Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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164 FXUS64 KTSA 130758 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 258 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 258 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 A thunderstorm complex currently over western/central Kansas will continue to trek east through the night and may brush portions of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this morning into the early afternoon hours. The bulk of the activity is expected to remain north of the area. However, any of the stronger storms that move into the area will be capable of producing locally heavy rains. Surface dew points are expected to be in the mid to upper 70s across a good swath of eastern Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas today due to the recent heavy rains. Thanks to the moisture-laden airmass, the temperatures this afternoon in the mid to upper 90s will feel more like 105 to 109 across much of eastern Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas. Will go ahead and keep the current heat advisory in place for today as is. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Monday) Issued at 258 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Temperatures are forecast to remain above normal for this time of year through the forecast period with heat headlines likely across portions of the area into the weekend. A frontal boundary is expected to move into northern portions of the area Thursday night into Friday bringing low chances of showers/storms of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. More showers/storms may be possible over the weekend as the upper level ridge amplifies to our west and a northwesterly flow aloft develops over the area. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Showers and thunderstorms may brush far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Tuesday morning into early afternoon, with brief reductions in visibility possible within any stronger storms that may impact the far northwest Arkansas sites. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 95 79 98 78 / 30 0 0 0 FSM 96 76 98 77 / 10 10 0 0 MLC 98 77 98 77 / 10 0 0 0 BVO 93 75 98 75 / 50 10 0 10 FYV 92 74 95 74 / 40 10 10 0 BYV 92 72 96 74 / 50 10 10 0 MKO 96 76 97 76 / 20 0 0 0 MIO 91 74 97 76 / 70 10 0 10 F10 97 77 98 76 / 10 0 0 0 HHW 99 77 99 77 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-054-059>061-064>067-070>076. AR...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...05