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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
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206 FXUS65 KTFX 160317 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 917 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms will lift northward across the region this afternoon and evening. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be around at times Friday into the weekend, with temperatures largely near normal through the upcoming week. && .UPDATE... An upper level disturbance pivoting through southwesterly flow aloft across the Northern Rockies continues to result in showers and thunderstorms across the region. The expectation is for these showers and thunderstorms to continue northward through the overnight and into early tomorrow. The threat for strong winds gusts is waning with loss of daytime heating, but lightning strikes will continue to be a threat through the night. Skies look to clear overnight from south to north across Southwest Montana. Given precipitation in many Southwest Montana valleys today, fog looks to be a relatively safe bet for the morning tomorrow. No significant changes were needed this evening, as the ongoing forecast has had a good handle on the situation. -AM && .AVIATION... 16/00Z TAF Period The initial concern this TAF period will be for showers and thunderstorms lifting generally northward across Southwest and Central Montana into North-central Montana this evening and overnight. The greatest concern with thunderstorms will be for lightning, briefly gusty and erratic winds, and small hail. Meanwhile across eastern portions of the Hi-Line (KHVR), wildfire smoke continues to result in reduced visibility. This smoke may move a bit westward and southwestward across the plains later tonight, but confidence in impacts was too low to introduce smoke/haze mentions at KCTB, KGTF, and KLWT at this time. Guidance suggests another push of smoke Friday morning in the KHVR area, resulting in another period of reduced visibility there. Otherwise the remaining concern will be for fog in the KWYS area again tonight. Confidence in fog was too low to include in other Southwest Montana valleys at this time. -AM Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024/ Key Points: -A few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and Friday afternoon, some of which may cause gusty winds -Near to slightly below average temperatures expected through the first half of next week Short term (through Friday)... As an upper level trough moves into the area from the Pacific Northwest this afternoon and evening, a few showers and thunderstorms have begun to develop, mostly over the higher terrain. Expect these showers and thunderstorms to gradually grow and become detached from the higher terrain by mid to late afternoon, especially south and west of a line from Cut Bank to Great Falls to White Sulphur Springs. While most of these showers and storms should be run of the mill cells, a few of the storms may be able to produce some gusty winds to 50 mph, mainly south of I-90 on the east side of the divide. Showers and thunderstorms will move northeastward overnight and for the day on Friday, resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms across the plains, though any location will be unlikely to see rain last for an extended period of time. Like today, a few of the storms may be able to produce a few isolated wind gusts to 40-50 mph, but severe storms are not expected to be a major concern. Ludwig Saturday through Thursday...An upper level ridge will try to build over the CWA over the weekend, but our CWA will generally be in the southwesterly flow of the ridge. This will allow for warmer air to move into the CWA over the weekend and into early next week. It will also allow for weak upper level disturbances to move northeastward through the CWA producing a few showers/thunderstorms. With afternoon temperatures approaching/slight above 90 degrees by early next week, there will be enough instability that a few strong storms will be possible, however, the dynamics are fairly weak so widespread severe weather is unlikely at this time. By late next week afternoon temperatures are progged to start to cool down a few degrees, as the upper level ridge starts to move off to our east. Brusda && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 57 81 53 85 / 50 60 20 0 CTB 54 74 48 81 / 70 80 20 0 HLN 55 83 54 88 / 60 40 30 0 BZN 48 83 48 88 / 70 20 30 0 WYS 38 73 36 80 / 70 10 10 0 DLN 46 78 45 83 / 60 10 10 0 HVR 58 84 55 87 / 30 50 60 0 LWT 54 80 50 85 / 20 60 30 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls