611
FXUS64 KTSA 110141
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
841 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 838 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Current forecast for tonight is on track with only a few
adjustments made to better reflect latest trends in observations
and short term model guidance.



&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thru Sunday)
Issued at 141 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

A weak wave is sliding across OK today in the near zonal flow
aloft. Will keep a low chance of showers in advance of this
feature across my eastern areas this evening. The main focus then
shifts to late tonight into Sunday. Warm/moist advection on the
leading edge of a SWrly LLJ developing overnight will focus
convection across south-central KS/north-central OK into northeast
OK toward daybreak. This activity will gradually shift E/SE thru
the morning into the early afternoon. Two inch PWATs, combined
with some tendency for storms to train over the same areas with
the focusing mechanism and movement fairly lined up, will bring
the potential for locally heavy rainfall. Given recent dry
conditions the flood threat still appears to be on the lower side,
but if very heavy rains fall quickly in the right area, such as
the Tulsa metro, some flooding could occur.

The humidity will return on Sunday, but temps should still be held
down by clouds and rain for at least part of the day. Some
insolation is expected during the afternoon as the activity wanes
and clouds scatter. This should allow temps to climb at least into
the 80s most areas.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 141 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

On Sunday night, the nose of the LLJ will be displaced northeast
of where it will be tonight. Thus, the best waa forcing and storm
coverage will be greatest across SE KS/SW MO, extending down into
far NE OK and NW AR late Sunday night into Monday morning. A
locally heavy rain threat will exist with this activity as well.
After what is expected to be a dry and considerably warmer
afternoon Monday across the region, some low storm chances will be
maintained near the KS/MO borders Monday night into Tuesday as
storms shift east from the central High Plains. A mid level ridge
will strengthen Tuesday and Wednesday, centered near the ArkLaTex.
The heat will crank up again, with heat headlines likely for
portions of the area. Depending on where the rainfall footprint
ends up, an area of locally higher dewpoints could yield criteria
for heat warning during this stretch.

There is less agreement in the models for the latter part of the
week, with the EC now showing an upper trough sliding across the
heart of the country, while the GFS maintaining some ridging aloft
but with a back door front pushing into the area. For now, see no
reason to change the blended guidance, which has low PoPs
Thursday night into Friday and relatively cooler temps for Friday
and Saturday.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Isolated to scattered showers will likely continue into the
overnight hours with no aviation impact expected for much of the
night. Toward sunrise and increase in coverage and intensity in
precip is expected with thunderstorms expanding in coverage
through the morning across E OK and spreading east into NW AR.
Forecast will trend toward higher confidence in coverage and at
least periodic flight level impacts appear likely. Precip will end
from west to east along with a decrease trend in coverage during
the afternoon with VFR conditions likely area wide by mid to late
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  81  73  94 /  70  80  50  30
FSM   70  81  72  93 /  40  70  20  30
MLC   69  86  76  94 /  50  70  20  20
BVO   62  80  67  94 /  60  80  50  30
FYV   64  78  66  89 /  40  60  50  60
BYV   64  79  66  88 /  20  50  60  60
MKO   67  79  71  92 /  60  80  30  30
MIO   63  79  68  90 /  40  60  80  50
F10   66  84  74  94 /  70  80  20  20
HHW   72  90  73  95 /  20  30   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...07