwhile, a fairly deep upper-level trough will further deepen along the east coast of the US through the rest of the weekend. This will result in eastern OK/northwest AR being in a deformation zone of NNW flow aloft. Models and ensembles show this pattern persisting through at least the first half of next week. Closer to the surface, modest warm air advection is forecast to continue affecting the region through the remainder of the weekend. Heat headlines look likely to be needed again on Sunday for most locations. Better details on this will come in the next forecast package. On Sunday, surface high pressure is expected to move into the Northern/Central Plains from Canada, positioning itself over the Upper Midwest by Sunday night/Monday morning. As this occurs, the surface high will gradually push a backdoor frontal boundary through the area during the daytime Sunday, with the front pushing south of the Red River late Sunday night or early Monday morning. Following the front, guidance shows temperatures dropping slightly below or near seasonal average through midweek, with a gradual climb in temperatures by late next week as ridging begins to build back over the Plains. Low-end precipitation chances will occur almost daily for at least some portions of the forecast area into midweek. Medium- range models indicate chances "maximize" along/near the aforementioned shear axis/deformation zone aloft. The best chance (30-50%) of precipitation in the long-term period will occur Sunday afternoon/evening and into the overnight hours in association with the frontal boundary that will be moving through the area. The Storm Prediction Center has included most of the forecast area in a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms Sunday as there should be sufficient instability, shear, and lift along the front to spark a few strong to severe storms. Sporadic low chances of precipitation will linger Monday, Tuesday, and possibly into Wednesday before upper-level ridging repositions itself over the Southern/Central Plains and essentially end chances through the remainder of the forecast period. Mejia && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1142 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Well defined cold pool has spread across NE OK / NW AR from evening storms. This boundary may be sufficient for the S-SW overnight low level jet to maintain scattered storm development and forecast will mention potential thunderstorm impacts for all terminals. Precip cover expected to wane by mid to late morning with VFR conditions then prevailing. Storms may again develop Saturday night but current guidance suggests this potential is more likely just beyond this forecast valid time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 99 76 97 74 / 10 10 10 20 FSM 100 77 100 75 / 50 0 10 30 MLC 101 77 102 76 / 20 0 10 10 BVO 97 72 95 70 / 10 10 10 30 FYV 95 72 95 69 / 50 10 20 40 BYV 94 71 93 67 / 40 10 20 40 MKO 96 76 99 74 / 30 0 10 20 MIO 94 71 94 68 / 30 10 20 40 F10 98 75 101 74 / 20 10 10 10 HHW 102 77 105 77 / 10 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054-058-059-063-068-069. Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-055>057-060>062-064>067-070>076. AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011. Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...07