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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
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373 FXUS65 KTFX 121504 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 904 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible daily over much of North Central and Southwest MT through the entire work week. Some storms will be capable of producing brief heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts. Otherwise, it will be a warm day today, with temperatures not as hot by the middle of the week. && .UPDATE... A shortwave in the upper-level flow will bring showers and thunderstorms to the Golden Triangle Region (the region from Cut Bank to Havre to Great Falls) and Southwestern Montana this afternoon and evening. Isolated storms in the Golden Triangle Region and from Monida Pass to West Yellowstone will produce severe wind gusts. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Marginal Risk for severe weather(5% chance for severe wind gusts within 25 miles of a point) for those areas. For the update Pops were increased across the Golden Triangle Region today to better match and reflect current radar trends and the latest Hi-res model guidance. Temperatures, dewpoints, and relative humidity were increased across North-central and Central Montana to better reflect current trends and observations. The rest of the forecast is on track. -IG && .AVIATION... 12/12Z TAF Period There`s a low chance for some light showers across Southwest and North Central this morning. Slight chances for showers and thunderstorms arrive again this afternoon. Any stronger shower/storm will be capable of producing gusty winds(up to 30kts) and frequent lightning strikes. There`s also a slight chance for few stronger storms producing brief heavy rainfall and can briefly drop visibilities to MVFR as a result. -Wilson Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024/ Today through Monday...Overall expect a very similar weather pattern over the CWA over the next week. There will be daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. Some of the stronger storms will be able to produce a brief period of heavier rainfall and strong wind gusts. For today, the NAM12 and HREF both prog some stronger storms moving northeast through North Central MT this afternoon. On Tuesday, there is the potential for a few strong storms over the eastern portions of the CWA. Today will likely be the warmest day, with afternoon temperatures just a few degrees cooler the rest of the week. Brusda && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 87 55 84 56 / 10 10 40 50 CTB 82 52 82 53 / 30 20 20 20 HLN 88 56 83 56 / 20 20 60 60 BZN 86 52 81 49 / 20 20 50 60 WYS 76 44 70 39 / 40 40 60 50 DLN 80 50 75 46 / 40 10 60 50 HVR 90 56 89 58 / 20 20 20 40 LWT 84 52 82 52 / 10 10 30 60 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls