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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
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565 FXUS65 KTFX 151959 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 159 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... It will be sunny start to the day, expect for some dense morning fog around West Yellowstone. Otherwise, expect showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon over Southwest MT, with the storms moving northeast into North Central MT this evening. Some storms could produce strong wind gusts. There will be another chance for storms on Friday, especially in the Havre area. It turns warm over the weekend, with afternoon highs in the 90s for some areas by Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Key Points: -A few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and Friday afternoon, some of which may cause gusty winds -Near to slightly below average temperatures expected through the first half of next week Short term (through Friday)... As an upper level trough moves into the area from the Pacific Northwest this afternoon and evening, a few showers and thunderstorms have begun to develop, mostly over the higher terrain. Expect these showers and thunderstorms to gradually grow and become detached from the higher terrain by mid to late afternoon, especially south and west of a line from Cut Bank to Great Falls to White Sulphur Springs. While most of these showers and storms should be run of the mill cells, a few of the storms may be able to produce some gusty winds to 50 mph, mainly south of I-90 on the east side of the divide. Showers and thunderstorms will move northeastward overnight and for the day on Friday, resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms across the plains, though any location will be unlikely to see rain last for an extended period of time. Like today, a few of the storms may be able to produce a few isolated wind gusts to 40-50 mph, but severe storms are not expected to be a major concern. Ludwig Saturday through Thursday...An upper level ridge will try to build over the CWA over the weekend, but our CWA will generally be in the southwesterly flow of the ridge. This will allow for warmer air to move into the CWA over the weekend and into early next week. It will also allow for weak upper level disturbances to move northeastward through the CWA producing a few showers/thunderstorms. With afternoon temperatures approaching/slight above 90 degrees by early next week, there will be enough instability that a few strong storms will be possible, however, the dynamics are fairly weak so widespread severe weather is unlikely at this time. By late next week afternoon temperatures are progged to start to cool down a few degrees, as the upper level ridge starts to move off to our east. Brusda && .AVIATION... 15/18Z TAF Period At all terminals, excluding the KWYS terminal, VFR conditions will prevail during this TAF period, except during thunderstorms. There are IFR-level ceilings at the KWYS terminal which will gradually improve to VFR-levels by 00Z. From 22Z to 00Z there is a 40% chance for thunderstorms at the KEKS land KWYS terminals. From 00Z through 12Z there is a 50 - 70% chance for showers and thunderstorms at all terminals excluding the KHVR and KLWT terminals. During any thunderstorm that affects a terminal visibility will be reduced to MVFR-levels. Thunderstorms will produce gusty erratic winds, frequent lightning, and brief heavy rainfall. During thunderstorms there will be mountain obscuration. There is a 20% chance between 10 and 14Z for fog at the KBZN and KEKS terminals. There will be fog at the KWYS terminal between 10Z and 14Z reducing visibility to at least low IFR-levels. At the KGTF, KCTB, KHVR, and KLWT terminals there is a 40% chance for showers from 12Z through at least the end of the TAF period. During most of this TAF period there will be mountain obscuration around the KWYS terminal. -IG Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 84 57 81 53 / 0 50 60 20 CTB 82 54 74 48 / 10 60 80 20 HLN 85 55 83 54 / 10 60 40 30 BZN 83 48 83 48 / 10 60 20 30 WYS 75 38 73 36 / 20 70 10 10 DLN 78 46 78 45 / 60 60 10 10 HVR 87 58 84 55 / 0 10 50 60 LWT 81 54 80 50 / 10 20 60 30 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls