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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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987 FXUS64 KTSA 101754 CCA AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1254 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1027 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Latest mesoscale analysis from SPC indicates a small vort max embedded in a mid-level shortwave trough across western/central OK that has been producing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the past several hours. Most of this convective activity has been weakening as it approaching the forecast area. Nevertheless, short-term guidance and recent runs of the CAMs have been struggling with the intensity/coverage of the current activity. With that said, have manually adjusted PoPs/Wx/Sky grids through the rest of the morning and into the afternoon hours based on radar/satellite trends from the past few hours. With forecast uncertainty high, these changes may need to be further adjusted as the morning and afternoon progresses. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast for today looks to be on track at this time. Mejia && .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 303 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Showers across the northwestern quarter of Oklahoma have made slow progress eastward toward eastern Oklahoma, with a general decrease in intensity on its eastern flank. This trends supports the earlier forecast that areas along and west of Highway 75 have the best chance to see showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder through the morning hours, a scenario that the NBM has handled well. Additional development may occur later in the day, which should be focused along the north of I-40 near the mid level wind maximum. It`s worth noting that the HREF does show some development farther to the south into southeast Oklahoma, and as such, will extend low end POPs mid to late afternoon into areas near the Red River. The combination of the cloud cover and potential for rain today will lead to daytime temperatures that are again, more similar to overnight temperatures this time of year, especially in northeast Oklahoma. Today should be the coolest day of the period. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 303 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Locally heavy rain potential will increase late tonight and into tomorrow, as an overnight thunderstorm complex moves in from the north and west. Forecast precipitable water values in excess of two inches should lead to efficient rainfall and amounts in the 1 to 3 inch range primarily from 06Z to 18Z on Sunday from I-40 north. As the upper level high builds to the north and east back into the region, the southern edge of the overnight/early morning rainfall will progressively shift northward with time into early next week. Late Sunday night and into Monday, areas along the Kansas and Missouri borders will still have a good chance for showers and thunderstorms, including an additional threat for locally heavy rains in far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Heat and humidity will return to the region during the early to middle part of next week, as the high builds back into the area. The rains expected this weekend will bring a period of higher dew points next week that in conjunction with above normal afternoon temperatures, should lead to dangerous heat index values. Heat headlines - including potential for warnings - should be expected by early to mid week. An upper level trough moving through the Central United States late next week and into next weekend should bring cooler temperatures and potential for more rain, although given the difference in model solutions, confidence in the details is rather low at this time. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, associated with an upper level disturbance, continue to move across central/southern OK into eastern OK early this afternoon. This activity has gradually been weakening as it approaches eastern OK. Nevertheless, kept VCSH at all terminals through late afternoon/sunset timeframe, despite dissipating trends in model guidance this afternoon. Will amend TAFs if shower activity is imminent in impacting any of the TAF sites. A better chance of widespread showers and thunderstorms will occur after midnight tonight as another upper level disturbance sweeps across the region. There is a good chance that showers and thunderstorms will impact all TAF sites through much of Sunday morning and possibly lasting into the afternoon hours. Guidance shows ceilings lowering to or near MVFR west-to-east by mid-late morning Sunday, with a mixture of MVFR/VFR ceilings through 18z. Precipitation that develops/moves over any of the aerodromes will be capable of heavy rain and cloud-to-ground lightning and may briefly drop vsbys down to IFR/LIFR levels. Light east to east-northeast winds should gradually veer toward the southeast. Winds will be erratic/variable with any convection. Mejia && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 78 67 81 70 / 40 80 80 40 FSM 87 69 80 69 / 20 40 50 20 MLC 88 69 86 73 / 30 50 50 10 BVO 74 62 80 67 / 50 70 80 50 FYV 81 63 78 65 / 30 40 60 50 BYV 81 62 78 63 / 20 30 50 50 MKO 82 67 79 68 / 40 70 70 30 MIO 78 64 78 66 / 30 50 70 70 F10 82 67 83 70 / 40 70 70 20 HHW 92 71 90 71 / 20 10 20 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...67