627
FXUS64 KTSA 112323
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
623 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Thru Monday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

High PWAT air (2"+), warm advection and training storms did
indeed yield an area of heavy rainfall this morning across
northeast Oklahoma into a small portion of NW AR. Rainfall
estimates between 4 and 8 inches occurred within a west to east
zone between Tulsa and Ft Smith. There were reports of flooding in
Muskogee. Current surface analysis shows an extensive area of
rain/cloud cooled air across central into eastern OK and western
AR, with an outflow boundary extending W/NW into far W/SW OK.
Elevated storms persist in the transition zone between the 2
airmasses from central into eastern OK, but the current thinking
is that most of this activity should wane by 00Z. An isolated
surface based storm or two could develop closer to the outflow
over western OK, but chances are very low that any of this
activity would affect eastern OK.

The current forecast reasoning remains unchanged for the most
part. We should see another round of warm advection storms,
displaced northeast of last night`s activity, near the nose of a
developing SWrly LLJ near or after midnight. Activity will get
going over NE OK and then into the SE KS/SW MO/NW AR vicinity
near or after daybreak Monday as the better forcing shifts toward
that region. Similar to last night, storms could train over the
same areas as the forcing orientation and storm motion are near
parallel. Pockets of locally heavy rainfall could lead to some
flooding with high PWATs (2"+) in place. Confidence isn`t high
enough that heavy rain will track over last night`s heavy rain
footprint to issue a flood watch at this time, but will pass
concerns on to next shift.

With more sunshine on Monday over the forecast area, high temps
should climb into the low to mid 90s most areas, upper 80s NW AR.
The NAM has a pocket of high dewpoints forecast across NE OK
during the afternoon, which appears believable given that S/SW
winds will be blowing air from the central OK heavy rain footprint
from last night. The combination of these dews and the forecast
highs suggests some isolated 105 heat index is possible in spots
tomorrow, especially to the south and west of Tulsa. However,
given spotty and marginal nature of threat, will hold off on heat
headlines for now.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Chance PoPs were maintained near the KS and MO borders for Monday
night into Tuesday. Some storms could traverse the periphery of
the expanding mid-level ridge. Forecast high temps climbing into
the upper 90s across much of the forecast area combined with the
humidity will yield solid advisory level heat across much of the
area. By Wednesday, the mid-level ridge will be firmly in control,
and another day of heat headlines are likely. There is still some
uncertainty regarding the evolution of the upper air pattern for
the latter part of the week. Today`s GFS looks like yesterday`s
EC, showing an upper trough sliding across central part of the
country and an associated front pushing thru the region Thursday.
The EC shows a weaker trough to our north and weak boundary
pushing into the northern areas. Again, will stick with the
blended guidance chance PoPs across the north, but will use some
CONSRaw and CONSMOS to shave some degrees off the high temps near
the KS and MO borders in the Thursday and Friday time frame.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

A mix of MVFR to VFR conditions are found across eastern Oklahoma
and western Arkansas this evening. This trend is set to continue
through tonight and into Monday with showers/storms expected to
impact area sites overnight into Monday morning. IFR conditions
will possible within thunderstorm areas. Conditions begin to improve
Monday afternoon.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  91  74  97 /  50  50  10  10
FSM   71  90  74  99 /  20  40  10  20
MLC   74  95  76  98 /  30  30   0  10
BVO   69  91  69  96 /  60  40  20  20
FYV   67  88  70  94 /  40  70  20  30
BYV   66  88  69  91 /  60  80  20  40
MKO   71  90  74  96 /  40  50  10  10
MIO   68  89  70  92 /  70  70  30  40
F10   72  93  74  97 /  40  40  10  10
HHW   73  96  76  99 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...10