985
FXUS63 KTOP 170525
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1225 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There are low chances (15-25%) for storms this evening and overnight.
  If storms impact the area, they could produce gusty winds.

- Below normal temperatures settle in Wednesday into early next week
  with precipitation chances returning Friday through the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Quasi-zonal flow resides across the central Plains this afternoon
with a longwave trough over the northern Plains and Great Lakes.
Satellite shows a MCV spinning across southeast Kansas where a
surface boundary currently lies. Clearing skies have allowed
temperatures to warm into the 80s, although dewpoints in the mid 60s
to mid 70s are creating heat indices of 90-100 degrees. Decreasing
CIN across east central Kansas and lift from the MCV has lead to
scattered showers this afternoon, but any showers/storms should
shift east over the next couple of hours with the MCV`s eastward
propagation. A shortwave dives south this evening, generating
convection across central Nebraska. These storms will try to push
into portions of north central Kansas after 9PM, but will run into a
less favorable environment and are expected to weaken before they
reach this far south. If they impact the area, they could produce
gusty winds. Additional convection that develops overnight
should remain primarily to the south of the local area across
southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Low chance (15-25%) PoPs
have been maintained this evening and overnight, but confidence
in storms impacting the area has continued to lower.

Relief from the heat arrives tomorrow as Canadian high pressure
slides south and brings in cooler and drier air. Highs in the 80s
and lows in the 60s are forecast through the weekend. The surface
high pushes east into the Mississippi Valley by Friday as a
shortwave dives south-southeast across the middle of the CONUS and
may become cut-off over the region this weekend. Chances of
precipitation increase with the approach of this wave Friday into
Saturday and may linger into early next week depending on the
evolution of this wave.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

VFR at terminals as sfc high pressure builds in from the north,
keeping northeasterly winds below 10 kts. Few to Sct mid clouds
should temper fog development this morning, despite a few of the
HREF models showing LIFR visibility around 12Z at KTOP. Will
monitor trends and make amendments if needed.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Prieto