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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
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269 FXUS65 KTFX 141734 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 904 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... The trend for scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue not only today, but through the rest of the work week as well. Some storms could also produce a brief period of heavier rainfall. The chance for storms will diminish a bit this weekend, as warmer afternoon temperatures move back in for a few days. && .UPDATE... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana Today. Pops were increased in northern Beaverhead, southern Hill, southern Blaine, eastern Choteau, and northern Fergus Counties this morning to better match current radar trends and Hi-res model guidance. RHs were increased today due to increased moisture around from last evening`s storms. The rest of the forecast is on track. -IG && .AVIATION... 14/18Z TAF Period Expect mainly VFR conditions across North Central and Southwestern Montana today, save for a few isolated showers. Best chance for an afternoon shower will be at KEKS and KWYS, where I have included TEMPO groups, but any terminal has about a 10-20% chance of seeing a brief shower today. Otherwise, expect light winds with non- restrictive cigs generally above 9,000 feet. Ludwig Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024/ Today through Friday...A weak westerly flow aloft currently reside over MT. Weak upper level disturbances are trying to move from west to east across the state, but with the flow aloft so weak, the disturbances are moving through very slowly. Thus morning showers/thunderstorms are possible, generally over the far north and far south. Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, again, but the overall coverage of storms should be less than yesterday. Afternoon temperatures today will not be as warm as yesterday today, but they do warm back up a few degrees for Thursday. Do expect areas of smoke to continue to move in/out over the next few days, with the smoke sometimes coming from the west and then sometimes from the north. Saturday through Wednesday...A bit drier conditions are expected over the weekend, as the flow aloft tries to become more southwesterly. This will allow warmer air to move back into the CWA for a few days, as afternoon highs go a few degrees above normal over portions of the CWA. It will not be completely dry over the CWA this weekend though, with a few thunderstorms possible, especially over far Southwest MT on Sunday. Isolated showers/thunderstorms return to much of the CWA early next week, as the southerly flow will allow for weak upper level disturbance to move northward through the CWA daily. Brusda && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 78 54 84 56 / 20 10 10 50 CTB 80 52 81 54 / 20 10 20 60 HLN 81 54 86 56 / 20 10 20 60 BZN 79 48 84 49 / 30 10 10 50 WYS 68 36 74 38 / 70 20 20 60 DLN 74 46 78 46 / 40 10 30 50 HVR 85 58 87 59 / 40 10 10 20 LWT 76 52 81 54 / 30 10 10 30 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls