347
FXUS64 KTSA 011643
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1143 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

   - Daily isolated to widely scattered showers and storms
     expected much of the rest of this week with locally heavy
     rains, downburst winds, and lightning being the primary
     hazards.

   - Hot and humid conditions will continue for most of this week
     with heat indices generally 95-103 F across the area. Some
     minor relief will briefly occur on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

A quieter day is in store across the region today as a frontal
boundary has worked its way south of the Red River, taking most of
the storm chances with it for the next couple of days. Surface
high pressure will build in over the region, along with light
northerly winds, bringing somewhat drier air and lower humidity
for this afternoon. High temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s
will be common with heat index values held in check, mostly below
95 degrees, by the lower dewpoint air filtering in behind the
front. A few isolated showers or storms remain possible closer to
the surface boundary along the Red River this afternoon, but
overall coverage should be much less than recent days.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Cooler, slightly below normal, temps look to continue Tonight
into Wednesday with the drier air holding heat indices down once
again. Most of the area is expected to remain dry on WEdnesday as
well, with a few isolated afternoon storms possible again mainly
near the Red River where deeper moisture resides. The surface
high is progged to shift eastward later Wednesday with upper
height subsequently rising over the Plains. Temperatures will
likely tick upward for the latter half of the workweek into the
holiday weekend with an uptick in the humidity level also likely
given the return of southerly flow over the region. Daily isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorm chances will stay in the forecast
through the period, though the expectation is most places will
remain dry through much of the week and weekend. Heat and humidity
will also lead to heat index values topping out from 100 to 105
degrees areawide.

Guidance signals that the upper ridge builds westward toward the
end of the weekend into early next week with modestly strong
northerly to northwest flow aloft developing over the region.
Various waves moving through the flow could bring higher storm
chances to parts of the area beginning Sunday into the early part
of next week. Trends will continue to be monitored for greater
agreement in this scenario as it evolves. Otherwise, fairly
typical summer weather is in store through much of this forecast.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

VFR conditions should prevail through the period, with patchy MVFR
visibilities around sunrise tomorrow in northwest Arkansas.
Existing FEW to SCT clouds at MVFR heights should remain at that
coverage, with lower clouds diminishing with the loss of daytime
heating. Diurnal lower clouds should again begin to develop mid
to late morning tomorrow. Light winds will prevail, with a general
turn toward more southerly directions tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   88  67  89  70 /   0   0  10   0
FSM   92  71  91  71 /   0   0  10   0
MLC   89  68  89  70 /  10   0  10   0
BVO   88  64  89  66 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   87  64  88  66 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   87  64  88  65 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   88  66  87  69 /   0   0  10   0
MIO   87  64  87  65 /   0   0   0   0
F10   87  66  86  69 /   0   0  10   0
HHW   90  71  90  73 /  20   0  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...22