987
FXUS64 KTSA 101754 CCA
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1254 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1027 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Latest mesoscale analysis from SPC indicates a small vort max
embedded in a mid-level shortwave trough across western/central
OK that has been producing scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms over the past several hours. Most of this
convective activity has been weakening as it approaching the
forecast area. Nevertheless, short-term guidance and recent runs
of the CAMs have been struggling with the intensity/coverage of
the current activity. With that said, have manually adjusted
PoPs/Wx/Sky grids through the rest of the morning and into the
afternoon hours based on radar/satellite trends from the past few
hours. With forecast uncertainty high, these changes may need to
be further adjusted as the morning and afternoon progresses.
Otherwise, the rest of the forecast for today looks to be on track
at this time.

Mejia

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Showers across the northwestern quarter of Oklahoma have made slow
progress eastward toward eastern Oklahoma, with a general decrease
in intensity on its eastern flank. This trends supports the
earlier forecast that areas along and west of Highway 75 have the
best chance to see showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder through
the morning hours, a scenario that the NBM has handled well.
Additional development may occur later in the day, which should be
focused along the north of I-40 near the mid level wind maximum.
It`s worth noting that the HREF does show some development farther
to the south into southeast Oklahoma, and as such, will extend low
end POPs mid to late afternoon into areas near the Red River.

The combination of the cloud cover and potential for rain today
will lead to daytime temperatures that are again, more similar to
overnight temperatures this time of year, especially in northeast
Oklahoma. Today should be the coolest day of the period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Locally heavy rain potential will increase late tonight and into
tomorrow, as an overnight thunderstorm complex moves in from the
north and west. Forecast precipitable water values in excess of
two inches should lead to efficient rainfall and amounts in the 1
to 3 inch range primarily from 06Z to 18Z on Sunday from I-40
north.

As the upper level high builds to the north and east back into the
region, the southern edge of the overnight/early morning rainfall
will progressively shift northward with time into early next week.
Late Sunday night and into Monday, areas along the Kansas and
Missouri borders will still have a good chance for showers and
thunderstorms, including an additional threat for locally heavy
rains in far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

Heat and humidity will return to the region during the early to
middle part of next week, as the high builds back into the area.
The rains expected this weekend will bring a period of higher dew
points next week that in conjunction with above normal afternoon
temperatures, should lead to dangerous heat index values. Heat
headlines - including potential for warnings - should be expected
by early to mid week.

An upper level trough moving through the Central United States
late next week and into next weekend should bring cooler
temperatures and potential for more rain, although given the
difference in model solutions, confidence in the details is rather
low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, associated with an
upper level disturbance, continue to move across central/southern
OK into eastern OK early this afternoon. This activity has
gradually been weakening as it approaches eastern OK.
Nevertheless, kept VCSH at all terminals through late
afternoon/sunset timeframe, despite dissipating trends in model
guidance this afternoon. Will amend TAFs if shower activity is
imminent in impacting any of the TAF sites.

A better chance of widespread showers and thunderstorms will
occur after midnight tonight as another upper level disturbance
sweeps across the region. There is a good chance that showers and
thunderstorms will impact all TAF sites through much of Sunday
morning and possibly lasting into the afternoon hours. Guidance
shows ceilings lowering to or near MVFR west-to-east by mid-late
morning Sunday, with a mixture of MVFR/VFR ceilings through 18z.
Precipitation that develops/moves over any of the aerodromes will
be capable of heavy rain and cloud-to-ground lightning and may
briefly drop vsbys down to IFR/LIFR levels.

Light east to east-northeast winds should gradually veer toward
the southeast. Winds will be erratic/variable with any convection.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  67  81  70 /  40  80  80  40
FSM   87  69  80  69 /  20  40  50  20
MLC   88  69  86  73 /  30  50  50  10
BVO   74  62  80  67 /  50  70  80  50
FYV   81  63  78  65 /  30  40  60  50
BYV   81  62  78  63 /  20  30  50  50
MKO   82  67  79  68 /  40  70  70  30
MIO   78  64  78  66 /  30  50  70  70
F10   82  67  83  70 /  40  70  70  20
HHW   92  71  90  71 /  20  10  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...67