232
FXUS62 KTBW 121858
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
258 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

High pressure continues to be the dominant synoptic feature, with
the axis centered over SWFL. In response, a WSW flow remains with
decent storm motions over the northern and central part of the
Florida peninsula. Conditions also look fairly warm and dry along
much of the West Central Florida coast, with just a few coastal
showers popping up.

Across SWFL, the story is a little different. The flow is lighter,
so the inward seabreeze propagation has been slow and limited.
Showers are now beginning to pop up, with thunderstorms likely to
start soon. Instability has remained fairly static through the day
(in the 1500-2000 J/KG range) and PW values continue to be in the 2
to 2.5 inch range. Across SWFL, the drier air is beginning to work
in across at the mid-levels. As this continues to spread over the
remainder of the area, that is likely to reduce the overall coverage
of storms in the days to come.

The ridge axis will slide a little farther north over the next day
or so, resulting in more light and variable flow across the entirety
of the state. Storm motions will become light in response, and the
sea breeze boundaries will be the primary focus for convection.
However, the overall atmosphere is looking less conducive for
convection across the region. While the background flow remains
light for the next couple days at least, a hint of a northerly
component should advect a slightly drier and more stable airmass
into the region.

Thursday into Friday, a trough axis over the NE looks to advect a
cold front south, making it through our area. This favors even
further drying. When combined with the expected subsidence as well,
it looks very dry Friday and Saturday, with 20 to 25% at best. With
drier air, it should feel nicer for much of the weekend, despite not
being any cooler. A gradual return to more typical convective
patterns for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 136 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Convection is pushing east at Tampa Bay area terminals, and should
generally remain there. However, a few isolated showers have once
again popped up over adjacent Gulf Waters, so will keep VCTS for
a couple more hours to be safe. SWFL terminals are only just
beginning to see TCUs along the sea breeze boundary, so
anticipating convective development soon. With some drier air
noted, haven`t opted for any TEMPOs at this time, however. Will
monitor and add as needed. Conditions are looking generally drier
for the next few days, and thus windows for convection are looking
smaller. No other significant impacts appear on the horizon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

A WSW flow continues with light winds and seas. There could be a
slight uptick in winds and subsequent seas this weekend as the
gradient tightens with a weak and dry front, but this does not look
to be substantial. Drier and more stable air should mean less
thunderstorms over the waters, but hazardous seas should still be
expected in the vicinity of storms.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Warm, humid conditions continue with scattered storms for the next
few days. However, increasingly dry and stable air is expected over
the next few days. Even so, no significant fire weather concerns
exist at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  93  78  93 /  10  30  10  40
FMY  78  95  79  94 /  20  40  10  40
GIF  78  96  78  96 /  20  40  10  40
SRQ  78  93  78  92 /  10  20  10  30
BKV  76  93  76  95 /  10  30  10  40
SPG  83  93  83  92 /  10  20  10  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Flannery