765
FXUS64 KTSA 150757
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
257 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today into Tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Another day of dangerous heat is on tap for eastern Oklahoma
and western Arkansas today with heat index values topping out
in the 105 to 115 degree range across much of the area this
afternoon. Will leave the current heat headlines as is for now.

There will be a couple of opportunities for isolated to scattered
showers/storms today. The first chance will be this morning across
northeast Oklahoma as a thunderstorm complex moving across southeast
Kansas may clip the area. The next chance of showers and storms will arrive
later this afternoon/evening as a weak frontal boundary moves toward the
Kansas/Oklahoma border and the outflow boundary from the morning
storms lingers near the I-44 corridor. A few of these storms could
be strong to severe with damaging winds the main concern.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Temperatures at or above normal are expected to continue through
the weekend across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas with heat
headlines likely for portions of the area. There will be low chances
of showers/storms Friday into Saturday as a weak surface front sags
through the area. The greatest potential for storms during this time
is expected to be north of I-40.

The models are trending slightly cooler as we move into next week
as the upper level ridge is forecast to retrograde further to the
west. This will result in more of a northwesterly flow aloft over
the region which could also lead to additional chances of showers/storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. A
few showers may approach KBVO early this morning, and widely
scattered showers and storms may develop near a weak surface
boundary by early Thursday evening, potentially impacting the
northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   98  76  98  76 /  20  30  10  30
FSM   99  78 100  77 /   0  10  10  10
MLC   98  77 100  76 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   99  71  98  71 /  30  30  20  40
FYV   96  74  97  72 /  10  20  20  30
BYV   97  73  98  69 /  20  20  20  40
MKO   97  75  98  75 /  10  20  10  20
MIO   97  71  96  70 /  40  30  20  50
F10   98  75  99  74 /  10  20  10  10
HHW   99  78 101  77 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ049-053>059-062-063-068-069-073-075.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ060-061-064>067-070>072-074-076.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ001-002-010-011.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...05