Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
881 FXUS62 KTBW 121230 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 830 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 816 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Generally, conditions are off to a quiet start as a light WSW flow remains dominant in a regime 4 setup. A few coastal showers have already popped up in response, but there isn`t really much of a thermal gradient yet and there is still SBCIN to keep parcels from rising. That should change here in the next hour or two, and more storms should begin to make their way onshore. The 12Z sounding shows a classic summertime atmosphere remains in place with a PW of 2.03 in noted in. There is ample instability, with over 1900 J/KG MLCAPE. However, lapse rates are weak (only 4.7 C/km in the lowest 3km) and 500mb temps are hovering around -5C. Overall, conditions suggest pretty typical summertime convection, with the highest POPs across the interior this afternoon and evening. The flow is also keeping conditions borderline for a heat advisory, but there have not been widespread heat indices exceeding 108 for the last couple days, and the environment has not changed. So holding off considering these variables, but will be watching. A few adjustments have been made to the POPs, but the rest of the forecast remains on track. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 816 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 A few showers are already popping up along the coast this morning. A light WSW flow is in place today, favoring earlier convection at Tampa Bay area terminals, but still afternoon to evening convection across SWFL. A brief period of MVFR to IFR impacts is possible if/when storms move on station, but confidence in exact timing is low for most sites, with the SWFL quickly pushing storms inland by later afternoon and into the evening. A more light and variable flow returns for the next couple days, with convection generally developing in the afternoon in response. && .MARINE... Issued at 400 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Ridge of high pressure gradually moves to our south keeping weak southwesterly flow with winds around 5 to 10 knots each day. Showers will be possible along the coast during the overnight and early morning periods. Winds will start to shift more northerly starting late Wednesday but will remain around 5 to 10 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 352 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 High pressure continues to dominate weather conditions with ample humidity in place across fire districts. West to southwesterly flow prevail over the next several days supporting showers along the coast to push inland each day. This pattern will keep fire weather concerns out of the area during this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 92 80 93 80 / 40 10 40 10 FMY 94 78 94 79 / 50 20 40 10 GIF 95 78 96 78 / 60 20 50 10 SRQ 92 78 92 78 / 40 10 30 10 BKV 93 75 94 76 / 50 10 40 10 SPG 92 83 93 83 / 30 10 30 10 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 1 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...Flannery PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Delerme