913
FXUS65 KTFX 070501
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1101 PM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Drier weather conditions expected over the next few days, save
   for a shower or thunderstorm this evening.
 - Temperatures rise through midweek, with some locations
   potentially seeing 100 a day or two this week.
 - While intense, the heat doesnt last long, as cooler air works
   back into the area on Thursday

&&

.UPDATE...
/Issued 834 PM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025/

Upper level jet max moving east across southern AB/SK this evening
will continue to support some isolated shower/thunderstorm
development to its S/SW across portions of N-central MT through
the rest of this evening. So far, coverage of any convective
development has been very isolated and short-lived, but with upper
level support involved and lingering mid-level instability, the
risk for a few showers and storms will continue through several
hours after midnight. Winds have shifted to the north across much
of north-central MT with the incoming airmass having higher low
level moisture (dewpoints 45-50F), which may allow for some patchy
fog development later tonight in the Glacier/Pondera county
vicinity, where clouds will clear out with lighter winds by early
Monday morning. Hoenisch

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 834 PM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025/

 - Meteorological Overview:

Upper level ridging building over the Western United States early
this week will bring dry and increasingly warm temperatures to
North Central and Southwestern Montana over the next few days.

Monday will see temperatures rise to the mid 80s for most lower
elevation locations, with 90s (and even a few places touching
100) Tuesday and Wednesday. At the moment, I have held off on
heat highlights due to the brief nature of the heat, along with
overnight lows generally in the upper 50s to low 60s. With that
said, we are getting close to needing some Heat Advisories.

As we head towards the second half of the week, an upper level
trough will break down the ridge, bringing markedly cooler
temperatures to the area to close out the week. As the trough
approaches, expect winds to pick up a bit and a few showers and
thunderstorms to move through, though showers and thunderstorms
will be highly dependent on the exact time this trough and surface
cold front move through the area.

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Confidence is fairly high in very warm temperatures for midweek,
with most lower elevation locations having a 90% chance or higher
of seeing 90 Tuesday and Wednesday. The bigger question will be
just how warm we get on Wednesday, as an earlier approach of a
cold front or the development of showers and thunderstorms could
help keep us from reaching the upper end of the forecast range,
which would see some plains cities come close to 100. Should the
storms be able to form Wednesday, there is a chance that some of
them produce strong gusty winds and/or some hail, though this
appears to be a low chance at the moment. Ludwig

&&

.AVIATION...
07/06Z TAF Period

Upper level ridging is beginning to build in across the region. A
few lingering showers will remain through the overnight over the
plains, otherwise benign conditions are forecast to build in for the
remainder of the TAF period. -AM

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  53  85  56  96 /  10   0   0   0
CTB  47  80  51  90 /  30   0   0   0
HLN  54  87  57  94 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  49  87  52  94 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  37  78  38  83 /   0   0  10   0
DLN  47  85  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  50  84  56  96 /  10   0   0   0
LWT  49  79  54  89 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls