571
FXUS64 KTSA 120526
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1226 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 931 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Scattered showers are starting to develop across portions of
north-central Oklahoma this evening. Showers and thunderstorms
will likely continue to increase in coverage overnight across
northeast Oklahoma as strong 40 knot southwesterly low level jet
develops. PWATs in the 2.00-2.25 inch range will likely support
torrential rainfall in the stronger activity with the potential
for back building/training storms.

Still some uncertainty regarding exactly where the heavy rainfall
axis develops, but latest HRRR runs, including 00Z NAM suggest
highest totals may occur slightly north of where the heavier rain
occurred this morning. Could still see some overlap across portions
of east-central Oklahoma where flash flood guidance remains low.
Regardless, increasing chances for localized, but potentially
significant, flash flooding late tonight into Monday morning
across portions of aforementioned area.

Given the highest rainfall amounts may be confined to a few counties,
opted to not issue a flash flood watch at this time. Did increase
QPF amounts north and east of Tulsa given latest model trends.

Updated forecast out shortly.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Chance PoPs were maintained near the KS and MO borders for Monday
night into Tuesday. Some storms could traverse the periphery of
the expanding mid-level ridge. Forecast high temps climbing into
the upper 90s across much of the forecast area combined with the
humidity will yield solid advisory level heat across much of the
area. By Wednesday, the mid-level ridge will be firmly in control,
and another day of heat headlines are likely. There is still some
uncertainty regarding the evolution of the upper air pattern for
the latter part of the week. Today`s GFS looks like yesterday`s
EC, showing an upper trough sliding across central part of the
country and an associated front pushing thru the region Thursday.
The EC shows a weaker trough to our north and weak boundary
pushing into the northern areas. Again, will stick with the
blended guidance chance PoPs across the north, but will use some
CONSRaw and CONSMOS to shave some degrees off the high temps near
the KS and MO borders in the Thursday and Friday time frame.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

RA/TSRA chances will begin increasing across the NE OK after 06z
and AR sites between 09-12z, Storm chances to end around 15z
across the NE OK sites and around 18z across the AR sites. Low
MVFR cigs and MVFR vsbys in periods of thunder can be expected
during this time, with MVFR cigs improving to VFR categories
during the morning at the NE OK sites, and by mid afternoon at the
AR sites. Coverage further south appears limited, so will just
include VCTS at KMLC for several hours this morning.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   91  74  97  78 /  50  10  10   0
FSM   90  74  99  77 /  40  10  20   0
MLC   95  76  98  77 /  30   0  10   0
BVO   91  69  96  74 /  40  20  20   0
FYV   88  70  94  73 /  70  20  30  10
BYV   88  69  91  71 /  80  20  40  10
MKO   90  74  96  75 /  50  10  10   0
MIO   89  70  92  73 /  70  30  40  10
F10   93  74  97  75 /  40  10  10   0
HHW   96  76  99  77 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...23