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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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761 FXUS64 KTSA 131737 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1237 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1026 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 A sub-severe MCS continues to scrape across far northeast OK and may clip portions of far northwest AR over the next few hours. Although a few wind gusts up to 40 mph are possible before exiting the forecast area, storms are expected to remain sub-severe. The main focus for today will continue to be on the excessive heat and humidity across the region. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for much of eastern OK and west-central AR from 1 PM until 9 PM this evening. Cloud cover from this morning`s MCS will scatter out and become mostly sunny/partly cloudy by the afternoon. This should allow temperatures to rapidly rise once this occurs. The biggest uncertainty will be how exactly dewpoint temperatures will respond this afternoon after recent rains. A few locations may approach or even exceed Excessive Heat Warning criteria, especially across western/central portions of the forecast area where current dewpoints are in the mid-upper 70s. An upgrade to an Excessive Heat Warning may be needed for at least a few counties this afternoon if dewpoints remain higher than what guidance suggests. Will leave the current heat headlines as is for now. Mejia && .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 258 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 A thunderstorm complex currently over western/central Kansas will continue to trek east through the night and may brush portions of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this morning into the early afternoon hours. The bulk of the activity is expected to remain north of the area. However, any of the stronger storms that move into the area will be capable of producing locally heavy rains. Surface dew points are expected to be in the mid to upper 70s across a good swath of eastern Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas today due to the recent heavy rains. Thanks to the moisture-laden airmass, the temperatures this afternoon in the mid to upper 90s will feel more like 105 to 109 across much of eastern Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas. Will go ahead and keep the current heat advisory in place for today as is. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Monday) Issued at 258 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Temperatures are forecast to remain above normal for this time of year through the forecast period with heat headlines likely across portions of the area into the weekend. A frontal boundary is expected to move into northern portions of the area Thursday night into Friday bringing low chances of showers/storms of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. More showers/storms may be possible over the weekend as the upper level ridge amplifies to our west and a northwesterly flow aloft develops over the area. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Outflow from a thunderstorm complex that clipped far NE OK and far NW AR earlier this morning briefly shifted winds out of the N/NNE. Latest surface observations show winds are starting to gradually veer back out of the E and should become more SE/SSE in the next few hours. BKN-OVC MVFR ceilings from the storm complex remain draped over the AR terminals at this time, but should lift and scatter out to VFR by 18-19z. Beyond that, VFR is expected to prevail through the rest of the forecast period. Winds will become light and variable overnight tonight, then turn out of the S/SSW by mid-late morning Wednesday. Mejia && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 95 79 98 78 / 10 0 0 0 FSM 96 76 98 77 / 10 10 0 0 MLC 98 77 98 77 / 10 0 0 0 BVO 93 75 98 75 / 30 10 0 10 FYV 92 74 95 74 / 50 10 10 0 BYV 92 72 96 74 / 70 10 10 0 MKO 96 76 97 76 / 10 0 0 0 MIO 91 74 97 76 / 80 10 0 10 F10 97 77 98 76 / 10 0 0 0 HHW 99 77 99 77 / 10 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-054- 059>061-064>067-070>076. AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...67