386
FXUS65 KTFX 152343
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
543 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024

...Aviation Section Updated...

.SYNOPSIS...

Showers and thunderstorms will lift northward across the region this
afternoon and evening. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be
around at times Friday into the weekend, with temperatures largely
near normal through the upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Key Points:

-A few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and Friday
afternoon, some of which may cause gusty winds

-Near to slightly below average temperatures expected through
the first half of next week

Short term (through Friday)... As an upper level trough moves
into the area from the Pacific Northwest this afternoon and
evening, a few showers and thunderstorms have begun to develop,
mostly over the higher terrain. Expect these showers and
thunderstorms to gradually grow and become detached from the
higher terrain by mid to late afternoon, especially south and west
of a line from Cut Bank to Great Falls to White Sulphur Springs.
While most of these showers and storms should be run of the mill
cells, a few of the storms may be able to produce some gusty winds
to 50 mph, mainly south of I-90 on the east side of the divide.
Showers and thunderstorms will move northeastward overnight and
for the day on Friday, resulting in scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the plains, though any location will be
unlikely to see rain last for an extended period of time. Like
today, a few of the storms may be able to produce a few isolated
wind gusts to 40-50 mph, but severe storms are not expected to be
a major concern. Ludwig

Saturday through Thursday...An upper level ridge will try to
build over the CWA over the weekend, but our CWA will generally be
in the southwesterly flow of the ridge. This will allow for
warmer air to move into the CWA over the weekend and into early
next week. It will also allow for weak upper level disturbances to
move northeastward through the CWA producing a few
showers/thunderstorms. With afternoon temperatures
approaching/slight above 90 degrees by early next week, there will
be enough instability that a few strong storms will be possible,
however, the dynamics are fairly weak so widespread severe weather
is unlikely at this time. By late next week afternoon
temperatures are progged to start to cool down a few degrees, as
the upper level ridge starts to move off to our east. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
16/00Z TAF Period

The initial concern this TAF period will be for showers and
thunderstorms lifting generally northward across Southwest and
Central Montana into North-central Montana this evening and
overnight. The greatest concern with thunderstorms will be for
lightning, briefly gusty and erratic winds, and small hail.
Meanwhile across eastern portions of the Hi-Line (KHVR), wildfire
smoke continues to result in reduced visibility. This smoke may move
a bit westward and southwestward across the plains later tonight,
but confidence in impacts was too low to introduce smoke/haze
mentions at KCTB, KGTF, and KLWT at this time. Guidance suggests
another push of smoke Friday morning in the KHVR area, resulting in
another period of reduced visibility there. Otherwise the remaining
concern will be for fog in the KWYS area again tonight. Confidence
in fog was too low to include in other Southwest Montana valleys at
this time. -AM

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  84  57  81  53 /   0  50  60  20
CTB  82  54  74  48 /  10  60  80  20
HLN  85  55  83  54 /  10  60  40  30
BZN  83  48  83  48 /  10  60  20  30
WYS  75  38  73  36 /  20  70  10  10
DLN  78  46  78  45 /  60  60  10  10
HVR  87  58  84  55 /   0  10  50  60
LWT  81  54  80  50 /  10  20  60  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls