373
FXUS65 KTFX 121504
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
904 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024


.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible daily over
much of North Central and Southwest MT through the entire work
week. Some storms will be capable of producing brief heavy
rainfall and strong wind gusts. Otherwise, it will be a warm day
today, with temperatures not as hot by the middle of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...

A shortwave in the upper-level flow will bring showers and
thunderstorms to the Golden Triangle Region (the region from Cut Bank to
Havre to Great Falls) and Southwestern Montana this afternoon and
evening. Isolated storms in the Golden Triangle Region and from
Monida Pass to West Yellowstone will produce severe wind gusts.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Marginal Risk for severe
weather(5% chance for severe wind gusts within 25 miles of a
point) for those areas.

For the update Pops were increased across the Golden Triangle
Region today to better match and reflect current radar trends and
the latest Hi-res model guidance. Temperatures, dewpoints, and
relative humidity were increased across North-central and Central
Montana to better reflect current trends and observations. The
rest of the forecast is on track. -IG

&&

.AVIATION...
12/12Z TAF Period

There`s a low chance for some light showers across Southwest and
North Central this morning. Slight chances for showers and
thunderstorms arrive again this afternoon. Any stronger shower/storm
will be capable of producing gusty winds(up to 30kts) and frequent
lightning strikes. There`s also a slight chance for few stronger
storms producing brief heavy rainfall and can briefly drop
visibilities to MVFR as a result. -Wilson

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 535 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024/
Today through Monday...Overall expect a very similar weather
pattern over the CWA over the next week. There will be daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms. Some of the stronger storms
will be able to produce a brief period of heavier rainfall and
strong wind gusts. For today, the NAM12 and HREF both prog some
stronger storms moving northeast through North Central MT this
afternoon. On Tuesday, there is the potential for a few strong
storms over the eastern portions of the CWA. Today will likely be
the warmest day, with afternoon temperatures just a few degrees
cooler the rest of the week. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  87  55  84  56 /  10  10  40  50
CTB  82  52  82  53 /  30  20  20  20
HLN  88  56  83  56 /  20  20  60  60
BZN  86  52  81  49 /  20  20  50  60
WYS  76  44  70  39 /  40  40  60  50
DLN  80  50  75  46 /  40  10  60  50
HVR  90  56  89  58 /  20  20  20  40
LWT  84  52  82  52 /  10  10  30  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls