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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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766 FXUS64 KTSA 110526 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1226 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 838 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Current forecast for tonight is on track with only a few adjustments made to better reflect latest trends in observations and short term model guidance. && .SHORT TERM... (Thru Sunday) Issued at 141 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 A weak wave is sliding across OK today in the near zonal flow aloft. Will keep a low chance of showers in advance of this feature across my eastern areas this evening. The main focus then shifts to late tonight into Sunday. Warm/moist advection on the leading edge of a SWrly LLJ developing overnight will focus convection across south-central KS/north-central OK into northeast OK toward daybreak. This activity will gradually shift E/SE thru the morning into the early afternoon. Two inch PWATs, combined with some tendency for storms to train over the same areas with the focusing mechanism and movement fairly lined up, will bring the potential for locally heavy rainfall. Given recent dry conditions the flood threat still appears to be on the lower side, but if very heavy rains fall quickly in the right area, such as the Tulsa metro, some flooding could occur. The humidity will return on Sunday, but temps should still be held down by clouds and rain for at least part of the day. Some insolation is expected during the afternoon as the activity wanes and clouds scatter. This should allow temps to climb at least into the 80s most areas. Lacy && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 141 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 On Sunday night, the nose of the LLJ will be displaced northeast of where it will be tonight. Thus, the best waa forcing and storm coverage will be greatest across SE KS/SW MO, extending down into far NE OK and NW AR late Sunday night into Monday morning. A locally heavy rain threat will exist with this activity as well. After what is expected to be a dry and considerably warmer afternoon Monday across the region, some low storm chances will be maintained near the KS/MO borders Monday night into Tuesday as storms shift east from the central High Plains. A mid level ridge will strengthen Tuesday and Wednesday, centered near the ArkLaTex. The heat will crank up again, with heat headlines likely for portions of the area. Depending on where the rainfall footprint ends up, an area of locally higher dewpoints could yield criteria for heat warning during this stretch. There is less agreement in the models for the latter part of the week, with the EC now showing an upper trough sliding across the heart of the country, while the GFS maintaining some ridging aloft but with a back door front pushing into the area. For now, see no reason to change the blended guidance, which has low PoPs Thursday night into Friday and relatively cooler temps for Friday and Saturday. Lacy && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 RA/TSRA will begin to increase in coverage after 09z across NE OK and possibly NW AR, however greater impacts- MVFR cigs and vsbys in TSRA are expected mainly after 12z with coverage shifting east of the TAF sites by early to mid afternoon. Outside of TSRA impacts, VFR TAF elements will prevail at all sites during the valid period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 81 73 94 75 / 80 50 30 20 FSM 81 72 93 74 / 70 20 30 0 MLC 86 76 94 75 / 70 20 20 0 BVO 80 67 94 70 / 80 50 30 20 FYV 78 66 89 70 / 60 50 60 20 BYV 79 66 88 69 / 50 60 60 20 MKO 79 71 92 73 / 80 30 30 10 MIO 79 68 90 70 / 60 80 50 30 F10 84 74 94 74 / 80 20 20 0 HHW 90 73 95 75 / 30 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...23