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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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627 FXUS64 KTSA 112323 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 623 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Thru Monday) Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 High PWAT air (2"+), warm advection and training storms did indeed yield an area of heavy rainfall this morning across northeast Oklahoma into a small portion of NW AR. Rainfall estimates between 4 and 8 inches occurred within a west to east zone between Tulsa and Ft Smith. There were reports of flooding in Muskogee. Current surface analysis shows an extensive area of rain/cloud cooled air across central into eastern OK and western AR, with an outflow boundary extending W/NW into far W/SW OK. Elevated storms persist in the transition zone between the 2 airmasses from central into eastern OK, but the current thinking is that most of this activity should wane by 00Z. An isolated surface based storm or two could develop closer to the outflow over western OK, but chances are very low that any of this activity would affect eastern OK. The current forecast reasoning remains unchanged for the most part. We should see another round of warm advection storms, displaced northeast of last night`s activity, near the nose of a developing SWrly LLJ near or after midnight. Activity will get going over NE OK and then into the SE KS/SW MO/NW AR vicinity near or after daybreak Monday as the better forcing shifts toward that region. Similar to last night, storms could train over the same areas as the forcing orientation and storm motion are near parallel. Pockets of locally heavy rainfall could lead to some flooding with high PWATs (2"+) in place. Confidence isn`t high enough that heavy rain will track over last night`s heavy rain footprint to issue a flood watch at this time, but will pass concerns on to next shift. With more sunshine on Monday over the forecast area, high temps should climb into the low to mid 90s most areas, upper 80s NW AR. The NAM has a pocket of high dewpoints forecast across NE OK during the afternoon, which appears believable given that S/SW winds will be blowing air from the central OK heavy rain footprint from last night. The combination of these dews and the forecast highs suggests some isolated 105 heat index is possible in spots tomorrow, especially to the south and west of Tulsa. However, given spotty and marginal nature of threat, will hold off on heat headlines for now. Lacy && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Chance PoPs were maintained near the KS and MO borders for Monday night into Tuesday. Some storms could traverse the periphery of the expanding mid-level ridge. Forecast high temps climbing into the upper 90s across much of the forecast area combined with the humidity will yield solid advisory level heat across much of the area. By Wednesday, the mid-level ridge will be firmly in control, and another day of heat headlines are likely. There is still some uncertainty regarding the evolution of the upper air pattern for the latter part of the week. Today`s GFS looks like yesterday`s EC, showing an upper trough sliding across central part of the country and an associated front pushing thru the region Thursday. The EC shows a weaker trough to our north and weak boundary pushing into the northern areas. Again, will stick with the blended guidance chance PoPs across the north, but will use some CONSRaw and CONSMOS to shave some degrees off the high temps near the KS and MO borders in the Thursday and Friday time frame. Lacy && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 620 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 A mix of MVFR to VFR conditions are found across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas this evening. This trend is set to continue through tonight and into Monday with showers/storms expected to impact area sites overnight into Monday morning. IFR conditions will possible within thunderstorm areas. Conditions begin to improve Monday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 72 91 74 97 / 50 50 10 10 FSM 71 90 74 99 / 20 40 10 20 MLC 74 95 76 98 / 30 30 0 10 BVO 69 91 69 96 / 60 40 20 20 FYV 67 88 70 94 / 40 70 20 30 BYV 66 88 69 91 / 60 80 20 40 MKO 71 90 74 96 / 40 50 10 10 MIO 68 89 70 92 / 70 70 30 40 F10 72 93 74 97 / 40 40 10 10 HHW 73 96 76 99 / 10 10 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...10