374
FXUS64 KTSA 140751
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
251 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

The dangerous heat will be top of mind today with heat index
values set to top out in the 110 to 114 degree range across
portions of eastern Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas. The
current heat advisory will be upgraded to an excessive heat
warning for this area. Will keep the heat advisory for the
remaining counties and will add northwest Arkansas to the
advisory as well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

The heat persists on Thursday. However, there will some potential
for limited relief in the form of isolated to scattered showers/storms
Thursday afternoon/evening as a weak frontal boundary moves into northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. A few of these storms could be strong
to severe with damaging winds the main concern.

Above normal temperatures are set to continue into early next week as
an upper level ridge amplifies over the Plains. There could be some
shower/storm activity over the weekend on the eastern periphery of the
building high. Heat headlines will likely be needed across portions of
the area through the weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. South
winds will gust to near 20 knots at times Wednesday at the
northeast Oklahoma sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   99  79  98  75 /   0  10  20  30
FSM   99  77  99  78 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   98  78  98  77 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   99  76  97  71 /   0  10  30  30
FYV   94  75  96  74 /  10   0  10  30
BYV   95  75  97  73 /  10   0  20  30
MKO   96  77  97  75 /   0   0  10  20
MIO   96  75  97  71 /  10  10  30  30
F10   98  78  99  75 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   99  77  99  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ049-053-057-058-062-063-068-069-073-075.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ054>056-059>061-064>067-070>072-074-076.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ001-002-010-011.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...05