Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
576 FXUS62 KTBW 050609 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 209 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 144 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025 Light rain near terminals should dissipate over the next few hours. Most guidance supports a break on the activity until the early morning hours. Then, southwesterly winds should support showers and storms to develop over the water and move inland bringing on and off through the day. Convection should begin to temper down into the evening with VFR conditions prevailing. && .UPDATE... Issued at 845 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 Forecast generally on track this evening requiring no changes to existing grids. Primary concern remains convective cluster of showers and storms currently rapidly sweeping south across the Nature Coast and into parts of WCFL, including the offshore waters. Unfortunate timing for the arrival of the storms and associated hazards, particularly lightning, gusty winds and heavy downpours, as many evening Fourth of July festivities are underway. These storms will be sweeping through the Tampa Bay area over the next 1-2 hours, and it is highly advised that folks attending outdoor activities seek proper shelter until the storms have passed and conditions are safe to return outdoors. Showers and storms should generally diminish by late evening, with generally partly to mostly cloudy skies lingering overnight with a slight chance of a shower. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 89 78 90 80 / 70 50 70 20 FMY 89 77 91 77 / 70 40 50 0 GIF 89 76 91 76 / 80 40 70 0 SRQ 89 77 89 78 / 70 50 70 20 BKV 89 72 90 74 / 70 50 70 10 SPG 87 78 87 79 / 70 50 70 20 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 1 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 5 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Hurt/Delerme DECISION SUPPORT...Carlisle