![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
900 FXUS65 KTFX 132357 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 550 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Aviation Section Updated. .SYNOPSIS... A fairly unsettled weather pattern looks to continue this week, bringing nearly daily chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms to the area. Best chances for showers and thunderstorms will be this afternoon and evening and again on Friday as more organized weather systems move through the area. && .DISCUSSION... Key Points: -Daily chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms -Temperatures will remain near to slightly below average through the next week Short term (through Friday)... Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected across most of North Central and Southwestern Montana this afternoon as a decaying upper level trough slides through the area. Current atmospheric profiles (as of 1PM) indicate that todays storms will be capable of producing some gusty winds thanks to the dry lower levels, and precipitation production will be fairly efficient, with fairly warm, moist air above the boundary layer, so some heavier rain may fall out of a few of the thunderstorms. For the most part, I dont anticipate this being much of an issue from a flooding standpoint, though we will have to watch the Horse Gulch burn scar, as these storms could produce rainfall sufficient to produce some flooding on this burn scar. Wednesday and Thursday will see slightly cooler temperatures in the wake of this upper level trough as cooler air works its way into the area from the northwest, and a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoons thanks to some leftover instability. Unlike today, any storms should be quite isolated and will be unlikely to produce much in the way of gusty winds or heavy rain. There will be a better chance for more widespread showers and thunderstorms on Friday, however, as a shortwave trough quickly moves through the area, giving just enough atmospheric support to enhance the ability of storms to persist instead of the pulse type storms we will see Wednesday and Thursday. Extended (Sunday through next Tuesday)... Looking into the weekend and beyond, uncertainty grows fairly quickly as we find ourselves between an upper level ridge over the South Central US and an upper level trough positioned over or near the Pacific Northwest coastline. While these differences seem subtle (and they really are), the implications for us will be rather pronounced, as we could wind up seeing warm and dry conditions if the ridge controls our weather, or cooler and wetter if the trough is able to push further east and become a larger influence on our weather. For now, the forecast calls for chances of rain each day, with temperatures near average for this time of year. Ludwig && .AVIATION... 14/00Z TAF Period A band of showers and thunderstorms is presently located along a line from around KGTF-KHLN-KBZN, moving east. Primary terminal impacts have been brief heavy rain and erratic wind gusts. KGTF/KHVR/KLWT are expected to see additional SHRA/TSRA activity at times through late this evening. There will be a break overnight with a return to VFR conditions. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon, but not with enough confidence to place at specific terminals. Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 57 80 54 83 / 80 30 10 20 CTB 54 80 52 81 / 20 20 10 30 HLN 54 80 55 85 / 60 40 10 30 BZN 48 77 48 83 / 60 40 10 30 WYS 39 68 36 74 / 70 70 20 30 DLN 46 73 46 77 / 50 40 10 40 HVR 60 85 58 87 / 60 20 10 20 LWT 52 75 51 80 / 70 40 20 30 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls