Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
536 FXXX10 KWNP 111231 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Jul 11 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 11-Jul 13 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 11-Jul 13 2025 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul 13 00-03UT 2.00 3.33 3.00 03-06UT 2.67 3.00 2.67 06-09UT 3.00 2.67 2.33 09-12UT 4.33 2.33 2.00 12-15UT 3.67 2.33 1.67 15-18UT 4.67 (G1) 2.67 2.33 18-21UT 2.33 2.33 2.67 21-00UT 3.00 2.67 2.67 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are expected on 11 Jul due to CH HSS onset. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 11-Jul 13 2025 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul 13 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 11-Jul 13 2025 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul 13 R1-R2 40% 40% 40% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) through 13 Jul, primarily due to the flare potential of Region 4136 as well as the region rotating around the SE limb.