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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
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661 FXUS65 KTFX 202359 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 559 PM MDT Sat Jul 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to drift across North Central and Southwestern Montana through the remainder of this afternoon and evening before dying down after sunset. Expect the warmth to continue and build through mid week, with many lower elevations areas seeing temperatures climb into the upper 90s to low 100s for midweek. A cold front arrives on Thursday, bringing gusty winds and thunderstorms before temperatures cool a few degrees for the end of the week. && .UPDATE... 6 PM Update...just updated forecast to add isolated thunderstorms this evening over a good portion of the CWA. Most storms will produce a brief period of rain, lightning and wind gusts to 35 mph. Pea size hail is possible from the stronger storms. Temperatures just freshened towards current trends. Brusda && .AVIATION... 21/00Z TAF Period VFR conditions prevail this TAF period. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be around this evening through 03Z or so. The concern with these showers and thunderstorms will be for erratic winds gusts. Otherwise largely benign conditions are forecast through the remainder of the overnight into Sunday morning. A few mountain showers or thunderstorms cannot be ruled out tomorrow but look to be quite isolated. Wildfire smoke may result in reduced slant-range visibility. Density altitude issues will remain a concern Sunday. -AM Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .FIRE WEATHER... A ridge breakdown on Thursday may bring a round of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms and gusty winds across the area. Given the extended period of warm and dry weather preceding this ridge breakdown, Thursday will need to be watched closely for elevated to critical fire danger due to the storms and wind. Ludwig && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM MDT Sat Jul 20 2024/ Key Points: -Warm to hot weather continues through Thursday with occasional showers and thunderstorms -Upper level ridge breakdown on Thursday will result in more scattered showers and thunderstorms, along with increased wind speeds, which may result in elevated to critical fire danger Short term (through Wednesday)... Upper level ridging will continue to remain parked over the Northern Rockies through the first half of next week. With this ridge in place, temperatures will remain warm through the weekend and early next week, before the ridge amplifies ahead of an approaching trough. When this ridge amplifies Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures will warm further to the upper 90s/low 100s across the lower elevations. As far as precipitation goes over the next few days, expect most areas to remain dry with just a few slow moving afternoon showers and thunderstorms that pop up during the peak heating hours. While the main threat from these showers and storms will be lightning, isolated small hail or gusty winds cant be completely ruled out given the dry air mass in place near the surface. Extended (Wednesday through next Saturday)... Our upper level ridge will face its first challenge this week as an upper level trough approaching from the Pacific begins to intrude into its turf over the Northern Rockies. As this trough facilitates the collapse of the ridge over the Northern Rockies, expect winds to become breezy across North Central and Southwestern Montana as a cold front approaches, with showers and thunderstorms expected to develop along and ahead of this front. While the storms themselves could bring gusty winds in addition to the lightning threat, the gusty winds behind the cold front that usher in the cooler air may be the bigger concern, as they could help fan the flames of any fires that manage to start from the thunderstorms. This system will need to be watched closely by those with fire weather interests. Behind this system, broad upper level troughing will allow temperatures to be a bit cooler than they have been, with most areas seeing highs in the mid to upper 80s for most lower elevation areas on Friday and Saturday, with just an outside chance of a shower expected at this time. Ludwig && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 60 92 61 94 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 57 92 58 93 / 20 0 0 0 HLN 62 96 62 98 / 10 0 0 0 BZN 55 92 56 94 / 20 0 0 0 WYS 43 82 43 85 / 20 0 0 10 DLN 52 87 53 89 / 20 0 0 10 HVR 61 94 62 96 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 57 87 57 89 / 20 10 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls