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Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
113 FXXX10 KWNP 121231 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Aug 12 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 7 (NOAA Scale G3). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 12-Aug 14 2024 is 7.00 (NOAA Scale G3). NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 12-Aug 14 2024 Aug 12 Aug 13 Aug 14 00-03UT 6.33 (G2) 3.67 2.33 03-06UT 7.00 (G3) 4.00 2.00 06-09UT 7.00 (G3) 3.00 2.00 09-12UT 6.67 (G3) 2.33 2.00 12-15UT 6.67 (G3) 2.00 2.00 15-18UT 5.67 (G2) 2.00 2.00 18-21UT 4.67 (G1) 2.67 2.00 21-00UT 3.67 3.33 2.33 Rationale: G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) geomagnetic storms are expected on 12 Aug in response to CME influences. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 12-Aug 14 2024 Aug 12 Aug 13 Aug 14 S1 or greater 15% 15% 15% Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) storms through 14 Aug. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Aug 11 2024 2018 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 12-Aug 14 2024 Aug 12 Aug 13 Aug 14 R1-R2 75% 75% 75% R3 or greater 30% 30% 30% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events, over 12-14 Aug.