229
FXUS62 KTBW 130023
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
823 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 823 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Surface high pressure holding across the Florida Peninsula setup
weak west-southwest flow, with isolated to scattered showers and
storms developing this afternoon. A few storms are still lingering
over the interior early this evening, but this remaining
convection is expected to dissipate over the next couple of hours,
with generally rain free conditions holding overnight.

The forecast looks on track for Tuesday, with continued west-
southwest flow, although a slightly drier airmass could limit rain
chances a bit more than what was seen today. Otherwise, heat index
values are forecast to come close to Heat Advisory criteria once
again. No significant changes planned for the evening update.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 823 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

VFR conditions are forecast to hold through Tuesday morning. A few
showers and storms will develop Tuesday afternoon along the coast,
shifting inland through mid to late afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

A WSW flow continues with light winds and seas. There could be a
slight uptick in winds and subsequent seas this weekend as the
gradient tightens with a weak and dry front, but this does not look
to be substantial. Drier and more stable air should mean less
thunderstorms over the waters, but hazardous seas should still be
expected in the vicinity of storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  93  78  93 /  10  30  10  40
FMY  78  95  79  94 /  20  40  10  40
GIF  78  96  78  96 /  20  40  10  40
SRQ  78  93  78  92 /  10  20  10  30
BKV  76  93  76  95 /  10  30  10  40
SPG  83  93  83  92 /  10  20  10  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Fleming
MARINE...Flannery