069
FXUS64 KTSA 121721
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1221 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1035 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Isolated showers (and occasionally a lightning strike or two)
continue this morning across portions of E OK and NW AR. Coverage
has trended downward over the last couple of hours and would
expect this to continue through the late morning. Opted to keep
slight chance PoPs in place until early afternoon, mainly across
SE OK & NW AR. Additional low shower/ storm chances are introduced
for late afternoon/ evening (Osage/Pawnee/Washington counties) as
HREF continues to hint at diurnally driven development. That
being said, the latest runs tend to keep better chances west of
our area. Otherwise, the forecast appears to be on track with no
significant deviations needed at this time. Highs top out in the
upper 90s for NE OK and in the lower-mid 90s for SE OK/ NW AR
under mostly clear skies (aside from any shower/storm activity).

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Weak upper wave continues to drift southeastward this morning
across eastern Kansas/western Missouri. A cluster of strong to
severe thunderstorms has been persistent overnight near the nose
of the low level jet/mid level trough axis intersection across
southeast Kansas and into southwest Missouri. a few storms have
developed into far northeast Oklahoma as well, but less favorable
instability and shear has allowed these storms to stay relatively
benign in our forecast area. This activity will slowly drift
eastward into northwest Arkansas through the rest of the morning,
and gradually weaken later this morning with the diminishing low
level jet after sunrise. Brief heavy downpours and some gusty
winds will be the main threats in our area with any storms this
morning. The rest of the area will remain quiet, with a mild start
to the day with temperatures starting out in the mid to upper 70s
for most locations. The warm up will continue today as the
expanding western CONUS ridge hedges further east. The heat and
humidity will lead to most locations seeing heat index values in
excess of 100 degrees this afternoon. Some locations could push
Heat Advisory criteria, but will leave for the next shift to
monitor the trends if one is needed later today. A few spotty
showers/storms will be possible later this afternoon across parts
of northern Oklahoma as another weak disturbance moves across the
region and the deeply mixed boundary layer will be uncapped by
late afternoon. Again, brief heavy downpours and some strong wind
gusts will be the main concern if any storms develop.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

The main theme for much of the extended period will be the
building heat across the region this weekend into early next week
as the upper level ridge becomes planted over the area. A few
storms could graze far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas
again late Friday night into Saturday as the area remains on the
periphery of the ridge and several weak disturbances move through
the flow. By later Saturday through the middle of next week
however, hot and dry will be the story under the ridge. Heat
headlines will likely be needed in the coming days. Relief could
arrive by the middle part of next week as the upper ridge begins
to weaken and shift southward, allowing a boundary to drop into
the region. This would bring more rain chances along with cooler
temperatures for the latter part of next week.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

VFR Conditions expected for all TAF sites through the period. Some
showers may briefly affect NW AR sites this afternoon, but any
impacts will should be brief. There is also a very low chance of a
shower near BVO late this afternoon/ evening, but confidence
remains too low to mention in TAF. Additionally, LLWS may develop
near BVO as a LLJ intensifies overnight. Otherwise, breezy sfc
winds this afternoon become light overnight with FEW to SCT
mid/high clouds through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  98  78  99 /  10  10   0  10
FSM   74  97  75  97 /   0  10   0  10
MLC   74  95  73  96 /   0  10   0  10
BVO   74  97  73  99 /  10  20   0  10
FYV   72  94  71  96 /   0  20   0  10
BYV   72  94  71  96 /   0  20   0  10
MKO   74  96  74  96 /   0  20   0  10
MIO   74  95  74  97 /  10  20   0  10
F10   74  96  73  97 /   0  10   0  10
HHW   72  94  73  93 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...43