037
FXUS63 KTOP 160517
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1217 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot conditions continue into this evening with heat indices of
  105-110 degrees. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through
  8PM.

- Storm chances (20-30%) increase tonight into Tuesday morning
  including the potential for a few strong to severe storms.

- Additional storms, some strong to severe, could impact the area
  Tuesday evening and night.

- Much cooler Wednesday into the weekend with highs in the 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

The persistent upper ridge across the Desert Southwest has
built slightly eastward through the day with several waves noted
rounding the apex of the ridge. The 12z TOP sounding showed
850mb temperatures near 27 degrees C with a subtle increase of a
degree or two through the day. This results in another very hot
and humid day with heat indices in the 100-110 degree range.
The Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8PM this evening.

A surface cold front/trough currently draped from Wisconsin into
northwest Kansas will be shunted south this evening and overnight by
a perturbation rounding the ridge. Ascent along the boundary and
from the passing wave is expected to be sufficient for at least
scattered convective development, although CAMs vary on the coverage
of storms. The HRRR depicts the most widespread coverage of
precipitation while others show little to no convection. Effective
shear of 20-25kts along with plentiful elevated instability would
support some strong to severe storms capable of producing damaging
wind gusts and large hail. Any storms exit the area by mid-morning
Tuesday.

A cooler airmass will be in place Tuesday behind the front with
850mb temperatures cooling to 22-24 degrees C. However, dewpoints
remain in the upper 60s to mid 70s, creating another hot, but not as
oppressive, day. Heat index values will reach the upper 90s to near
100 degrees along and south of Interstate 70 during the afternoon.
Convection could develop along and north of the first cold front
that stalls across southeast Kansas as CIN erodes during the
afternoon. Inverted-V soundings would support a damaging wind gust
threat with these storms, although confidence in development is low.

Better chances for storms (30-50%) come Tuesday evening and
overnight as a secondary cold front and shortwave swing through the
area. These storms could be strong to severe with models showing
elongated and straight hodographs combined with MUCAPE of 1000-2000
J/kg. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the main hazards with
these storms. PWATs around 2" could lead to locally heavy rainfall
as well.

A drier and cooler Canadian airmass builds in for Wednesday,
bringing welcome relief from the heat with highs in the 80s and low
in the 60s through the weekend. Precipitation chances increase this
weekend as an upper trough dives south across the central CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

VFR at terminals with focus being on the passing FROPA and
increasing scattered TSRA developing over western KS, reaching
terminals aft 10Z. Maintained the TEMPO mention, even though
latest guidance is trending less in coverage of storms and may
be slightly further north of sites as well. Winds veer to the
northeast aft 15Z around 10 kts through the afternoon. Models
hint at the possibility for isolated TSRA redeveloping aft 22Z
near KTOP/KFOE. Will monitor trends and consider mentioning at
next issuance.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Prieto