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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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249 FXUS64 KTSA 161127 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 627 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Residual showers and thunderstorms continue to push southeastward across portions of southeast OK early this morning. This activity is being fueled by modest low-level WAA/low-level jet overrunning an outflow boundary/cold pool from a complex of storms that rolled through parts of northeast OK earlier in the evening. These elevated storms should dissipate over the next hour or so as the boundary layer should become more stable. The main focus for today will be on the dangerous heat and humidity that will plague much of eastern OK and northwest AR this afternoon. Potent mid/upper-level ridging over the Desert Southwest will further intensify and will begin to expand across the Southern Plains through the day. Daytime high temperatures will soar into the upper 90s and lower 100s in most locations this afternoon. Meanwhile, a plethora of low-level moisture and WAA will be in place across the region ahead of a quasi-stationary surface boundary along/near the OK/KS border. This frontal boundary is expected to remain nearly stationary over the next 24 hours or so. Widespread dewpoints in the 70s will be common through much of the daytime today. As a result, heat indices and wet bulb globe temperatures are forecast to be exceptionally high today. With that said, was confident enough to upgrade all of southeast OK to an Excessive Heat Warning today. The rest of the heat headlines from the previous forecast remains unchanged. The Storm Prediction Center has contoured a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms in their 06z update of their Day 1 Convective Outlook for portions of the forecast area today, mainly north of the I-40 corridor, with a Marginal Risk surrounding the Slight Risk. Although the majority of the severe threat is expected to occur this evening/tonight, isolated thunderstorms are anticipated to develop just after peak heating late this afternoon, with storm initiation focused near or just ahead of the stationary frontal boundary. Steep low/mid-lapse rates underneath a corridor of MLCAPE values exceeding 2500+ J/kg will result in storms with mature updrafts producing large hail and damaging wind gusts which may continue into the evening hours. Mejia && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage this evening/tonight as a mid-level shortwave trough slides off the High Plains and rides the northern fringe of the upper ridge and approaches the forecast area. Bulk shear (0-1km & 0-6km) will rapidly increase as the wave approaches. Steep low- level lapse rates from earlier in the day will remain in place through the evening. As a modest low-level jet develops after sunset, storms should grow upscale, with an MCS forecast to develop and move across portions of the forecast area late tonight and possibly through the overnight hours. Large hail and strong damaging wind gusts will be the main threats with the convection. With exceptionally high DCAPE values produced by CAMs, would not be surprised if a few storms produced wind gusts in excess of 70 mph. PoPs may need to be adjusted through the day today as updated short-range models/CAMs get a better grasp of the setup this evening/tonight. In addition to the severe threat, moderate to heavy rain may accompany the storms. Heavier storms/stronger updrafts will be capable of producing minor flooding and perhaps isolated flash flooding. Hot and humid weather will persist on Saturday as the aforementioned stationary surface frontal boundary begins to slide southward some during the daytime on Saturday. Guidance shows the frontal boundary pushing south of I-40 by Sunday morning where it seems to stall again in far southeast OK by Sunday afternoon/evening. Nevertheless, additional heat headlines look to be needed both on Saturday and again on Sunday for portions of the forecast area. The frontal boundary will gradually sag south of the Red River by Monday, with widespread unseasonably cooler temperatures through at least the first half of next week. Despite the strong ridge over the Southern Plains this weekend (before retrograding westward early-mid part of next week), guidance suggests almost a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms as the forecast area remains in a north-northwest flow/deformation zone aloft, with ridging to the west and and deepening trough to the east of the area. For now, kept the conservative NBM solution for PoPs. These PoPs will likely need to be adjusted in the upcoming days. Mejia && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 626 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the day today. Scattered thunderstorms will become more likely this evening into the early part of the overnight hours, with ceiling and visibility reductions expected in storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 99 76 98 75 / 10 30 0 10 FSM 101 77 100 78 / 10 20 0 10 MLC 100 76 102 76 / 10 10 0 0 BVO 98 71 97 70 / 20 40 0 10 FYV 97 72 96 72 / 10 50 10 10 BYV 97 70 95 69 / 10 50 10 10 MKO 98 75 99 75 / 10 20 0 10 MIO 97 70 95 70 / 10 70 10 10 F10 99 74 101 74 / 10 10 0 10 HHW 102 77 102 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054>059-062-063-068-069. Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-060-061-064>067-070>076. AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011. Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...05