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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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572 FXUS64 KTSA 170446 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1146 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1022 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Another night of widely scattered storms have developed across northeast OK and northwest AR. Radar imagery from KINX shows a distinct outflow boundary drifting S/SW from the main cluster of thunderstorms. At the moment, the environment remains very favorable of downburst wind gusts and large hail from the strongest updrafts. The severe threat is forecast to persist through at least the next couple of hours before nocturnal cooling increases convective inhibition. While this may tame the severe threat some, scattered to numerous thunderstorms will likely persist beyond midnight as the cluster of thunderstorms continues to shift southward towards the I-40 corridor/west- central AR. Recent runs of the RAP and HRRR suggest additional thunderstorm development behind this cluster after midnight, mainly affecting northwest AR. Still some uncertainty with how strong these storms will be beyond midnight. Additionally, PWATs have increase to around 2 inches in the region. Minor flooding and isolated flash flooding will be possible through the night, especially in areas where training sets up as well locations where heavy rain has already fallen over the last few hours. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect for far northeast OK and far northwest AR through 11 PM and for west- central AR through 2 AM. Mejia && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Small cluster of storms keeps chugging along across southern Kansas this afternoon near a frontal boundary. A very unstable and weakly capped airmass resides south of the boundary over much of eastern OK, with DCAPES >1500. Present trends continue to defy CAM solutions and imply a threat of this cluster eventually moving into far northeast OK later this afternoon, posing at least a low threat of damaging wind gusts given the environment south of the boundary. Otherwise, dangerously hot and humid conditions persist this afternoon with heat warnings/advisories continuing through 9 PM. Still expected re-juivenated convection later this evening north of the boundary with greatest concentration of storms across NE OK and NW AR this evening and overnight. Some storm organization is likely with relatively strong deep layer flow for August, with damaging wind gusts the primary hazard, but some large hail potential as well at least initially. Pockets of heavy rainfall also appear likely, which could lead to localized flooding potential if heavier rain rates can coincide with locations that have seen heavier totals as of late. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Friday) Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Expectation is for convection to be ongoing across mainly NW AR early Saturday morning. The brunt of organized activity may have mostly shifted east and south by 12z or shortly thereafter, some continued rejuvenation of storms remains possible through the morning within the frontal zone draped across extreme NE OK and NW AR. The severe threat should be lower at this point, but the heavy rain threat will continue. Outside of the influence of any morning convection, dangerously hot and humid conditions are once again expected Saturday, and additional heat warnings and advisories have been issued. Notable exception may be the above mentioned area of NW AR and extreme NE OK where residual cloud cover may hamper this to some degree. FOr the time being have kept NW AR out of any headlines, and went with an advisory for the AR River valley area as confidence is lower in those areas. Some additional thunderstorm chances continue Late Saturday into Sunday, primarily across NW AR. Hot weather will continue with additional headlines likely needed for some areas. Overall the pattern favors a gradual trend toward not as hot and humid weather from Monday onward and, whole the forecast does not explicitly mention any storm chances next week, we do remain on the periphery of upper ridge with a NNW flow aloft, raising some uncertainty in keeping a dry forecast. IN any case we will get a break from the excessive heat, first across NW AR/NE OK, then most everywhere by mid-week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1142 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Well defined cold pool has spread across NE OK / NW AR from evening storms. This boundary may be sufficient for the S-SW overnight low level jet to maintain scattered storm development and forecast will mention potential thunderstorm impacts for all terminals. Precip cover expected to wane by mid to late morning with VFR conditions then prevailing. Storms may again develop Saturday night but current guidance suggests this potential is more likely just beyond this forecast valid time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 76 98 76 96 / 60 10 10 10 FSM 78 97 77 99 / 60 20 10 10 MLC 78 99 76 101 / 20 10 0 10 BVO 71 97 71 94 / 80 20 10 10 FYV 72 94 71 94 / 80 40 10 20 BYV 70 94 70 92 / 80 50 20 20 MKO 75 96 75 96 / 50 20 10 10 MIO 70 94 70 91 / 80 30 10 10 F10 75 99 74 98 / 30 10 0 10 HHW 78 102 77 104 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ054>059-063- 068-072. Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ049- 053-060>062-064>067-070-071-073>076. AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ019-020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...07