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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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467 FXUS62 KTBW 101339 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 939 AM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 934 AM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Southwesterly flow bringing a few showers to the coast this morning with the heavier showers up in Levy County. This trend will continue through the early afternoon before showers start push inland in the late afternoon and towards the east coast in the evening hours. No major changes needed to the forecast at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Upper ridge axis currently extends from the W Atlantic into the W Gulf with a weakness in ridge over FL while the surface ridge remains over S FL for generally SW steering wind flow pattern through the weekend. Expect the seabreeze regimes of 5 then 4 with isolated to scattered morning convection in the E Gulf and coastal areas moving inland through the afternoon and early evening. This pattern usually produces lower PoPs for the area and have trimmed the moist NBM PoPs slightly. The moist airmass will remain in place with spotty heat index values near 108 especially inland areas but don`t expect widespread conditions for a heat index advisory at this time. For next week, expect the surface ridge to shift a bit N and remain overhead with a lighter flow regime. Expect slow moving diurnal seabreeze and outflow boundary storms daily that will move slowly and may result in some localized flooding. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 824 AM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024 South to southwest flow today will result in showers and storms starting out on the west coast of Florida before shifting inland and then towards the east coast in the evening. This will result in terminals seeing storms forming mainly in the afternoon hours with things clearing out at the evening begins. Winds should be a little lighter today with afternoon wind speeds around 10 to 15 knots out of the west to southwest. && .MARINE... Southwest winds will keep a moderate chop on area waters with seas 2-3 ft today along with isolated overnight into morning showers or storms. The pressure gradient relaxes Sunday and early next week with winds and seas subsiding, although daily thunderstorms will be capable of creating locally higher winds and seas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Warm and humid summertime conditions will continue through the weekend with southwesterly wind flow and scattered showers and storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 91 80 91 79 / 50 20 60 10 FMY 92 78 94 78 / 60 10 60 10 GIF 93 77 96 77 / 70 20 60 10 SRQ 91 79 91 77 / 40 20 50 10 BKV 91 76 93 75 / 60 20 70 10 SPG 90 82 91 82 / 50 20 60 10 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 5 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley DECISION SUPPORT...ADavis UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...ADavis