516
FXUS64 KTSA 241846
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
146 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 146 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2025

   - Hot and humid conditions will prevail for the next week with daily
     heat indices of 95-105 F across the area.

   - Daily isolated to scattered showers and storms likely much of
     this week.

   - Storm coverage may increase early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Persistent conditions continue through tonight. Highs this
afternoon will top out in the low to mid 90s with heat index
values around 100 degrees in most locations. Scattered shower and
storm development expected over the next couple of hours across
parts of southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Brief downpours
and some gusty winds could accompany any storms this afternoon.
Coverage should be a little more than yesterday, but still widely
scattered in nature. Storms should dissipate with the loss of
daytime heating toward sunset. The rest of the night will be mild
and dry area wide.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

The forecast will remain consistent through the rest of the
period. More isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development
within the higher terrain on Wednesday afternoon similar to the
previous few days. After that, the ridge begins to weaken and
flatten somewhat over the eastern CONUS which will allow some
thunderstorm activity to become possible across the northern
portions of the forecast area in the late afternoon and evening
hours through the end of the week. Several waves moving across the
northern state could push a weak backdoor frontal boundary into
the region by late in the weekend toward early next week. If this
occurs, this would provide more of a focus for more widespread
storm development, but model uncertainty remains high at this
time.

Temperatures will mostly run near seasonal average with heat index
values ranging from 95 to 105 across the region through the
period. Any exception would be with any shower/storm that moves
over a location during the afternoon could provide a short term
relief.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Scattered cumulus have developed from southeast Oklahoma into
northwest Arkansas.  Isolated thundestorms are expected in this
zone, but given the limited coverage, thunderstorms are not
mentioned in the TAFs.  Any storms that occur should dissipate
by sunset.  Otherwise VFR conditions are forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  92  75  92 /   0  10   0  10
FSM   74  95  74  94 /  20  20   0  10
MLC   73  91  72  91 /   0  10   0  10
BVO   72  92  72  92 /   0  10   0  10
FYV   72  92  72  91 /  20  20   0  10
BYV   71  91  71  91 /  20  20   0  10
MKO   73  90  72  90 /   0  10   0  10
MIO   72  90  73  91 /   0  10   0  10
F10   73  90  72  90 /   0  10   0  10
HHW   72  90  72  90 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...08