269
FXUS65 KTFX 141734
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
904 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The trend for scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
not only today, but through the rest of the work week as well.
Some storms could also produce a brief period of heavier rainfall.
The chance for storms will diminish a bit this weekend, as warmer
afternoon temperatures move back in for a few days.

&&

.UPDATE...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect North-central,
Central, and Southwestern Montana Today. Pops were increased in
northern Beaverhead, southern Hill, southern Blaine, eastern
Choteau, and northern Fergus Counties this morning to better
match current radar trends and Hi-res model guidance. RHs were
increased today due to increased moisture around from last
evening`s storms. The rest of the forecast is on track. -IG

&&

.AVIATION...
14/18Z TAF Period

Expect mainly VFR conditions across North Central and Southwestern
Montana today, save for a few isolated showers. Best chance for an
afternoon shower will be at KEKS and KWYS, where I have included
TEMPO groups, but any terminal has about a 10-20% chance of seeing a
brief shower today. Otherwise, expect light winds with non-
restrictive cigs generally above 9,000 feet. Ludwig

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 400 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024/
Today through Friday...A weak westerly flow aloft currently reside
over MT. Weak upper level disturbances are trying to move from
west to east across the state, but with the flow aloft so weak,
the disturbances are moving through very slowly. Thus morning
showers/thunderstorms are possible, generally over the far north
and far south. Isolated thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon, again, but the overall coverage of storms should be
less than yesterday. Afternoon temperatures today will not be as
warm as yesterday today, but they do warm back up a few degrees
for Thursday. Do expect areas of smoke to continue to move in/out
over the next few days, with the smoke sometimes coming from the
west and then sometimes from the north.

Saturday through Wednesday...A bit drier conditions are expected
over the weekend, as the flow aloft tries to become more
southwesterly. This will allow warmer air to move back into the
CWA for a few days, as afternoon highs go a few degrees above
normal over portions of the CWA. It will not be completely dry
over the CWA this weekend though, with a few thunderstorms
possible, especially over far Southwest MT on Sunday. Isolated
showers/thunderstorms return to much of the CWA early next week,
as the southerly flow will allow for weak upper level disturbance
to move northward through the CWA daily. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  78  54  84  56 /  20  10  10  50
CTB  80  52  81  54 /  20  10  20  60
HLN  81  54  86  56 /  20  10  20  60
BZN  79  48  84  49 /  30  10  10  50
WYS  68  36  74  38 /  70  20  20  60
DLN  74  46  78  46 /  40  10  30  50
HVR  85  58  87  59 /  40  10  10  20
LWT  76  52  81  54 /  30  10  10  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls