


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
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450 FXUS65 KTFX 071607 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1007 AM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures continue to warm through Wednesday, with most locations rising into the 90s on Tuesday and Wednesday. - Winds increase on Wednesday ahead of Pacific front, with winds gusting in excess of 40 mph along the Rocky Mountain Front. - A brief cool down occurs on Thursday in wake of a re-enforcing cold front, with chances for showers and thunderstorms north of the I-90 corridor. && .UPDATE... With upper level ridging in place across the area, the forecast remains on track. I have removed any lingering mentions of fog from the forecast as the main change this morning. Ludwig && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 458 AM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025/ - Meteorological Overview: Broad upper level ridging will build in over the Northern Rockies through the first half of the work week before being broken down by a shortwave moving across Western Canada from Wednesday through Thursday. While predominately dry conditions are expected today and Tuesday across Southwest through North Central Montana and isolated (light) rain shower or thunderstorm can`t be ruled out. Any shower or thunderstorm on Tuesday, particularly across Southwest Montana (i.e. Dillon Area), would be on the drier side but produce strong and erratic outflow winds due to very dry air in the low to mid- levels of the atmosphere. High temperatures will continue to moderate today across the Northern Rockies with the hottest temperatures of the work week occurring on Tuesday and Wednesday as a strong push of warm air is advected north from over the Desert Southwest/Great Basin. An approaching Pacific front on Wednesday will bring increasing surface winds, particularly along the Rocky Mountain Front, and precipitation chances; with continued gusty winds and showers/storms across all of Southwest through North Central Montana on Thursday in wake of a re-enforcing cold front dropping south from Canada. High temperatures on Thursday will cool significantly from the days prior, with most lower elevations ranging from the mid-60s (Glacier County) to low 80s (valleys of Southwest Montana). Quasi-northwest flow to end the work week and through the weekend will then generally lead to overall dry conditions and slowly moderating temperatures across the Northern Rockies. - Moldan - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Heat on Tuesday and Wednesday : Hottest temperatures on both Tuesday and Wednesday will occur over the plains of Central and North Central Montana, generally for elevations at or below 3500 feet. NBM probabilities with respect to temperatures reaching or exceeding 100 degrees have fallen (slightly, by 5-10%) to generally range from a 5-10% chance for these elevations on Tuesday, with probabilities remaining nearly the same (as compared to 24 hours ago) at between a 20-50% chance on Wednesday. Gusty Winds on Wednesday and Thursday: Deep mixing ahead of and behind an advancing Pacific front on Wednesday will bring gusty west winds to the plains of Central and North Central Montana and the north-south valleys in Southwest Montana. Winds will be especially strong along the Rocky Mountain Front and immediate plains out to Cut Bank, with the latest NBM probabilities for wind gusts in excess of 40 mph ranging from a 90- 95% chance for areas like Cut Bank, Browning, and East Glacier. On Thursday a re-enforcing cold front diving south from Canada will bring another period of strong and gusty winds, this time from the northwest to north. ECMWF EFIs for the day on on Thursday, particularly across Central and portions of north Central Montana (i.e. south of the US Hwy 2 corridor and north of the US Hwy 12 corridor) range from 0.6 to 0.8 with NBM probabilities for wind gusts of 40+ mph generally range between a 40-70% chance. - Moldan && .AVIATION... 07/12Z TAF Period Light rain showers continue to slowly exit to the east of the KHVR and KLWT terminals, with the main impact from any shower being gusty and erratic winds and periods of broken mid-level CIGS. Otherwise upper level ridging will continue to build in over the Northern Rockies over the next 24 hours, with VFR conditions prevailing. Mountain obscuration is not expected during the 0712/0812 TAF period. - Moldan Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 85 54 96 61 / 10 0 0 0 CTB 80 49 90 58 / 10 0 0 0 HLN 87 55 94 58 / 0 0 0 10 BZN 87 51 94 55 / 0 0 0 10 WYS 78 37 83 38 / 0 0 0 20 DLN 85 49 89 50 / 0 0 0 20 HVR 84 54 96 61 / 10 0 0 10 LWT 79 52 89 57 / 10 10 0 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls