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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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232 FXUS62 KTBW 121858 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 258 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 256 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 High pressure continues to be the dominant synoptic feature, with the axis centered over SWFL. In response, a WSW flow remains with decent storm motions over the northern and central part of the Florida peninsula. Conditions also look fairly warm and dry along much of the West Central Florida coast, with just a few coastal showers popping up. Across SWFL, the story is a little different. The flow is lighter, so the inward seabreeze propagation has been slow and limited. Showers are now beginning to pop up, with thunderstorms likely to start soon. Instability has remained fairly static through the day (in the 1500-2000 J/KG range) and PW values continue to be in the 2 to 2.5 inch range. Across SWFL, the drier air is beginning to work in across at the mid-levels. As this continues to spread over the remainder of the area, that is likely to reduce the overall coverage of storms in the days to come. The ridge axis will slide a little farther north over the next day or so, resulting in more light and variable flow across the entirety of the state. Storm motions will become light in response, and the sea breeze boundaries will be the primary focus for convection. However, the overall atmosphere is looking less conducive for convection across the region. While the background flow remains light for the next couple days at least, a hint of a northerly component should advect a slightly drier and more stable airmass into the region. Thursday into Friday, a trough axis over the NE looks to advect a cold front south, making it through our area. This favors even further drying. When combined with the expected subsidence as well, it looks very dry Friday and Saturday, with 20 to 25% at best. With drier air, it should feel nicer for much of the weekend, despite not being any cooler. A gradual return to more typical convective patterns for early next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 136 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Convection is pushing east at Tampa Bay area terminals, and should generally remain there. However, a few isolated showers have once again popped up over adjacent Gulf Waters, so will keep VCTS for a couple more hours to be safe. SWFL terminals are only just beginning to see TCUs along the sea breeze boundary, so anticipating convective development soon. With some drier air noted, haven`t opted for any TEMPOs at this time, however. Will monitor and add as needed. Conditions are looking generally drier for the next few days, and thus windows for convection are looking smaller. No other significant impacts appear on the horizon. && .MARINE... Issued at 256 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 A WSW flow continues with light winds and seas. There could be a slight uptick in winds and subsequent seas this weekend as the gradient tightens with a weak and dry front, but this does not look to be substantial. Drier and more stable air should mean less thunderstorms over the waters, but hazardous seas should still be expected in the vicinity of storms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 256 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Warm, humid conditions continue with scattered storms for the next few days. However, increasingly dry and stable air is expected over the next few days. Even so, no significant fire weather concerns exist at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 78 93 78 93 / 10 30 10 40 FMY 78 95 79 94 / 20 40 10 40 GIF 78 96 78 96 / 20 40 10 40 SRQ 78 93 78 92 / 10 20 10 30 BKV 76 93 76 95 / 10 30 10 40 SPG 83 93 83 92 / 10 20 10 30 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 1 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ Flannery