572
FXUS64 KTSA 170446
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1146 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1022 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Another night of widely scattered storms have developed across
northeast OK and northwest AR. Radar imagery from KINX shows a
distinct outflow boundary drifting S/SW from the main cluster of
thunderstorms. At the moment, the environment remains very
favorable of downburst wind gusts and large hail from the
strongest updrafts. The severe threat is forecast to persist
through at least the next couple of hours before nocturnal
cooling increases convective inhibition. While this may tame the
severe threat some, scattered to numerous thunderstorms will
likely persist beyond midnight as the cluster of thunderstorms
continues to shift southward towards the I-40 corridor/west-
central AR. Recent runs of the RAP and HRRR suggest additional
thunderstorm development behind this cluster after midnight,
mainly affecting northwest AR. Still some uncertainty with how
strong these storms will be beyond midnight. Additionally, PWATs
have increase to around 2 inches in the region. Minor flooding and
isolated flash flooding will be possible through the night,
especially in areas where training sets up as well locations
where heavy rain has already fallen over the last few hours.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect for far
northeast OK and far northwest AR through 11 PM and for west-
central AR through 2 AM.

Mejia

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Small cluster of storms keeps chugging along across southern
Kansas this afternoon near a frontal boundary. A very unstable and
weakly capped airmass resides south of the boundary over much of
eastern OK, with DCAPES >1500. Present trends continue to defy CAM
solutions and imply a threat of this cluster eventually moving
into far northeast OK later this afternoon, posing at least a low
threat of damaging wind gusts given the environment south of the
boundary.

Otherwise, dangerously hot and humid conditions persist this
afternoon with heat warnings/advisories continuing through 9 PM.
Still expected re-juivenated convection later this evening north
of the boundary with greatest concentration of storms across NE OK
and NW AR this evening and overnight. Some storm organization is
likely with relatively strong deep layer flow for August, with
damaging wind gusts the primary hazard, but some large hail
potential as well at least initially. Pockets of heavy rainfall
also appear likely, which could lead to localized flooding
potential if heavier rain rates can coincide with locations that
have seen heavier totals as of late.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Expectation is for convection to be ongoing across mainly NW AR
early Saturday morning. The brunt of organized activity may have
mostly shifted east and south by 12z or shortly thereafter, some
continued rejuvenation of storms remains possible through the
morning within the frontal zone draped across extreme NE OK and NW
AR. The severe threat should be lower at this point, but the
heavy rain threat will continue. Outside of the influence of any
morning convection, dangerously hot and humid conditions are once
again expected Saturday, and additional heat warnings and
advisories have been issued. Notable exception may be the above
mentioned area of NW AR and extreme NE OK where residual cloud
cover may hamper this to some degree. FOr the time being have
kept NW AR out of any headlines, and went with an advisory for the
AR River valley area as confidence is lower in those areas.

Some additional thunderstorm chances continue Late Saturday into
Sunday, primarily across NW AR. Hot weather will continue with
additional headlines likely needed for some areas. Overall the
pattern favors a gradual trend toward not as hot and humid weather
from Monday onward and, whole the forecast does not explicitly
mention any storm chances next week, we do remain on the periphery
of upper ridge with a NNW flow aloft, raising some uncertainty in
keeping a dry forecast. IN any case we will get a break from the
excessive heat, first across NW AR/NE OK, then most everywhere by
mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Well defined cold pool has spread across NE OK / NW AR from
evening storms. This boundary may be sufficient for the S-SW
overnight low level jet to maintain scattered storm development
and forecast will mention potential thunderstorm impacts for all
terminals. Precip cover expected to wane by mid to late morning
with VFR conditions then prevailing. Storms may again develop
Saturday night but current guidance suggests this potential is
more likely just beyond this forecast valid time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  98  76  96 /  60  10  10  10
FSM   78  97  77  99 /  60  20  10  10
MLC   78  99  76 101 /  20  10   0  10
BVO   71  97  71  94 /  80  20  10  10
FYV   72  94  71  94 /  80  40  10  20
BYV   70  94  70  92 /  80  50  20  20
MKO   75  96  75  96 /  50  20  10  10
MIO   70  94  70  91 /  80  30  10  10
F10   75  99  74  98 /  30  10   0  10
HHW   78 102  77 104 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ054>059-063-
     068-072.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ049-
     053-060>062-064>067-070-071-073>076.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...07