705
FXUS64 KTSA 150532
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1232 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 920 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

A mid level shortwave was progressing eastward across North
Central Kansas this evening with a trailing surface boundary
extending southwest to just north of the Oklahoma Panhandle. An
increasing low level jet over top of the surface boundary
interacting with the shortwave was aiding in the development of a
broken line of convection along the boundary from far Southern
Kansas to far Northwest Missouri.

Through the overnight hours this shortwave is expected to continue
its eastward track into Northeast Missouri...while at the same
time flattening the ridge of high pressure and shifting the high
center southeast into Northern Louisiana/Southern Arkansas. In
response... the surface boundary...which could become more of an
outflow boundary...is progged to move into Northeast Oklahoma late
tonight/early morning Thursday with low end chance PoPs mainly
north of Interstate 44. The greater thunder potential should
remain north of the CWA...closer to the shortwave and underneath
the low level jet core. Gusty winds and lightning look to be the
main threats with this activity tonight.

Across the rest of the CWA...mostly clear to partly cloudy skies
and low temps again in the 70s are forecast. Thus...for the
evening update...have added adjustments to PoPs/timing and wind
grids based on the mentioned above. The rest of the forecast looks
to be handling well at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Corridor of showers and storms are likely to be ongoing near or
across portions of NE OK tomorrow morning. This convection should
wane by early afternoon though may not completely dissipate.
Outflow boundary from the overnight convection and/or a weak cold
front will move further south to near the Interstate 44 corridor
by late afternoon. Pooled moisture along the boundary will mark a
zone of stronger instability and the scenario of persistent weak
convection gradually intensifying or renewed storm development
along the boundary will have access to the stronger instability
and improving wind fields aloft. A window for more organized
storms and associated severe potential will exist from mid
afternoon through mid/late evening with fcst soundings supporting
localized damaging downburst winds possible.

Dangerous heat will continue on Thursday with any thunderstorm
influences likely too late in the day to inhibit another
widespread footprint of high heat index / wet bulb globe temps.

Hot and humid conditions likely continue into Friday with
potential for storms from late evening into overnight hours as
another wave passes on the periphery of the upper ridge. The
Friday night into early Saturday window will need to be monitored
for heavy rain potential as several model members do suggest
isolated heavy totals.

The upper ridge may slowly become centered more westward over the
weekend with temps nearer seasonal normals, however expect hot
afternoon heat index values to continue through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. A
few showers may approach KBVO early this morning, and widely
scattered showers and storms may develop near a weak surface
boundary by early Thursday evening, potentially impacting the
northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   98  76  98  76 /  20  20  10  30
FSM   99  78 100  77 /   0  10  10  10
MLC   98  77 100  76 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   98  71  98  71 /  30  30  10  30
FYV   96  74  97  72 /  10  20  20  30
BYV   97  73  98  69 /  20  20  20  40
MKO   97  75  98  75 /  10  20  10  20
MIO   97  71  96  70 /  40  30  10  50
F10   98  75  99  74 /  10  20  10  10
HHW   99  78 101  77 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ049-053>059-062-063-068-069-073-075.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ060-061-064>067-070>072-074-076.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ001-002-010-011.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...05