087
FXUS63 KTOP 130742
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
242 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat Advisory in effect Today through Monday with daily afternoon
heat indices ranging from 100-109 degrees.

- A cold front next Tuesday brings our next chance for notable
  precipitation with cooler temperatures to follow

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

A quieter morning is ongoing compared to the last few nights as
northeastern Kansas has seen dry conditions with scattered mid-level
clouds advecting in from the northeast. Under mostly clear
conditions, temperatures have been able to cool a bit with temps as
of 2 AM sitting in the upper 70s and low 80s area-wide. Conditions
through sunrise this morning should not change much, but as some
pockets of mid-level energy round the large upper-level ridge over
the 4-corners region, cannot rule out some elevated showers and
perhaps an isolated storm along an area of isentropic ascent. That
said, current conditions and 00z soundings depict a stout EML that
has overspread northeastern KS making it difficult for precipitation
to develop. Around sunrise and a few hours after, guidance moistens
the low levels a bit across far eastern Kansas and western Missouri.
As the LLJ veers and its nose setting up in this area, scattered
showers and storms may develop. Better forcing with this set up
appears to be a bit further east of our area and into Missouri, but
cannot rule out some precipitation spreading west into east-central
KS. Kept some low PoPs to account for this.

Beyond the small precipitation chances this morning, the next
several days will see very hot conditions with minimal chances for
any precip. Mid-level heights increase across the central Plains as
downsloping low-level winds help to mix down very hot air each
afternoon through Monday. Expect air temperatures today through
Monday to reach the upper 90s to mid 100s. Deeper mixing of the BL
across central KS should help to keep temperatures out there a few
degrees higher than in eastern KS with isolated spots possibly
reaching 110 degrees, especially Sunday and Monday. Heat indices
each of these afternoons will range from 100-109 degrees and feeling
a bit more humid across eastern Kansas where the richer moisture
will reside. A Heat Advisory remains in effect today through Monday
across the entire area.

By Tuesday, a cold front will move in from the north, increasing
chances for precipitation and ushering in some relief from the heat.
Guidance has trended a bit quicker with the frontal passage as the
GFS and Euro pushing the boundary into the area early Tuesday. If
this solution remains true, a heat headline will not likely be
needed. There will likely be a spread in high temperatures Tuesday
due to the north to south movement of the front throughout the day
with upper 80s near the KS/NE border and mid to upper 90s south of I-
70. Will continue to monitor for the need for any heat headlines
across areas south of I-70 over the next few forecast periods.
Cooler temperatures continue to filter in behind the boundary with
highs in the 80s expected for the remainder of the week. Surface
ridging sets up over much of the central Plains through Friday,
keeping things dry. Low-level flow returns to the south heading into
the weekend as the next wave moves into the area bringing the next
notable chance for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

VFR conditions will be expected over the TAF period at all
sites. Through the early morning hours today, some LLWS may be
experienced below 2000 ft, but as it is only around 30 knots and
surface winds sustained between 5-10 mph, opted to keep out of
TAFs. The remainder of the TAF will see winds pick up out of the
south/southwest, sustained between 10-20 mph with gusts to 25
mph.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT Monday for
KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-
KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-
KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Griesemer/Teefey