467
FXUS62 KTBW 101339
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
939 AM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 934 AM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Southwesterly flow bringing a few showers to the coast this
morning with the heavier showers up in Levy County. This trend
will continue through the early afternoon before showers start
push inland in the late afternoon and towards the east coast in
the evening hours. No major changes needed to the forecast at this
time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge axis currently extends from the W Atlantic into the
W Gulf with a weakness in ridge over FL while the surface ridge
remains over S FL for generally SW steering wind flow pattern
through the weekend. Expect the seabreeze regimes of 5 then 4
with isolated to scattered morning convection in the E Gulf and
coastal areas moving inland through the afternoon and early
evening. This pattern usually produces lower PoPs for the area
and have trimmed the moist NBM PoPs slightly. The moist airmass
will remain in place with spotty heat index values near 108
especially inland areas but don`t expect widespread conditions for
a heat index advisory at this time.

For next week, expect the surface ridge to shift a bit N and remain
overhead with a lighter flow regime. Expect slow moving diurnal
seabreeze and outflow boundary storms daily that will move slowly
and may result in some localized flooding.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 824 AM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024

South to southwest flow today will result in showers and storms
starting out on the west coast of Florida before shifting inland
and then towards the east coast in the evening. This will result
in terminals seeing storms forming mainly in the afternoon hours
with things clearing out at the evening begins. Winds should be
a little lighter today with afternoon wind speeds around 10 to 15
knots out of the west to southwest.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds will keep a moderate chop on area waters with seas
2-3 ft today along with isolated overnight into morning showers or
storms. The pressure gradient relaxes Sunday and early next week
with winds and seas subsiding, although daily thunderstorms will
be capable of creating locally higher winds and seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and humid summertime conditions will continue through the weekend
with southwesterly wind flow and scattered showers and storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  80  91  79 /  50  20  60  10
FMY  92  78  94  78 /  60  10  60  10
GIF  93  77  96  77 /  70  20  60  10
SRQ  91  79  91  77 /  40  20  50  10
BKV  91  76  93  75 /  60  20  70  10
SPG  90  82  91  82 /  50  20  60  10

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 5
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...ADavis
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...ADavis