Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
655 FXUS62 KTBW 082344 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 744 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Limited thunderstorms over the area this afternoon mainly in SW FL into S interior zones with very warm and rain free conditions through W Central FL and much of the Nature Coast with some drier air aloft as seen in an early look at the 00Z TBW sounding in progress. Have trimmed PoPs based on latest radar trends otherwise current fcst on track. The weak Bermuda ridge axis will set up directly over the C FL Peninsula into the E Central Gulf mid to late week with diurnal seabreeze storms daily with highest PoPs in S and interior zones. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) VFR conditions continue as lingering VCTS in SW FL terminals to end by 02Z with light winds and clearing skies overnight. ISOLD seabreeze TSRA Wed aft 18Z to add VCTS for now. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 149 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 This looks to be the last day of southwesterly flow as the ridge will be shifting north and looks to remain overhead through the weekend. For us this means we will see seabreeze thunderstorms activity starting in the afternoon inland and then spreading slowly towards the west coast in the last afternoon and evening hours. The main concern with this regime will be slow movement of the storms. This could lead to some localized flooding as storms form and sit over one area. && .MARINE... Issued at 149 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Ridge will be shifting overhead tonight. This will keep our winds around 5 knots through Saturday with variable directions. Out best chance for thunderstorm activity will be in the evening hours as storms slowly push off the coast. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 149 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Summertime convection and humidity will keep fire danger at a minimum. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 79 93 78 92 / 0 50 20 60 FMY 77 95 76 93 / 10 70 30 70 GIF 77 94 76 93 / 10 70 20 70 SRQ 77 93 75 91 / 10 40 30 60 BKV 74 92 73 93 / 0 60 20 60 SPG 79 90 78 89 / 10 40 30 60 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 1 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ RJD