Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
637 FXXX10 KWNP 150031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Aug 15 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 15-Aug 17 2024 is 3.67 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 15-Aug 17 2024 Aug 15 Aug 16 Aug 17 00-03UT 3.00 2.33 3.00 03-06UT 3.67 2.67 2.67 06-09UT 2.67 2.67 2.67 09-12UT 2.33 2.00 2.00 12-15UT 1.33 1.67 1.67 15-18UT 1.33 2.00 1.67 18-21UT 1.67 2.00 2.67 21-00UT 1.67 2.00 2.00 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 15-Aug 17 2024 Aug 15 Aug 16 Aug 17 S1 or greater 15% 15% 10% Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms through 17 Aug. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Aug 14 2024 0640 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 15-Aug 17 2024 Aug 15 Aug 16 Aug 17 R1-R2 75% 75% 75% R3 or greater 25% 25% 25% Rationale: (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a chance for (R3-Strong) radio blackouts through 17 Aug.