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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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765 FXUS64 KTSA 150757 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 257 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today into Tonight) Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Another day of dangerous heat is on tap for eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas today with heat index values topping out in the 105 to 115 degree range across much of the area this afternoon. Will leave the current heat headlines as is for now. There will be a couple of opportunities for isolated to scattered showers/storms today. The first chance will be this morning across northeast Oklahoma as a thunderstorm complex moving across southeast Kansas may clip the area. The next chance of showers and storms will arrive later this afternoon/evening as a weak frontal boundary moves toward the Kansas/Oklahoma border and the outflow boundary from the morning storms lingers near the I-44 corridor. A few of these storms could be strong to severe with damaging winds the main concern. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Temperatures at or above normal are expected to continue through the weekend across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas with heat headlines likely for portions of the area. There will be low chances of showers/storms Friday into Saturday as a weak surface front sags through the area. The greatest potential for storms during this time is expected to be north of I-40. The models are trending slightly cooler as we move into next week as the upper level ridge is forecast to retrograde further to the west. This will result in more of a northwesterly flow aloft over the region which could also lead to additional chances of showers/storms. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. A few showers may approach KBVO early this morning, and widely scattered showers and storms may develop near a weak surface boundary by early Thursday evening, potentially impacting the northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas sites. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 98 76 98 76 / 20 30 10 30 FSM 99 78 100 77 / 0 10 10 10 MLC 98 77 100 76 / 10 10 10 10 BVO 99 71 98 71 / 30 30 20 40 FYV 96 74 97 72 / 10 20 20 30 BYV 97 73 98 69 / 20 20 20 40 MKO 97 75 98 75 / 10 20 10 20 MIO 97 71 96 70 / 40 30 20 50 F10 98 75 99 74 / 10 20 10 10 HHW 99 78 101 77 / 0 0 10 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>059-062-063-068-069-073-075. Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ060-061-064>067-070>072-074-076. AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011. Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...05