796
FXUS63 KTOP 150830
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
330 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered storms possible (15-25% chance) this
  afternoon and evening across eastern Kansas. Some storms could
  be strong to severe.

- Seasonal temperatures with periodic chances for showers and
  storms Friday into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Several embedded perturbations in the quasi-zonal flow are noted
passing through the Central Plains this morning. Convection
continues to shift east and wane in intensity and will exit the area
within the next couple of hours. The next wave of energy passes
through later this morning into the evening as a surface front
slides into the area. Ahead of this boundary, temperatures warm into
the low to mid 90s this afternoon with dewpoints remaining in the
low 70s across eastern Kansas, leading to heat indices of 100-104
degrees for an hour or two hour this afternoon. Given these heat
indices will be brief and limited in scope, have opted not to issue
a heat advisory.

The best forcing from the passing wave resides north of the local
area, but there could still be sufficient ascent for isolated to
scattered thunderstorms to develop. Destabilization through the day
will lead to 1500-3000 J/kg of instability with elongated, albeit
straight, hodographs supporting some strong to severe storms capable
of producing damaging wind gusts and large hail. Uncertainty remains
in coverage of storms with some CAMs showing little to no storms
across the area. The best chances will be across eastern Kansas
where the higher moisture content resides.

Upper-level flow becomes northwesterly Friday as the CWA becomes
sandwiched between a trough over the Great Lakes and ridge across
the southwest US. A couple waves of energy pass pass through on
Friday, increasing chances for showers and storms Friday afternoon
and evening. The environment would be favorable for some stronger
storms, but details remain uncertain this far out.

The pattern turns a bit drier this weekend into next week, although
a few passing waves and the proximity of a baroclinic zone to our
south and west bring low chances for showers and storms.
Temperatures remain right around climatological normals for this
time of year in the upper 80s to low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

VFR conditions outside of any TS that impact KTOP/KFOE over the
next couple of hours. Light south-southwest winds become
westerly this afternoon before going light and variable tonight.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Flanagan