115
FXUS64 KTSA 141706
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1206 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1043 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Both temps and dew points running a bit higher compared to
yesterday, which supports the need for a heat advisory this
afternoon. Expectation remains for dew points to mix out slightly
this afternoon keeping HI more in the 105-108 range. This should
also keep areas S of I-40 in eastern OK a bit below criteria. FOr
right now the going forecast appears good.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

The heat continues into early next week with highs expected to
range from the upper 90s to 103 across the region. Additional heat
headlines will likely be needed Monday and Tuesday as well. Dry
weather will dominate during this timeframe under influence of
the ridge.

A pattern shift remains on the horizon beginning Tuesday night
into Wednesday. The upper ridge is progged to shift back westward
by Wednesday, allowing modest northwesterly flow aloft to develop
over much of Central and Southern Plains. This will allow a
frontal boundary to drop into the area Tuesday night/Wednesday,
with shower and thunderstorm chances accompanying the boundary.
Better storm/heavy rain chances are shaping up to reside across
the eastern half of the forecast area, where better lift is
forecast to be associated with the mid level trough axis.
Widespread rain chances are still expected over much of the CWA
through Thursday though, along with the arrival of below normal
temperatures. the boundary looks to clear southeast Oklahoma on
Thursday, but the trough axis will remain nearby, so PoPs will
stay over the area on Friday as well. Ensemble guidance remains in
good agreement that central and eastern CONUS troughing will last
through the rest of the forecast period, meaning cooler
temperatures and periodic rain chances will last into next
weekend.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   99  80 102  80 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   98  77 100  78 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   96  77  98  78 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   99  75 102  77 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   95  75  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   96  75  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   96  77  99  77 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   96  77  99  78 /   0   0   0   0
F10   96  77 100  78 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   94  75  96  75 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054>062-064-066-
     067-070>072-074.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...14