766
FXUS64 KTSA 110526
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1226 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 838 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Current forecast for tonight is on track with only a few
adjustments made to better reflect latest trends in observations
and short term model guidance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thru Sunday)
Issued at 141 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

A weak wave is sliding across OK today in the near zonal flow
aloft. Will keep a low chance of showers in advance of this
feature across my eastern areas this evening. The main focus then
shifts to late tonight into Sunday. Warm/moist advection on the
leading edge of a SWrly LLJ developing overnight will focus
convection across south-central KS/north-central OK into northeast
OK toward daybreak. This activity will gradually shift E/SE thru
the morning into the early afternoon. Two inch PWATs, combined
with some tendency for storms to train over the same areas with
the focusing mechanism and movement fairly lined up, will bring
the potential for locally heavy rainfall. Given recent dry
conditions the flood threat still appears to be on the lower side,
but if very heavy rains fall quickly in the right area, such as
the Tulsa metro, some flooding could occur.

The humidity will return on Sunday, but temps should still be held
down by clouds and rain for at least part of the day. Some
insolation is expected during the afternoon as the activity wanes
and clouds scatter. This should allow temps to climb at least into
the 80s most areas.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 141 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

On Sunday night, the nose of the LLJ will be displaced northeast
of where it will be tonight. Thus, the best waa forcing and storm
coverage will be greatest across SE KS/SW MO, extending down into
far NE OK and NW AR late Sunday night into Monday morning. A
locally heavy rain threat will exist with this activity as well.
After what is expected to be a dry and considerably warmer
afternoon Monday across the region, some low storm chances will be
maintained near the KS/MO borders Monday night into Tuesday as
storms shift east from the central High Plains. A mid level ridge
will strengthen Tuesday and Wednesday, centered near the ArkLaTex.
The heat will crank up again, with heat headlines likely for
portions of the area. Depending on where the rainfall footprint
ends up, an area of locally higher dewpoints could yield criteria
for heat warning during this stretch.

There is less agreement in the models for the latter part of the
week, with the EC now showing an upper trough sliding across the
heart of the country, while the GFS maintaining some ridging aloft
but with a back door front pushing into the area. For now, see no
reason to change the blended guidance, which has low PoPs
Thursday night into Friday and relatively cooler temps for Friday
and Saturday.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

RA/TSRA will begin to increase in coverage after 09z across NE OK
and possibly NW AR, however greater impacts- MVFR cigs and vsbys
in TSRA are expected mainly after 12z with coverage shifting east
of the TAF sites by early to mid afternoon. Outside of TSRA
impacts, VFR TAF elements will prevail at all sites during the
valid period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  73  94  75 /  80  50  30  20
FSM   81  72  93  74 /  70  20  30   0
MLC   86  76  94  75 /  70  20  20   0
BVO   80  67  94  70 /  80  50  30  20
FYV   78  66  89  70 /  60  50  60  20
BYV   79  66  88  69 /  50  60  60  20
MKO   79  71  92  73 /  80  30  30  10
MIO   79  68  90  70 /  60  80  50  30
F10   84  74  94  74 /  80  20  20   0
HHW   90  73  95  75 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...23