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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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796 FXUS63 KTOP 150830 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 330 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered storms possible (15-25% chance) this afternoon and evening across eastern Kansas. Some storms could be strong to severe. - Seasonal temperatures with periodic chances for showers and storms Friday into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Several embedded perturbations in the quasi-zonal flow are noted passing through the Central Plains this morning. Convection continues to shift east and wane in intensity and will exit the area within the next couple of hours. The next wave of energy passes through later this morning into the evening as a surface front slides into the area. Ahead of this boundary, temperatures warm into the low to mid 90s this afternoon with dewpoints remaining in the low 70s across eastern Kansas, leading to heat indices of 100-104 degrees for an hour or two hour this afternoon. Given these heat indices will be brief and limited in scope, have opted not to issue a heat advisory. The best forcing from the passing wave resides north of the local area, but there could still be sufficient ascent for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop. Destabilization through the day will lead to 1500-3000 J/kg of instability with elongated, albeit straight, hodographs supporting some strong to severe storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and large hail. Uncertainty remains in coverage of storms with some CAMs showing little to no storms across the area. The best chances will be across eastern Kansas where the higher moisture content resides. Upper-level flow becomes northwesterly Friday as the CWA becomes sandwiched between a trough over the Great Lakes and ridge across the southwest US. A couple waves of energy pass pass through on Friday, increasing chances for showers and storms Friday afternoon and evening. The environment would be favorable for some stronger storms, but details remain uncertain this far out. The pattern turns a bit drier this weekend into next week, although a few passing waves and the proximity of a baroclinic zone to our south and west bring low chances for showers and storms. Temperatures remain right around climatological normals for this time of year in the upper 80s to low 90s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 VFR conditions outside of any TS that impact KTOP/KFOE over the next couple of hours. Light south-southwest winds become westerly this afternoon before going light and variable tonight. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Flanagan AVIATION...Flanagan